产品量增价减，业绩保持平稳

1 指标2021A2022A2023E2024E2025E营业收入（百万元）1,1731,9952,7683,9385,704增速（%）120.44%70.00%38.75%42.29%44.84%归母净利润（百万元）2796056128381,234增速（%）227.01%117.09%1.13%36.99%47.26%每股收益（元）0.310.670.680.931.37市盈率（倍）112.2151.6951.1137.3125.34 iFinD iFinD iFinD -50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01020302020202120222023H1营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收增速归母净利增速-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%201820192020202120222023H1销售毛利率销售净利率0501001502002502023-08-182023-04-202022-12-212022-08-23碳纤维小丝束国内(元/千克)碳纤维大丝束国内(元/千克)60007000800090001000011000120002023-08-182023-05-252023-02-282023Q22023Q12022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q42021Q3营业收入(百万元)487568543589403460469323营业成本(百万元)311336279285222248290196销售费用率1.3%0.7%0.8%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.4%0.3%管理费用率9.4%7.0%8.3%6.4%9.3%7.9%10.4%5.4%财务费用率-0.7%-0.5%1.1%0.2%0.7%2.4%2.6%2.7%研发费用率11.1%8.5%8.9%8.9%7.7%5.0%5.3%5.6%资产减值损失(百万元)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00利润总额(百万元)811541852231131408985所得税费用(百万元)-9 233201122106净利润（百万元）901311812041021187979EPS0.100.150.200.230.110.150.100.10毛利率36.3%40.9%48.5%51.7%44.8%46.0%38.1%39.3%期间费用率21.1%15.7%19.1%15.7%17.9%15.4%18.7%14.0%所得税率-11.5%14.9%1.7%8.8%9.7%15.8%11.0%6.8%净利润率18.5%23.1%33.4%34.6%25.3%25.6%16.8%24.4% iFinD 资产负债表利润表会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E货币资金148.22320.25807.01138.39196.921389.65营业收入532.311173.441994.812767.853938.465704.37应收票据及账款53.4718.88117.59169.10251.63377.74营业成本303.25685.101034.741602.872355.363414.40预付账款5.8622.0852.0869.0197.11124.87税金及附加9.1510.1410.4014.3920.0928.52其他应收款1.495.055.289.1015.1115.94销售费用2.953.976.769.4113.0018.25存货30.95153.55297.72398.30598.20926.10管理费用64.89118.27156.51211.74295.38444.94其他流动资产90.36172.911530.4441.5247.2657.04研发费用17.1859.12154.77215.89315.08467.76流动资产总计330.36692.722810.122407.772290.233785.35财务费用14.1826.5720.9263.1059.8823.51长期股权投资0.000.000.000.000.000.00资产减值损失-52.69 0.000.000.000.000.00固定资产553.642129.532688.103511.994441.934445.41信用减值损失0.630.05-0.02 0.000.000.00在建工程1123.06566.271357.922381.601305.281178.96其他经营损益-0.00 0.00-0.00 2.303.102.60无形资产130.44189.53184.87487.39931.581017.44投资收益-0.11 0.4620.545.004.605.70长期待摊费用0.0017.5337.9728.9912.5015.00公允价值变动损益0.000.007.423.503.002.89其他非流动资产14.45128.66168.39560.40430.70303.70资产处置收益0.180.050.000.000.000.00非流动资产合计1821.593031.534437.256970.377121.996960.51其他收益15.6125.4737.5425.0030.4034.20资产总计2151.953724.257247.379378.149412.2210745.85营业利润84.33296.29676.18686.24920.781352.37短期借款55.86575.77253.381085.9919.330.00营业外收入1.940.700.720.500.300.20应付票据及账款314.02539.13881.361330.601902.352432.18营业外支出1.031.8416.0018.005.003.50其他流动负债167.91124.00160.75219.09288.37372.14其他非经营损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00流动负债合计537.791238.901295.492635.682210.052804.32利润总额85.23295.14660.90668.74916.081349.07长期借款469.191058.961006.491368.371059.98664.59所得税0.0016.4255.8256.8477.87114.67其他非流动负债188.37191.08328.30206.30220.00243.80净利润85.23278.72605.08611.90838.221234.40非流动负债合计657.561250.031334.801574.671279.98908.39少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00负债合计1195.352488.932630.294210.353490.033712.71归属母公司股东净利润85.23278.72605.08611.90838.221234.40股本800.00800.00900.00900.00900.00900.00EBITDA149.29411.63854.881510.732169.642787.06资本公积50.6950.692727.372727.372727.372727.37NOPLAT98.33304.91632.10683.64894.711256.32留存收益105.91384.63989.711540.422294.823405.77EPS(元)0.090.310.670.680.931.37归属母公司权益956.591235.314617.085167.795922.197033.14少数股东权益0.000.000.000.000.000.00主要财务比率股东权益合计956.591235.314617.085167.795922.197033.14会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025E负债和股东权益合计2151.953724.257247.379378.149412.2210745.85成长能力营收增长率28.24% 120.44% 70.00% 38.75% 42.29% 44.84% 现金流量表营业利润增长率239.46% 251.36% 128.22% 1.49% 34.18% 46.87% 会计年度2020202120222023E2024E2025EEBIT增长率121.08% 223.61% 111.93% 7.34% 33.36% 40.64% 税后经营利润85.23278.72605.08597.26807.751198.26EBITDA增长率49.41% 175.72% 107.68% 76.72% 43.62% 28.46% 折旧与摊销49.8889.92173.05778.891193.681414.48归母净利润增长率225.92% 227.01% 117.09% 1.13% 36.99% 47.26% 财务费用14.1826.5720.9263.1059.8823.51经营现金流增长率288.92% 28.92% 177.43% 112.98% 35.36% 15.90% 投资损失0.11-0.46 -20.54 -5.00 -4.60 -5.70 盈利能力营运资金变动32.69-96.27 60.91330.59318.75121.21毛利率43.03% 41.62% 48.13% 42.09% 40.20% 40.14% 其他经营现金流51.242.33-4.89 12.5030.3036.60净利率16.01% 23.75% 30.33% 22.11% 21.28% 21.64% 经营性现金净流量233.32300.81834.531777.342405.762788.37营业利润率15.84% 25.25% 33.90% 24.79% 23.38% 23.71% 资本支出851.281161.291099.113442.001311.301206.20ROE8.91% 22.56% 13.11% 11.84% 14.15% 17.55% 长期投资0.000.00-1490.00 0.000.000.00ROA3.96% 7.48% 8.35% 6.52% 8.91% 11.49% 其他投资现金流-65.14 -9.16 -112.32 -74.16 482.82172.23ROIC15.71% 22.42% 24.23% 18.59% 14.81% 21.23% 投资性现金净流量-916.42 -1170.44 -2701.44 -3516.16 -828.48 -1033.97 估值倍数短期借款-16.14 519.91-322.40 832.61-1066.66 -19.33 P/E366.94112.2151.6951.1137.3125.34长期借款372.64589.77-52.46 361.87-308.38 -395.40 P/S58.7526.6515.6811.307.945.48普通股增加-214.99 0.00100.000.000.000.00P/B32.6925.326.776.055.284.45资本公积增加-193.16 0.002676.680.000.000.00股息率0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 0.20% 0.27% 0.39% 其他筹资现金流632.20-98.55 -63.55 -124.29 -143.70 -146.95 EV/EBIT318.66101.4855.6043.9332.0421.81筹资性现金净流量580.541011.132338.271070.20-1518.75 -561.68 EV/EBITDA212.1979.3144.352