公司首次覆盖报告：省内升级结构优化，品牌引领布局全国

省内升级结构优化，品牌引领发力全国 —金徽酒(603919)公司首次覆盖报告 2023年11月24日 马铮食品饮料首席分析师S150052011000113392190215 mazheng@cindasc.com 满静雅食品饮料分析师S150052308000415026413613 manjingya@cindasc.com 相关研究 1.百元以上发力明显，省外市场开拓加速 证券研究报告公司研究 公司首次覆盖报告 金徽酒(603919)投资评级买入上次评级 金徽酒沪深300 40%30%20%10% 0% -10%-20% 22/1123/0323/0723/11 资料来源：聚源，信达证券研发中心公司主要数据收盘价（元）26.7152周内股价波动区间30.11-22.10(元)最近一月涨跌幅(％)7.23总股本(亿股)5.07流通A股比例(％)100.00总市值(亿元)135.49 资料来源：聚源，信达证券研发中心 信达证券股份有限公司CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD北京市西城区闹市口大街9号院1号楼邮编：100031 省内升级结构优化，品牌引领布局全国 2023年11月24日 本期内容提要: ⯁西北市场渠道壁垒较深厚，公司与名酒错位竞争，市占率仍有提升空间。1）西北地区受益于新一轮西部大开发、能源产业发展等，白酒市场不断扩容，我们预估约350亿市场规模。受制于地理位置等影响因素，渠道建设成本较高，市场易守难攻。2）白酒消费主流价位带向百元以上逐步升级，随着政商务消费场景恢复，消费升级仍有空间，且与全国性名酒形成 错位竞争。3）甘肃省约80亿规模，形成一超多强竞争格局，公司省内市 占率约24%，相比西北酒其他龙头在当地约50%占有率，仍有提升空间。 ⯁发展战略务实高效，管理层年轻、管理效率持续提升。1）复盘历史，公司自2006年破产后，实控人由国营企业变更为甘肃亚特集团，通过转变管理理念、完善激励机制进行市场化改革，2012年销售额突破10亿，并于2016年成功上市，坚持采取渠道深耕、稳扎稳打的方式，实现聚焦资源、 精准营销，而非盲目扩张。2）随着根据地市场逐步成熟，公司在2018年提出“二次创业”，全面开发宁夏、陕西市场，局部进入新疆市场，布局内蒙古和青海市场。2020年开始，复星参股后，全面开启全国化进程。3）公司管理层较为年轻，内部改革不断激发组织活力，管理效率提升。 ⯁品牌引领发力全国，省内升级产品结构不断优化。1）公司坚持布局全国、深耕西北、重点突破的战略。省内市场采取全价位、全渠道、全覆盖的做法，渠道经营扁平化，在大众消费、高端引领方面实现规模突破。西北地区树立并巩固样板市场，以能量金徽系列开拓市场，并逐步导入次高端、高端产品。2）推行“影响力客户引领+深度运营”双轮驱动营销转型，在西北6省30城、华东4大枢纽站点19座重点城市打造纵贯陆空的立体广 告矩阵助力品牌全国化。23年前三季度高档酒营收同增33%，占比提升至 69%，产品结构优化。 ⯁盈利预测及投资建议:西北市场渠道建设成本较高，整体易守难攻。公司受益于省内消费升级，与全国性名酒形成错位竞争，市占率提升空间大，且经营战略务实，组织管理效率逐步提升，有望实现多点开花。我们预测公司2023-2025年EPS为0.75/0.97/1.25元、增速35/30/29%。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 ⯁股价催化剂：渠道推广提速 ⯁风险因素：省内产品升级不及预期、省外扩张不及预期、食品安全风险 重要财务指标营业总收入(百万元) 2021A1,788 2022A2,012 2023E2,513 2024E3,033 2025E3,625 增长率YoY% 3.3% 12.5% 24.9% 20.7% 19.5% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) 325 280 379 492 636 增长率YoY% -2.0% -13.7% 35.2% 29.8% 29.3% 毛利率% 63.7% 62.8% 64.2% 65.3% 65.8% 净资产收益率ROE% 10.9% 8.9% 11.2% 12.7% 14.1% EPS(摊薄)(元) 0.64 0.55 0.75 0.97 1.25 市盈率P/E(倍) 41.71 48.35 35.77 27.56 21.31 市净率P/B(倍) 4.54 4.30 4.01 3.50 3.01 资料来源：万得，信达证券研发中心预测;股价为2023年11月23日收盘价 目录 1.历史沿革：二次创业，省外扩张加速5 2.西北市场：容量广阔，仍有升级空间6 3.营销战略：省外扩张加速，产品结构优化8 3.1.区域：布局全国、深耕西北································ ································ ·························· 8 3.2.产品：中高档占比提升，产品结构优化································ ································ ·········· 10 3.3.渠道：“客户引领+深度运营”双轮驱动································ ································ ········ 13 4.同业对比：盈利能力较优，市占率有望提升13 5.盈利预测································ ································ ································ ························ 15 6.风险因素································ ································ ································ ························ 16 表目录 表1：甘肃省主流白酒企业8 表2：各价位段省内主要竞争品牌··························································································10 表3：金徽酒产品矩阵11 表4：同业分析··················································································································14 表5：2023-2025年营业收入预测····························································································16 表6：可比公司盈利预测与估值·····························································································16 图目录 图1金徽酒发展历程·············································································································6 图22019年陕西白酒市场竞争格局·························································································7 图3陕西白酒产地市场分布7 图42020年甘肃白酒市场竞争格局·························································································8 图5甘肃白酒市场分布8 图62016-2023年业务分区域营收占比（%）············································································10 图72016-2023年白酒分档次营收占比（%）············································································12 图82016-2023年白酒分档次营收及增速·················································································12 图9金徽酒吨价及增速12 图10金徽酒分档次吨价及增速·····························································································12 图112016-2022年西北酒企毛利率(单位：%)···········································································15 图122016-2022年西北酒企净利率(单位：%)···········································································15 图132016-2022年西北酒企管理费用率(%)··············································································15 图142016-2022年西北酒企销售费用率(%)··············································································15 投资逻辑 市场认为，西北市场受制于经济发展水平、地理位置等因素，市场容量有限且分布较为分散，不作为白酒消费主要竞争市场。公司近年来发展较为平稳，加之疫情影响，省内市占率提升和省外扩张不及预期。 我们认为，白酒行业竞争日趋激烈，而西北市场近年来随着经济发展水平的提高，白酒市场容量逐步扩张且竞争相对温和，渠道建设成本较高，整体易守难攻。龙头地产酒受益于省内消费升级，与全国性名酒形成错位竞争，市占率提升空间大。金徽酒经营战略务实，组织管理效率逐步提升，省内“全区域布局”+省外“不对称营销”，有望实现多点开花。 我们估测西北地区白酒市场350亿左右，渠道壁垒较为深厚、与全国性名酒错位竞争。1）西北地区由于经济基础较为薄弱、人口密度相对较低，因此白酒市场容量相对东、南部地区较低，历年来不作为白酒竞争的重点市场。2）由于地理位置的影响、市场较为分散，西北市场在区位交通、组织管理等层面的渠道建设成本较高，本土酒企具备天然优势，整体易守难攻。3）我们认为西北市场目前主流价位带为100-150元左右，贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖等全国性知名白酒品牌在高端白酒市场占据一定市场份额，与本土酒企形成错位竞争。 甘肃省约80亿市场容量，大众酒消费升级叠加政商务场景发力，公司市占率提升仍有空间。1）近年来，随着第二次西部大开发战略的落实、能源结构转型等产业发展，西北地区经济发展水平逐步提高，西北市场逐渐提升到了更为重要的地位。2）甘肃地处亚欧大陆桥的核心通道，地形狭长，为交通要塞，文旅、能源资源丰富，省内白酒市场约80亿规模，形成“一超多强”的竞争格局。3）我们认为当前甘肃省内白酒主流价位带在向百元以上升级的过程中，金徽酒作为区域龙头，受益于省内消费升级；另一方