2024年2季度港股市场投资展望：养精蓄锐

2024年2季度港股市场投资展望：养精蓄锐 赵文利姜越邹炜 2024年3月28日 核心要点 一季度港股先跌后反弹，恒指短期在17000点附近仍面临较强阻力，未来需要更多政策利好及基本面的支持才能打开上行空间。 随着1月下旬恒指守稳前期低点（2022年10月低点）后反弹，港股熊市尾声的共识正在形成，2月以来南下资金净买入力度不断增强，外资交易型资金也阶段性回流中港股市，港股韧性不断增强。 二季度美联储有可能逐步放缓量化紧缩节奏，为年中减息做铺垫，但后续减息路径仍存不确定性。近期美元强势、非美货币承压，令短期流动性偏紧。 港股面临的上行催化剂主要包括：港股已陆续确认估值底、政策底、经济底、盈利底和流动性底，安全边际基本锁定；美联储的减息预期逐步强化，有望带来流动性改善；日本央行退出负利率，短期不会触发套息交易平仓潮；中国未来增量政策及经济表现有望超预期。 港股面临的下行风险主要包括：下半年美国大选临近，排华情绪容易带来地缘政治和贸易摩擦；美联储降息节奏可能与市场预期出现偏差，如降息间歇期拉长；高利率维持更久的环境下，造成环球商业房地产的进一步恶化；降息之后流动性改善的红利惠及港股的力度可能不及预期，资产配置角度，环球债市和外围新兴市场股票对于外资吸引力可能很高；美股集中度处于历史高位，一旦高位回调会对香港市场造成短期负面冲击；6月开始的欧洲议会选举，极右势力抬头，贸易保护主义风险将显著上升。 综合考虑内外环境，预计港股在二季度大致呈现区间震荡的W型走势、前低后高，恒生指数波动区间介于 16000-18000点，国企指数波动区间介于5500-6100点，科技指数介于3300-3900点。 投资建议：建议二季度维持区间交易和哑铃型配置策略，一方面继续持有高股息蓝筹，另一方面可精选互联网、科技、消费及制造业出海龙头。主题可关注：人工智能+、新质生产力、制造业出海、设备更新改造、以旧换新、消费复苏等。 ExecutiveSummary HongKongstocksinitiallyfellbutthenreboundedinthefirstquarter.Meanwhile,theHangSengIndexisstillfacingstrongresistancenear17000pointsintheshortterm.Morefavourablepoliciesandfundamentalsupportwillbeneededtogenerategreaterupside. InlateJanuary,theHangSengIndexfelltoalevelclosetoitsOctober2022low,beforestabilisingwithoutfurtherdeclinesthengraduallyrecovering,leadingtoagrowingconsensusthatHongKongstockshaveemergedfromthebearmarket.SinceFebruary,netbuyingofsouthboundfundscontinuedtostrengthen.ForeigntradingfundsalsoreturnedtotheHongKongandChinastockmarkets.SignsarethatHongKongstockresiliencecontinuestostrengthen. Inthesecondquarter,theUSFederalReserveislikelytograduallyslowthepaceofquantitativetightening,pavingthewayforinterestratecutsinthemiddleoftheyear.Thesubsequentpathforratecutsremainsuncertain.RecentstrengthintheUSdollarandpressureonnon-UScurrencieshavetightenedshort-termliquidity. UpsidecatalystsforHongKongequitiesinclude:HongKongstocksmovingawayfromtheirdarkesthour(thevaluationbottom,policybottom,economicbottom,earningsbottom,andliquiditybottom);limiteddownsideriskgoingforward;theexpectationofFedinterestratecutsstrengthening,possiblyleadingtoliquidityimprovement;theremotelikelihoodtheBankofJapan'sexitfromnegativeinterestrateswillsparkglobalmargincallsonyencarrytrade;andthelikelihoodChina'sfuturepotentialpolicyandeconomicperformancewillexceedexpectations. ThemaindownsideriskstoHongKongequitiesincludetheapproachoftheUSelectioninNovember,anti-Chinasentimentcausinggeopoliticalandtradefrictions;theFed'spaceofinterestratecutsdeviatingfrommarketexpectations(e.g.interestratecutintervalsbeingextended);higher-for-longerinterestratesresultinginfurtherdeteriorationintheglobalcommercialrealestatemarket;liquidityimprovementafterratecutsthatisnotassupportiveasexpectedfortheHongKongstockmarketgiventhatforeigninvestorsmaypreferglobalbondsandotheremergingmarketequities;theall-time-highconcentrationofUSequities,whichwillhaveashort-termnegativeeffectontheHongKongmarketintheeventofapullback;EuropeanParliamentaryelectionstobeheldinJuneleadingtoasharpswingtothepoliticalright,andtheassociatedriskofafar-rightEUandtradeprotectionism. Afterathoroughreviewoftheinternalandexternalenvironment,weexpecttheHongKongstockmarkettofollowaW-shapedpatterninthesecondquarter,startingfromalowandthenrising,withtheHangSengIndexfluctuatingbetween16000and18000points,theHangSengChinaEnterprisesIndexfluctuatingbetween5500and6100points,andtheHangSengTECHIndexfluctuatingbetween3300and3900points. Ourassetallocationrecommendation:Werecommendinvestorsengageinrangetradingfollowingadumbbellallocationstrategyintheequitymarketinthesecondquarter.Wealsorecommendcontinuingtoholdblue-chipstockswithhighdividends,andselectingleadersintheinternet,technology,consumerandoverseasmanufacturingsectors.Finally,werecommendfocusingonthefollowinginvestmentthemes:AI+,newqualityproductiveforces,China'soverseasmanufacturing,equipmentupgradesandtrade-ins,andtheconsumerrecovery. 恒指按月度下跌基本不超过37个月，且在下跌的后半段多呈现波动走高的类似“W”型筑底走势 大部分剧烈下跌发生在周期的前半段，而周期的中后段通常是震荡筑底和估值修复阶段，继续大幅下行的空间有限 我们此前预测2024年可以看到本轮熊市的末尾，随着1月下旬恒指守稳前期低点（2022年10月低点）后反弹，港股熊市尾声的共识正在形成，韧性不断增强。 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 4,500 1981年7月至1984年7月(36个月) 36个月 1987年10月至1990年9月(35个月) 35个月 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1981-06 1981-08 1981-10 1981-12 1982-02 1982-04 1982-06 1982-08 1982-10 1982-12 1983-02 1983-04 1983-06 1983-08 1983-10 1983-12 1984-02 1984-04 1984-06 1984-08 1984-10 1986-10 1986-12 1987-02 1987-04 1987-06 1987-08 1987-10 1987-12 1988-02 1988-04 1988-06 1988-08 1988-10 1988-12 1989-02 1989-04 1989-06 1989-08 1989-10 1989-12 1990-02 1990-04 1990-06 1990-08 1990-10 1990-12 1991-02 1991-04 1991-06 1991-08 1,500 37个月 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 2000年3月至2003年4月(37个月) 32,000 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 1999-08 1999-10 1999-12 2000-02 2000-04 2000-06 2000-08 2000-10 2000-12 2001-02 2001-04 2001-06 2001-08 2001-10 2001-12 2002-02 2002-04 2002-06 2002-08 2002-10 2002-12 2003-02 2003-04 2003-06 2003-08 2003-10 2003-12 2004-02 2004-04 12,000 2021年3月至今(已36个月) 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 20