2024年亚洲发展展望（四月版）报告

APRIL  ASIAN DEVELOPMENTOUTLOOK APRIL  Creative Commons Attribution . IGO license (CC BY . IGO) ©  Asian Development BankADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City,  Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel      ; Fax     www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in . ISBN ˆ‰-ˆ-ˆ‰- ‰-ˆ (print); ˆ‰-ˆ-ˆ‰- -(PDF); ˆ‰-ˆ-ˆ‰- ˆ- (ebook)ISSN ‰- (print), ˆˆ -‰X (PDF)Publication Stock No. FLS-DOI: http://dx.doi.org/. ‰/FLS- The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution . IGO license (CC BY . IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/./igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-useŸopenaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “£” refers to US dollars.ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China; “China” as the People’s Republic of China; “Korea” and “South Korea”as the Republic of Korea; “Russia” as the Russian Federation; and “Vietnam” as Viet Nam. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. ForewordAcknowledgmentsDefinitions and AssumptionsAbbreviations ADO April —Highlights Robust Growth Amid Uncertain External Prospects Growth Momentum Continues as Inflation Eases¯Regional Outlook Remains Resilient°±Several Downside Risks Could Weigh on the Regional Outlook³°Special Topic´ Asia’s Rebounding Semiconductors Sector and the Role of Artificial Intelligence³μAnnex´ Global Growth Slows Slightly as Inflation Tamed¯° Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia € Caucasus and Central AsiaArmenia AzerbaijanGeorgiaKazakhstanKyrgyz RepublicTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan East AsiaHong Kong» ChinaMongoliaPeople’s Republic of ChinaRepublic of KoreaTaipei»China South AsiaAfghanistan BangladeshBhutanIndiaMaldivesNepalPakistanSri Lanka Southeast Asia Brunei DarussalamCambodiaIndonesiaLao People’s Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandTimor-LesteViet Nam The Pacific FijiPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsVanuatuCentral Pacific EconomiesNorth Pacific EconomiesSouth Pacific Economies Statistical Appendix FOREWORD Prospects for Asia and the Pacific remain strong as the post-pandemic recovery continues» with growth projectedat ¯¼º½ in both °·°¯ and °·°±¼ Despite a property-driven slowdown in the People’s Republic of China» healthydomestic demand in many economies—including in South and Southeast Asia—will drive the region’s expansion¼At the same time» challenges remain¼ This year’sAsian Development Outlookhighlights the region’s vulnerability to escalating geopolitical tensions andconflict» which could disrupt supply chains and reignite inflationary pressures¼ The report also documents how publicdebt has stabilized in many economies following pandemic-related stimulus» but debt levels remain higher thanbefore the pandemic¼ Elevated interest rates and slow revenue growth continue to pose a challenge to public financesthroughout the region¼ Policies aimed at boosting the region’s resilience to external shocks will be key¼ Governments in the region mustcalibrate and coordinate fiscal and monetary policies¼ With development partners» they must continue to supportregional cooperation on trade and investment to strengthen supply chains¼ They must also strengthen social safetynets for the most vulnerable populations and bolster energy and food security¼ Moreover» policymakers in the region should ensure that reduced fiscal space does not