如何从 2023 年 Q3 货币政策执行报告理解央行对汇率的用心?

I 11 29 2023 2023 Q3 20111290 2023 1121 1121 1127 2023 Z0017101 1.2023................................................................................1 1.1.....................................................1 1.2........................................................3 1.2.1..........................................3 1.2.2?.............................................................7 2.2023Q38 2.1“+3”................8 2.2....................9 1.1.1: ........................................................................1 1.1.2: ....................................................................1 4 1.1.3: ..............................................................................................................................2 1.1.4:2023 7 ....3 1.2.1:2015 USDCNH 10 .................4 1.2.1: 10 .........................4 1.2.2: USDCNH USDJPY 90% .5 1.2.3: 2022 ...................................................5 1.2.2:2015 USDCNH ...............................6 1.2.4: 2022 ...................................................6 1.2.5: ........................7 2.2.1:2023 ......................8 2.2.2:2023 ......................9 2.2.1: ...........................................................................9 1.2023 2023 ch 1.1 1. 4 820231127 7.1159 7.14857.15452.17%2.84%2.61% CFETSBISSDR 98.65103.3993.890.02%0.27% 2.28% 1.1.1: 1.1.2: iFinD iFinD 1.1.3: 4 7.4000 7.3000 7.2000 7.1000 7.0000 6.9000 6.8000 6.7000 6.6000 108.00 107.00 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 101.00 100.00 99.00 ::USDCNY :USDCNH iFinD 2. 7 2015 1121 811 90% 7.40000.1000 7.20000.0500 7.00000.0000 6.8000-0.0500 6.6000-0.1000 6.4000-0.1500 - : 6.2000-0.2000 :USDCNY iFinD 1.2 1.2.1 1 2022 95.16% 2023 11 27 89.79% 2022 94.67% 2021 -35.18% 2020 45.34% 2019 -88.37% 2018 68.48% 2017 75.40% 2016 55.03% 2015 67.16% 1.2.1: iFinD 10 2.507.4000 2.00 1.50 1.00 7.3000 7.2000 7.1000 7.0000 6.9000 0.50 6.8000 6.7000 0.006.6000 - % 10 10 10 :USDCNH iFinD 1 2023Q3I20231129 1.2.2: USDCNHUSDJPY 90% 155.00007.6000 145.0000 135.0000 7.4000 7.2000 7.0000 125.00006.8000 115.0000 105.0000 6.6000 6.4000 6.2000 95.00006.0000 :USDJPY:USDCNH iFinD 1.2.3: 2022 6.0000 5.0000 4.0000 3.0000 2.0000 1.0000 : % iFinD 2022 2023 0.0000 1.2.2:2015 USDCNH 2023 11 27 48.54% 2022 90.12% 2021 -39.83% 2020 85.49% 2019 69.04% 2018 88.74% 2017 90.74% 2016 78.37% 2015 33.40% 2 iFinD 2022 2023 1.2.4: 2022 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 -50.00 -100.00 7.4000 7.2000 7.0000 6.8000 6.6000 6.4000 -150.006.2000 :- :USDCNH iFinD ? 8 7.30 200 1121 1.2.2 1.2.5: 11 21 + + 7.400.05 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 0.00 (0.05) (0.10) (0.15) 5 6.60(0.20) USDCNY16:30 BloombergRefinitiv 1121 1121 1127 2023 2.2023Q3 2.1+3 1127 2023 4 10.30 11.8 2.2.1:2023 Q3Q2Q1 +3 2.2.2:2023 Q3Q2Q1 2.2 10 2023 2.2.1: 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 94.00 92.00 90.00 105.00 104.50 104.00 103.50 103.00 102.50 102.00 101.50 101.00 100.50 100.00 CFETSSDR BIS iFinD 2023Q3I20231129 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093