2024年亚洲发展展望（四月版）报告

ASIANDEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK APRIL2024 ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK ASIANDEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK APRIL2024 ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK CreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO) ©2024AsianDevelopmentBank 6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity,1550MetroManila,PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444 www.adb.org Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2024. ISBN978-92-9270-657-9(print);978-92-9270-658-6(PDF);978-92-9270-659-3(ebook)ISSN0117-0481(print),1996-725X(PDF) PublicationStockNo.FLS240221-3 DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS240221-3 TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicareainthisdocument,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea. ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. ThisCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedtoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial. Pleasecontactpubsmarketing@adb.orgifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo. CorrigendatoADBpublicationsmaybefoundathttp://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Notes: Inthispublication,“$”referstoUSdollars. ADBrecognizes“HongKong”asHongKong,China;“China”asthePeople’sRepublicofChina;“Korea”and“SouthKorea”astheRepublicofKorea;“Russia”astheRussianFederation;and“Vietnam”asVietNam. CoverdesignbyAnthonyVictoria. CoverartworkrenderedbySamanthaTylicensedexclusivelytoADB©2024“Collision”SamanthaTy. CONTENTS Foreword v Acknowledgments vi DefinitionsandAssumptions vii Abbreviations viii ADOApril2024—Highlights xi PART1RobustGrowthAmidUncertainExternalProspects 1 GrowthMomentumContinuesasInflationEases 4 RegionalOutlookRemainsResilient 25 SeveralDownsideRisksCouldWeighontheRegionalOutlook 32 SpecialTopic:Asia’sReboundingSemiconductorsSectorandtheRoleofArtificialIntelligence 37 Annex:GlobalGrowthSlowsSlightlyasInflationTamed 42 PART2EconomicTrendsandProspectsinDevelopingAsia 51 CaucasusandCentralAsia 53 Armenia 55 Azerbaijan 60 Georgia 65 Kazakhstan 70 KyrgyzRepublic 76 Tajikistan 81 Turkmenistan 87 Uzbekistan 91 EastAsia 97 HongKong,China 99 Mongolia 105 People’sRepublicofChina 110 RepublicofKorea 118 Taipei,China 123 ivContents SouthAsia127 Afghanistan129 Bangladesh134 Bhutan141 India146 Maldives154 Nepal159 Pakistan164 SriLanka170 SoutheastAsia177 BruneiDarussalam179 Cambodia183 Indonesia187 LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic194 Malaysia200 Myanmar206 Philippines210 Singapore216 Thailand220 Timor-Leste225 VietNam230 ThePacific237 Fiji239 PapuaNewGuinea243 SolomonIslands247 Vanuatu251 CentralPacificEconomies255 NorthPacificEconomies260 SouthPacificEconomies265 PART3 StatisticalAppendix269 FOREWORD ProspectsforAsiaandthePacificremainstrongasthepost-pandemicrecoverycontinues,withgrowthprojectedat4.9%inboth2024and2025.Despiteaproperty-drivenslowdowninthePeople’sRepublicofChina,healthydomesticdemandinmanyeconomies—includinginSouthandSoutheastAsia—willdrivetheregion’sexpansion.Atthesametime,challengesremain. Thisyear’sAsianDevelopmentOutlookhighlightstheregion’svulnerabilitytoescalatinggeopoliticaltensionsandconflict,whichcoulddisruptsupplychainsandreigniteinflationarypressures.Thereportalsodocumentshowpublicdebthasstabilizedinmanyeconomiesfollowingpandemic-relatedstimulus,butdebtlevelsremainhigherthanbeforethepandemic.Elevatedinterestratesandslowrevenuegrowthcontinuetoposeachallengetopublicfinancesthroughouttheregion. Policiesaimedatboostingtheregion’sresiliencetoexternalshockswillbekey.Governmentsintheregionmustcalibrateandcoordinatefiscalandmonetarypolicies.Withdevelopmentpartners,theymustcontinuetosupportregionalcooperationontradeandinvestmenttostrengthensupplychains.Theymustalsostrengthensocialsafetynetsforthemostvulnerablepopulationsandbolsterenergyandfoodsecurity. Moreover,policymakersintheregionshouldensurethatreducedfiscalspacedoesnotleadtofurtherdelaysinsupportingpriorityareas.Thisincludesinfrastructureprojectsneededtosupportgrowthandsubstantialgreeninvestmentstodecarbonizeeconomiesandadapttoclimatechange.Policymakersmustmobilizerevenuesandreorientspendingtowardtheseprio