2023 年全球能源回顾

WorldEnergyReview 2023 WorldEnergyReview 2023 In2022theenergymarket,whichwasgraduallyrecoveringfromCovidpandemic,experiencedanewdiscontinuityduetotheRussianinvasionofUkraine. Thewarhadmajorramificationsontheglobaleconomy,thedrasticchangeinthemonetarypoliciesofCentralBanks,the needtoreconsiderenergyflowswiththeexclusionofRussia’soilandgasvolumes. IntheWorldEnergyReview(WER),nowatits22ndedition,theevolutionofthemainenergyvariablesisdepicted:oil,gas,newrenewablesandcriticalminerals.Specifically,in2022,thefollowinghighlightsemerge: •WorldEnergyMix-Worldprimaryenergyconsumptiongrowsataratecloseto1%vs.2021,confirmingthealmostun-brokentrendofrecentdecades.Intermsofcomposition,fossilfuelscontinuetocoverabout80%ofenergydemand,anamountthathasbeenessentiallystablefor30years.Theshareofrenewables(solarandwind)intheenergymixgrows,buttheirweightstillremainslimited,atjust3%. •Oil-Pricesup43%y/y(Brentat101.2$/b),amidcontinuingdemandgrowth(+2.2Mb/d)to100Mb/d,almostfullyrecoveringfromthepandemic-relatedloss(-0.7%vs2019)withanequalcontributionbetweenOECD(+1.1Mb/d)andnon-OECD(+1.1Mb/d).Worldoilproductionincreasesby4.3Mb/d,withgrowthconcentratedinGulfOPECcountriesduetotheunwindingof2020cuts.Intermsofcrudequality,ahaltinthebarrellighteningprocessisconfirmed,withaslightdecreaseintheshareofLightcrudesinfavorofMediumandHeavycrudes.Netrefiningcapacityreturnstogrowin2022withtheentryofnewprojectsintheMiddleEastandChinaamountingtojustunder2Mb/d. •Gas-Pricesreachsignificantlyhighlevelsdirectlyaffectingdownstreamcommodities,foremostamongthemelectricity,withmajorimpactsonconsumers,governments,productionsystems,andtheentireglobaleconomy.Thermalyear2021/22beginswithsignificantlyreducedinventoriesandgasprices7timeshigherthanonOctober1,2020.EuropecompensatestheshortfallinpipelineimportsfromRussiamainlybyattractingadditionalLNGvolumes,payshigherprices,andlosesitstraditionalroleasaglobalbalancerbybecomingthepremiummarketcapableofgeneratingpressureonallmajorgaspriceindices.Globalgasdemandoverallin2022fallsbymorethan1%,afterapost-pandemicreboundin2021(˜+5%),withdivergentdynamicsonaglobalscale:sharpbrakinginEurope,Russia,andAsia,onlypartiallyoffsetbygrowthintheUSandMiddleEast. •Renewables-Althoughinstallationshavebeengrowingexponentiallyinrecentyears,theshareofsolarandwindintheelectricitygenerationmixhasrisentojustabove10%,comparedwithmorethan60%generatedbyfossilfuels(including36%ofthetotalgeneratedbycoal). •Criticalminerals(cobalt,copper,lithium,nickel,rareearthsandsilicon)-Theyplayakeyroleinsomekeytransi-tion-relatedtechnologies:batteries(cobalt,lithiumandnickel),wind(rareearths)andsolar(silicon).Mostofthemshowsignificantgrowthintermsofproduction,alsoreflectingincreaseddemand.Nickelandlithiummarkthelargestincrease(over20%). Finally,itisworthmentioninghowthenewenergysetuphasalsoaffectedCO2emissionsfromfuelcombustion,whichspikedagain(+1%,afterthepostcovidrecoveryrecordedin2021),resultingfromtheincreaseincoalconsumption. ClaudioDescalzi ChiefExecutiveOfficerandGeneralManager 4 EniWorldEnergyReview2023 Introduction 8LISTOFCOUNTRIES 9NOTESANDMETHODS 12WORLDENERGYMIX 12WorldEnergyMix2022 12WorldPowerCapacityMix2022 13WorldPowerGenerationMix2022 Oil-SupplyandDemand 16RESERVES 16AreasandAggregates 18TheWorldTop10ReservesHolders 19Countries 23PRODUCTION 23AreasandAggregates 25TheWorldTop10Producers 26Countries 29TheWorldTop10NaturalGasLiquidsProducers 30RESERVES/PRODUCTIONRATIO 30AreasandAggregates 31TheWorldTop10ProducersRankedbyReserves/ProductionRatio 32Countries 35CONSUMPTION 35AreasandAggregates 37TheWorldTop10Consumers 38Countries 43PERCAPITACONSUMPTION 43AreasandAggregates 44TheWorldTop10ConsumersRankedbyPerCapitaConsumptionRatio 45Countries 50PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION RATIO 50AreasandAggregates 51TheWorldTop10ProducersRankedbyProduction/ConsumptionRatio 52Countries Oil-TradeandPrices 58REGIONALCRUDEBALANCES 58CrudeSurplusDeficitbyArea 59EXPORTS 59TheWorldTop10Exporters 60Countries 64IMPORTS 64TheWorldTop10Importers 65Countries 70CRUDEFUTUREPRICESANDOPENINTERESTS Oil-ProductionQuality 74WORLD 74CrudeProductionbyQuality 74CrudeProductionbyGravity 74CrudeProductionbySulphurContent 75QualityandProductionVolume ofMainCrudes 76CrudeProductionbyQuality-Chart 77EUROPE 77CrudeProductionbyQuality 77QualityandProductionVolume ofMainCrudes 78CrudeProductionbyQuality-Chart 79Countries 80RUSSIAANDCENTRALASIA 80CrudeProductionbyQuality 81QualityandProductionVolume ofMainCrudes 82CrudeProductionbyQuality-Chart 83Countries 84MIDDLEEAST 84CrudeProductionbyQuality 85QualityandProductionVolume ofMainCrudes 86CrudeProductionbyQuality-Chart 87Countries 89AFRICA 89CrudeProductionbyQuality 90QualityandProductionVolume ofMainCrudes 91CrudeProductionbyQuality-Chart 92Countries 95ASIA-PACIFIC 95CrudeProductionbyQuality 96QualityandProductionVolume ofMainCrudes 97CrudeProductionbyQuality-Chart 98Countries 100AMERICAS 100CrudeProductionbyQuality 101QualityandProductionVolume ofMainCrudes 102CrudeProductionbyQuality-Chart 103Countries Oil-RefiningIndustry 108REFININGCAPACITY