隧道中的微光

I 9 20232023 20111290 2015 811 2023 2023 7.58 6.90-7.45 5% GDP 7.30 Z0017101 1.2023Q41 1.1.....................................................................................1 1.2.............................................................................................1 ...........................................................................2 2.2023Q3 2.1 ...........................................................................................................2 2.2+.....................5 3.2023Q49 3.1....................9 3.2.....9 3.2.1.............................10 3.2.2..............22 3.3.............................24 3.3.1...............................................24 3.3.2...........................................33 3.3.3.............................................................36 3.3.4.............................................................37 2.1.1: ............................2 2.1.2:2015 ............................................3 2.1.3:2015 ..............................4 2.1.4:2015 ..............................4 2.2.1:2023Q3 ............................................6 2.2.2:2023Q3CFETS BIS SDR ...................6 2.2.3:2023Q3 105 ...........................................7 2.2.4:2023Q3 7 .........................7 2.2.5: 2023Q3 ........................7 2.2.6:2023 6 ................................................8 3.2.1: 10Y ....................................................................9 3.2.2: ......................................................................................9 3.2.3: ......................................................................................9 3.2.4: ......................................................................................9 3.2.5:9 FOMC .................................................................10 3.2.6: 12 .....11 3.2.7: GDPNow 2023Q3 GDP 5.8% ...............................................................................................................................11 3.2.8: ..............................................................11 3.2.9: 5.25-5.50%.......................................12 3.2.10:2023.......12 3.2.11:2023PMI12 3.2.12: .............13 3.2.14: % .....................................................14 3.2.15: 8 4.29% ....................15 3.2.16: 8 .........15 3.2.17: 18 ........................................15 3.2.1:NBER .....................................................................15 3.2.18: 12 3...16 3.2.19: 6 ...........................17 3.2.20: ...........................18 3.2.21:GDPplus19 3.2.22: 9............................................................20 3.2.23: ....................21 3.2.24:IMF%22 3.2.25:69...........................................................................23 3.3.1: 1-8 ...............................................................................................................................25 3.3.2:OECD26 3.3.3:1993................................................................27 3.3.4:OCED27 3.3.5: %..................................................................28 3.3.6: PMI ...........................................28 3.3.7: ..............................................................29 3.3.8: ..............................................................29 3.3.9: % ...............................................................................................................................30 3.3.10: .....................................................30 3.3.12: .....................................................31 3.3.13: % .............31 3.3.14: ..........................................32 3.3.15: BDI ......................................32 3.3.16: ................34 3.3.17: ....................34 3.3.18: PMI ............35 3.3.19: PMI ............35 3.3.20: % ...........................................................................36 3.3.21:2015 USDCNH %.....................37 3.3.22:2015 USDCNY %.....................37 1.2023Q4 + + 6 7.30 1.1 1 2023 6.90- 7.45 7 5% GDP 1.2 1 2 1 2.2023Q3 2.1 1. 2023926 7.17277.30197.31122.97% 5.04%4.86% 0.55%0.72%0.75% 2.1.1: 7.4500 7.3500 7.2500 7.1500 7.0500 6.9500 6.8500 6.7500 : : 6.6500 : iFinD 2. 7.3 20151 1 1 20193 1 1 =-0.3802* +6.9586 =-0.3413* +6.9351 =-0.3453* +6.9458 926 -184 -166 7.59067.50247.5198 7.17275.83% 7.30192.75% 7.31122.77% 5% 2.2 2.1.2:2015 7.80 7.60 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 6.00 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% / : iFinD 2.1.3:2015 7.60 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 6.20 6.00 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% / iFinD 2.1.4:2015 7.6000 7.4000 7.2000 7.0000 6.8000 6.6000 6.4000 6.2000 7.3 / / CFETS 10% 6.0000 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% / iFinD CFETS 925CFETS 99.83 99.3 0.53% CFETS CFETS + 2.2 1. 2023922 84.63%84.05%CFETS 98.83103.3693.69 BIS SDR 2.16%2.36%1.