隧道中的微光

201581120232023 7.58 6.90-7.455%GDP 7.30 20111290 Z0017101 1.2023Q4....................................................................1 1.1.....................................................................................11.2.............................................................................................1 2.2023Q3...........................................................................2 2.1...........................................................................................................22.2+.....................5 3.2023Q4...........................................................................9 3.1....................93.2.....93.2.1.............................103.2.2..............223.3.............................243.3.1...............................................243.3.2...........................................333.3.3.............................................................363.3.4.............................................................37 2.1.1:............................22.1.2:2015............................................32.1.3:2015..............................42.1.4:2015..............................42.2.1:2023Q3............................................62.2.2:2023Q3CFETS BISSDR...................62.2.3:2023Q3105...........................................72.2.4:2023Q37.........................72.2.5:2023Q3........................72.2.6:20236................................................83.2.1:10Y....................................................................93.2.2:......................................................................................93.2.3:......................................................................................93.2.4:......................................................................................93.2.5:9FOMC.................................................................103.2.6:12.....113.2.7:GDPNow2023Q3GDP5.8%...............................................................................................................................113.2.8:..............................................................113.2.9:5.25-5.50%.......................................123.2.10:2023.......123.2.11:2023PMI.............................123.2.12:.............13 3.2.13:2023....133.2.14:%.....................................................143.2.15:84.29%....................153.2.16:8.........153.2.17:18........................................153.2.1:NBER.....................................................................153.2.18:123...163.2.19:6...........................173.2.20:...........................183.2.21:GDPplus..............................................................193.2.22:9............................................................203.2.23:....................213.2.24:IMF%........................................................................223.2.25:69...........................................................................233.3.1:1-8...............................................................................................................................253.3.2:OECD......263.3.3:1993................................................................273.3.4:OCED....................................273.3.5:%..................................................................283.3.6:PMI...........................................283.3.7:..............................................................293.3.8:..............................................................293.3.9:%...............................................................................................................................303.3.10:.....................................................30 3.3.11:2023....313.3.12:.....................................................313.3.13:%.............313.3.14:..........................................323.3.15:BDI......................................323.3.16:................343.3.17:....................343.3.18:PMI............353.3.19:PMI............353.3.20:%...........................................................................363.3.21:2015USDCNH%.....................373.3.22:2015USDCNY%.....................37 1.2023Q4 1.1 ++67.30 20236.90-7.4575%GDP 1 1.2 12 1 2.2023Q3 2.1 1. 20239 267.17277.3019 7.31122.97%5.04%4.86%0.55%0.72%0.75% 2. 7.3 20151201931111 =-0.3802*+6.9586=-0.3413*+6.9351=-0.3453*+6.9458 926-184-1667.59067.5024 7.51987.17275.83%7.30192.75%7.31122.77%5%2.2 7.3/CFETS/10% CFETS925 CFETS99.3CFETS99.830.53%CFETS 2.2+ 1. 20239 2284.63%84.05%CFETSBISSDR98.83103.36 93.692.16%2.36%1.65% 20239 2684.83%84.07%CFETSBISSDR98.83103.36 93.692.16%2.36%1.65% 77633.920.923CPICPI4%5.3%3%4.9%3.1%5%100 7105 2. 2.1 7.307.30 3.2023Q4 3.1 ++2.22023 3.2 25 Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg 9FOMC2023GDP61.0%2.1%2024GDP61.1%1.5%9202364.1%3.8%4.5%4.1%2023PCE3.2%3.3%PCE3.9%3.7% 9 3.2.1 2023Q4 1) 1. 2023 GDPNow2023GDP5.8%5.0%12 Atlanta Fe