开年首周，人民币汇率能否延续升值行情

1 2 I2024 10CPI 20111290 FOMC 1 2-1 5 7.065-7.175 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1..............................................................................1 1.2..........................................................................2 1.2.1.............................................................................................2 1.2.2.............................................................................................5 1.2.3.............................................................................................6 2.................................................................................................7 2.1-..................................................................7 2.2.......................................................................7 2.2.1.....................................................................................7 2.2.2.....................................................................................8 2.2.3..................................................................................9 2.2.4................................................................................10 2.3.................................................................................11 2.3.1..................................................................11 2.3.2.............................................................12 3........................................................................................13 3.1.................................................................13 3.2...................................................................................15 3.3..........................................................16 ...........................................................................................17 ..................................................................................................18 ……………………………………………………………………………….19 .........................................................................................................20 ......................................................................................................20 1.1.1 ..................................................................................................1 1.1.120231225-29.........2 1.1.2 .....................................................................2 1.2.12023 ...................................................................................................................3 1.2.12015-2022USDCNH .................................................................................................................................4 2.1.1 ...............................................................................................7 2.2.1 ..........................................................7 2.2.2 ..............................................................7 2.2.3 ..........................................................8 2.2.4 ................................................................................8 2.2.5 % ..............................................................9 2.2.6 ...................................................................10 2.2.7 NDF USDCNH ........................................................................11 2.2.8 USDCNY 25Delta %.........................11 2.3.1 ..............................................11 2.3.2 ........................................................................11 2.3.3 .............................................12 2.3.4 .......................................................................12 3.3.1 2024.1.1-1.5 ....................................16 1 .................................17 2 % ..................................................................18 3...................................................19 4Shibor%19 5SOFR %.............................................................................19 6%.................................................................................20 7....................................................................................20 11 A 7.10 1. ( BIS 7.0953 7.1010 7.0827 7.0827 -0.178% USDCNY7.1393 7.1445 7.0920 7.0920 -0.663% USDCNH7.1538 7.1520 7.0958 7.0958 -0.811% 142.6122 142.4908 140.9400 140.9400 -1.173% 1.1007 1.1112 1.1032 1.1059 0.473% 1.2718 1.2795 1.2696 1.2739 0.159% 101.7073 101.7027 100.9438 101.3783 -0.323% CFETS97.88 —— —— 97.42 -0.370% 102.81 —— —— 102.42 -0.379% 93.39 —— —— 93.23 -0.171% 1.1 202312251229 122916:30 CFETSBISSDR 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 2% 1.1.120231225-29 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.40 7.35 109.00 7.30 107.00 7.25 105.00 7.20 7.15 103.00 7.10 101.00 7.05 2023-09-012023-10-012023-11-012023-12-01 99.00 : iFinD 1.2 1.2.1 FOMC 12 1.2.12023 20232023 2023.92023.12 2023 iFinD 2024 1 2 USDCNH 根据对2015-2022年七年来，人民币即期汇率在历年年末最后一周及第二年年初第一周表现来看，人民币汇率在开年首周基本能延续前一年最后一周的升值