公司首次覆盖报告：省内升级结构优化，品牌引领布局全国

省内升级结构优化，品牌引领发力全国 [Table_CoverStock] —金徽酒(603919)公司首次覆盖报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2023年11月24日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 马铮 食品饮料首席分析师 满静雅 食品饮料分析师 S1500520110001 S1500523080004 13392190215 15026413613 mazheng@cindasc.com manjingya@cindasc.com [Table_CoverReportList] 相关研究 1.百元以上发力明显，省外市场开拓加速 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司首次覆盖报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 金徽酒(603919) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 [Table_Chart] 资料来源：聚源，信达证券研发中心 [Table_BaseData] 公司主要数据 收盘价（元） 26.71 52周内股价波动区间(元) 30.11-22.10 最近一月涨跌幅(％) 7.23 总股本(亿股) 5.07 流通A股比例(％) 100.00 总市值(亿元) 135.49 资料来源：聚源，信达证券研发中心 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区闹市口大街9号院1号楼 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 省内升级结构优化，品牌引领布局全国 [Table_ReportDate] 2023年11月24日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 西北市场渠道壁垒较深厚，公司与名酒错位竞争，市占率仍有提升空间。1）西北地区受益于新一轮西部大开发、能源产业发展等，白酒市场不断扩容，我们预估约350亿市场规模。受制于地理位置等影响因素，渠道建设成本较高，市场易守难攻。2）白酒消费主流价位带向百元以上逐步升级，随着政商务消费场景恢复，消费升级仍有空间，且与全国性名酒形成错位竞争。3）甘肃省约80亿规模，形成一超多强竞争格局，公司省内市占率约24%，相比西北酒其他龙头在当地约50%占有率，仍有提升空间。 发展战略务实高效，管理层年轻、管理效率持续提升。1）复盘历史，公司自2006年破产后，实控人由国营企业变更为甘肃亚特集团，通过转变管理理念、完善激励机制进行市场化改革，2012年销售额突破10亿，并于2016年成功上市，坚持采取渠道深耕、稳扎稳打的方式，实现聚焦资源、精准营销，而非盲目扩张。2）随着根据地市场逐步成熟，公司在2018年提出“二次创业”，全面开发宁夏、陕西市场，局部进入新疆市场，布局内蒙古和青海市场。2020年开始，复星参股后，全面开启全国化进程。3）公司管理层较为年轻，内部改革不断激发组织活力，管理效率提升。 品牌引领发力全国，省内升级产品结构不断优化。1）公司坚持布局全国、深耕西北、重点突破的战略。省内市场采取全价位、全渠道、全覆盖的做法，渠道经营扁平化，在大众消费、高端引领方面实现规模突破。西北地区树立并巩固样板市场，以能量金徽系列开拓市场，并逐步导入次高端、高端产品。2）推行“影响力客户引领+深度运营”双轮驱动营销转型，在西北6省30城、华东4大枢纽站点19座重点城市打造纵贯陆空的立体广告矩阵助力品牌全国化。23年前三季度高档酒营收同增33%，占比提升至69%，产品结构优化。 盈利预测及投资建议: 西北市场渠道建设成本较高，整体易守难攻。公司受益于省内消费升级，与全国性名酒形成错位竞争，市占率提升空间大，且经营战略务实，组织管理效率逐步提升，有望实现多点开花。我们预测公司2023-2025年EPS为0.75/0.97/1.25元、增速35/30/29%。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 股价催化剂：渠道推广提速 风险因素：省内产品升级不及预期、省外扩张不及预期、食品安全风险 [Table_Profit] 重要财务指标 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业总收入(百万元) 1,788 2,012 2,513 3,033 3,625 增长率YoY % 3.3% 12.5% 24.9% 20.7% 19.5% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) 325 280 379 492 636 增长率YoY% -2.0% -13.7% 35.2% 29.8% 29.3% 毛利率% 63.7% 62.8% 64.2% 65.3% 65.8% 净资产收益率ROE% 10.9% 8.9% 11.2% 12.7% 14.1% EPS(摊薄)(元) 0.64 0.55 0.75 0.97 1.25 市盈率P/E(倍) 41.71 48.35 35.77 27.56 21.31 市净率P/B(倍) 4.54 4.30 4.01 3.50 3.01 [Table_ReportClosing] 资料来源：万得，信达证券研发中心预测;股价为2023年11月23日收盘价 -20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%22/1123/0323/0723/11金徽酒沪深300 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 目 录 1. 历史沿革：二次创业，省外扩张加速 ................................................................................................................ 5 2. 西北市场：容量广阔，仍有升级空间 ................................................................................................................ 6 3. 营销战略：省外扩张加速，产品结构优化 ........................................................................................................ 8 3.1.区域：布局全国、深耕西北 ·························································································· 8 3.2.产品：中高档占比提升，产品结构优化 ·········································································· 10 3.3.渠道：“客户引领+深度运营”双轮驱动 ········································································ 13 4. 同业对比：盈利能力较优，市占率有望提升 .................................................................................................. 13 5. 盈利预测························································································································ 15 6. 风险因素························································································································ 16 表 目 录 表1：甘肃省主流白酒企业 ···································································································· 8 表2：各价位段省内主要竞争品牌 ·························································································· 10 表3：金徽酒产品矩阵 ········································································································· 11 表4：同业分析 ·················································································································· 14 表5：2023-2025年营业收入预测 ···························································································· 16 表6：可比公司盈利预测与估值 ····························································································· 16 图 目 录 图 1 金徽酒发展历程············································································································· 6 图2 2019年陕西白酒市场竞争格局 ························································································· 7 图3 陕西白酒产地市场分布···································································································· 7 图4 2020年甘肃白酒市场竞争格局 ························································································· 8 图5 甘肃白酒市场分布 ········································································································· 8 图 6 2016-2023年业务分区域营收占比（%） ············································································ 10 图 7 2016-2023年白酒分档次营收占比（%） ············································································ 12 图 8 2016-2023年白酒分档次营收及增速 ································································