2023 年天然气过剩：全球天然气发电扩张继续阻碍能源转型

2023 GasGlut GLOBALGASPOWEREXPANSION CONTINUESTOTHWARTENERGYTRANSITION GlobalEnergyMonitor ABOUTGLOBALENERGYMONITOR GlobalEnergyMonitor(GEM)developsandsharesinformationinsupportoftheworldwidemovementforcleanenergy.Bystudyingtheevolvinginternationalenergylandscapeandcreatingdatabases,reports,andinteractivetoolsthatenhanceunderstanding,GEMseekstobuildanopenguidetotheworld’senergysys-tem.Followusatwww.globalenergymonitor.organdonTwitter@GlobalEnergyMon. ABOUTTHEGLOBALOILANDGASPLANTTRACKER(GOGPT) TheGlobalOilandGasPlantTracker(GOGPT)isanonlinedatabasethatidentifiesandmapseveryknownoil-and gas-firedgeneratingunitandeverynewunitproposedsinceJanuary1,2020(20MWandlargerintheEuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom,50MWorlargerelsewhere).DevelopedbyGlobalEnergyMonitor,thetrackerusesfootnotedwikipagestodocumenteachplantandisupdatedbiannually.Forfurtherdetailsseethetrackerlandingpageandmethodologyoverview. ABOUTTHECOVER ThecoverimageisamapcreatedbyScottZimmermanofoperatingglobaloil-andgas-firedpowerplants. AUTHORS JennyMartos(ProjectManagerGOGPT),WardaAjaz(ProjectManagerAsiaGasTracker),GregorClark(ProjectManagerPortalEnergéticoparaAméricaLatina),NorahElmagraby(researcher),HarveyHassan(researcher),ChristineJuta(ProjectManagerAfricaGasTracker),andNataliaSidorovskaya-Fretz(researcher). EDITING,PRODUCTION,ANDOTHERCONTRIBUTIONS DesignandpagelayoutbyDavidVanNess.MapsandfigurescreatedbyScottZimmermanandNassosStylianou.EditingcontributionswereprovidedbyJulieJoly,DavidHoffman,andStefaniCox. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Theauthorswouldliketothankalloftheresearcherswhocontributedtothedevelopmentofthisdatasettoenablethisreportandanalysis—GregorClark,AmaliaLlano,ChristineJuta,NorahElmagraby,NagwaAbdallah,NataliaSidorovska-ya-Fretz,ZhanaiymKozybay,ChengChengWu,XiaojunPeng,HarveyHassan,WillLomer,andWardaAjaz. PERMISSIONS/COPYRIGHT Copyright©GlobalEnergyMonitor.DistributedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicense. FURTHERRESOURCES Foradditionaldataonproposedandexistingoilandgasplants,seeSummaryTablesontheGEMwebsite.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGOGPT,visittheDownloadDatapage. GasGlut2023 GLOBALGASPOWEREXPANSIONCONTINUESTO THWARTENERGYTRANSITION JennyMartos,WardaAjaz,GregorClark,NorahElmagraby,HarveyHassan,ChristineJuta,andNataliaSidorovskaya-Fretz GlobalEnergyMonitor INTRODUCTION Oilandgashavehadabigyear.Oil-andgas-fired1powerplantsindevelopment—projectsthathavebeenannouncedorareinthepre-construction2andcon-structionphases—increased13%inthelastyearto783gigawatts(GW),mainlydrivenbyincreasesincapacityofprojectsinthepre-constructionandconstructionphases.(Figure1) Ifbuilt,theseprojectswouldgrowtheglobaloilandgasfleetbyathirdatanestimatedcostofUS$611billionincapitalexpenditure,creatingalifetime emissionspotentialequivalenttomorethansixandhalfyearsoftheUnitedStates’emissions. Drivenbyconcernsoverenergysecurityandpromisesofadurabletransitionfueltodecarbonizeeconomies,countriesaroundtheworldaredevelopingoilandgas,mostnotablyinAsiaandtheUnitedStates.Russia’swarinUkrainehaschangedthecalculusforEurope intermsofitsenergysupplychoices,whileinplaceswithextensiverenewablespotentialandcompara-tivelysmallerfossilfuelssectorslikeAfricaandLatin Figure1.Changesinoilandgascapacityindevelopment,mid-2022tomid-2023. Globaloil&gaspowerpantcapacityindevelopmentingigawatts(GW),mid-2022tomid-2023 Announced 2023 2022 Pre-construction Construction 0GW100GW200GW300GW Source:GlobalOilandGasPlantTracker,GlobalEnergyMonitor 1.GEMhistoricallyhastrackedgasanddualfuel(ie:gas/oil,gas/coal,gas/bioenergy)powerplantsintheGlobalGasPlantTracker(GGPT).IntheexpandedandrenamedGlobalOilandGasPlantTracker(GOGPT),GEMisnowincludingoil,dualfuel(withgasoroil),andgasfiredpowerplants. 2.Pre-constructionprojectsincludethosethatareactivelymovingforwardinseekinggovernmentalapprovals,landrights,orfinancing. AmericaandtheCaribbean,plansforoilandgasplantsaregainingafoothold. Butithasalsobeenabigyearforextremeweatherevents.Duringthesecriticalmomentswhenenergyhasbeenneededthemost,fossilfuelgenerationhasattimesfailed.FromfatalpoweroutagesintheU.S.duringthewinterArcticblaststorisingtemperaturesacrosstheMiddleEastbucklinggasturbines,variableweatherpatternsbroughtonbyachangingclimatehaveupendednotionsoffossilfuel’sreliability. Atthesametime,gas’reputationasacleanertransi-tionfuelcontinuestounravel,asitssignificantcon-tributiontoclimatechangeduetomethaneleakagesatextractionandtransportationbecomesbetterunderstood. Bysomeestimates,methaneleakageaslowas0.2%putsgas’climateimpactonparwithcoal,andthe actualleakageratesrangefrom3.7%to9%orhigher.It’snosurprisethenthat150countries,representingnearlyhalfofglobalmethaneemissions,havesignedtheGlobalMethanePledge,endorsingitsgoalofreducingmethaneemissions30%by2030. Againstthisbackdrop,thecallfromtheinternationalscientificcommunitytostopanynewconstructiononfossilfuelinfrastructureinordertolimitplanetarywarmingto1.5°Cbecomesmoreurgent. Expandingoilandgascapacityrepresentsacostlystrandedassetriskwhilealsodivertingresourcesawayfromtheenergytransition,whichbysomeestimate