哈萨克斯坦：加强公共财政促进包容性和韧性增长：公共财政审查（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized ReportNo: KAZAKHSTAN PUBLICFINANCEREVIEW June2023 ©2023TheWorldBank 1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSomerightsreserved ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBank.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsofTheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesthedisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows: “WorldBank.2023. Kazakhstan:strengtheningpublicfinanceforinclusiveandresilientgrowth.Publicfinancereview.©WorldBank.” Paintingcredit: Tolepbay,Yerbolat.Coverpage:Pathway.2020.Backcover:RoadtotheTemple.2020.CourtesyofthePygmalionGallery,Astana.https://www.tolepbay.com/ Allqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. KAZAKHSTAN: STRENGTHENINGPUBLICFINANCEFORINCLUSIVE ANDRESILIENTGROWTH PUBLICFINANCEREVIEW Abbreviations ALMPsActivelabormarketprograms ASPRAgencyforStrategicPlanningandReformASPRAgencyforStrategicPlanningandReformBEPSBaseErosionandProfitShifting BoDBoardofDirectors BNSBureauofNationalStatistics CEQCommitmenttoEquity CIPACommitteeforInternalPublicAuditCPIConsumerPriceIndex CFCsControlledforeigncorporations CITCorporateincometax DBKDevelopmentBankofKazakhstanDSGEDynamicstochasticgeneralequilibriumEPUEconomicPlanningUnit ETSEmissionTradingSystem ECAEuropeandCentralAsia EPTExcessprofittax EBFsExtrabudgetaryfunds FSCFinancialStabilityCommittee GFSMGovernmentFiscalStatisticsManual GHGGreenhousegas GNIGrossnationalincome HIESHouseholdIncomeandEconomySurveyIFIsIndependentfiscalinstitutions ICILSInternationalComputerandInformationLiteracyStudyIMFInternationalMonetaryFund IPSASInternationalPublicSectorAccountingStandardsISSAInternationalSocialSecurityAssociation IDRIssuerDefaultRatings JERPJointEconomicResearchProgram JSCJointStockCompany KSFKazakhstanSustainabilityFund KTGKazTransGas SAILawonExternalAudit MTBFMedium-termbudgetframework MTDSMedium-termdebtmanagementstrategyMTEFMedium-termexpenditureframeworkMETMineralextractiontax MENRMinistryofEcologyandNaturalResourcesMoESMinistryofEducationandScience MoEMinistryofEnlightenment/EducationMoFMinistryofFinance MLSPMinistryofLaborandSocialProtectionofPopulation MoSHEMinistryofScienceandHigherEducationMNEMinistryoftheNationalEconomy DPDDebtPolicyDepartmentoftheMinistryofNationalEconomySBDStateBorrowingDepartmentoftheMinistryofFinanceM&EMonitoringandevaluation NBKNationalBankofKazakhstanNEDBNationalEducationDatabaseNEPNationalEducationProject NFRKNationalFundoftheRepublicofKazakhstan NDCsNationallyDeterminedContributionsNISNazarbayevIntellectualSchoolsNGOsNon-governmentalorganizationsNPLsNon-performingloans OBSOpenBudgetSurvey OECDOrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentOBBOutcome-BasedBudgeting PCFPer-capitafinancing PM&EPerformance,monitoring,andevaluation PBBPerformance-basedbudgetingPITPersonalincometax PLFProblemLoanFund PISAProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessmentPEFAPublicExpenditureandFinancialAccountabilityPERPublicExpenditureReview PFRPublicFinanceReview PFMPublicfinancialmanagement PPPPurchasingpowerparity QFAsQuasi-fiscalactivities QFEsQuasi-fiscalentities RBCRepublicanBudgetCommissionSKSamruk-Kazyna SMEsSmallandmediumenterprises SWFSovereignWealthFundSEZsSpecialEconomicZones SHIFStateHealthInsuranceFundSRCStateRevenueCommitteeSSIFStateSocialInsuranceFundSOEsState-ownedenterprisesSNGsSubnationalgovernmentsSCDSystematicCountryDiagnostic TDTsTargeteddevelopmenttransfers TEATaxexpenditureanalysis TVETTechnicalvocationaleducationandtrainingUAPFUnifiedAccumulativePensionFund UNDPUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme VATValue-addedtax MFModWorldBank’smacro-fiscalmodelWHOWorldHealthOrganization YoYYear-on-year Contents Acknowledgments9 Introduction10 1. StrengtheningtheFiscalFrameworkforInclusiveandResilientGrowth 12 1.1.FiscalResponseamidGrowingMacroChallenges 13 1.2AssessmentoftheFiscalPosture 16 1.2.1Sizeoffiscaloperations 16 1.2.2Rigidityingovernmentspending:modestbutrising 19 1.2.3Theuseofquasi-fiscalactivities 20 1.2.4Governmentspendingandtaxmultipliers 21 1.2.5Cyclicalityofthefiscalposition 23 1.2.6Distributiveeffectoffiscalpolicies 25 1.3TheRulesUnderpinningtheFiscalFramework 28 1.3.1Improvedbutwithtoomanytargets 28 1.3.2Thenewfiscalrules:intentionversusimplementation 30 1.3.3