聚烯烃周报：宏观经济转暖，聚烯烃小幅反弹

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 建议轻仓逢低做多。中央财政四季度增发一万亿国债，将拉动塑料下游消费需求，本周聚烯烃反弹，基差小幅走弱。国际油价偏弱震荡，聚烯烃油头利润小幅修复，但成本端支撑仍存。生产装置集中检修，总体开工率偏低，供应端压力得到缓解，供应端减少下石化库存持续去库。PE下游农膜厂开工率大幅提升，而其他下游需求未有明显变化，总体复苏情况仍一般。LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口依然关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存66.5万吨，较上周去库7万吨，上游供应减弱，石化库存持续去库。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 基差方面，LL华东基差+20，PP华东基差+0，聚烯烃基差走弱。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油偏弱震荡，聚烯烃油头利润小幅修复，PDH制PP利润持续亏损。PE开工率88.4%（-2.9%），PP开工率88.5%（-0.1%），生产利润下行，聚烯烃装置集中检修，PE开工负荷再度下降，PP降幅企稳。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口打开，维持微利，PP进口窗口关闭。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜厂开工率大幅提升5%，而其他下游开工率未有明显变化，“金九银十”传统开工旺季即将结束，总体复苏情况仍一般，下游维持刚需采购。 ■策略 建议轻仓逢低做多，宏观经济转暖预期，聚烯烃估值偏低。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求复苏。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................