人民币汇率周报：7.30政策底再确认！市场底呢？

731 I2023 7.30 - 20111290 7 YCC YCC YCC 99-103 7.30 731 84 7.107.22 Z0017101 1..........................................................................................1 1.1.............................................................................................1 1.2.........................................................................................2 1.2.1....................................................................................................2 1.2.2....................................................................................................3 1.3...........................................................................................................3 2.................................................................................................4 2.1-.................................................................................4 2.2.....................................................................................4 2.2.1.............................................................................................4 2.2.2.............................................................................................6 2.2.3.........................................................................................7 2.2.4.........................................................................................8 2.3................................................................................................8 2.3.1..........................................................................8 2.3.2.......................................................................9 3..........................................................................................9 3.1..................................................................................9 3.2........................................................................14 ................................................................................................16 ..................................................................................................16 .........................................................................................................17 ....................................................................................................................18 .................................................................................................................19 .............................................................................................................19 .................................................................................................................20 1. ( BIS 7.1456 7.1451 7.1265 7.1338 -0.165% USDCNY7.1790 7.2031 7.1365 7.1645 -0.202% USDCNH7.1672 7.1914 7.1290 7.1590 -0.114% 141.7461 141.1961 140.4265 140.7245 -0.721% 1.1118 1.1083 1.1000 1.1038 -0.718% 1.2851 1.2929 1.2827 1.2867 0.125% 101.0940 101.7510 101.0125 101.7038 0.603% CFETS95.96 —— —— 96.65 0.719% 100.26 —— —— 100.98 0.718% 91.89 —— —— 92.58 0.751% 1.1 2023724-728 CFETSBIS SDR 72816:30 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 72816:307.1645 7.15900.202%0.114% 4 YCC 1.1.12023724-728 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.25 7.15 7.05 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 6.95 101.00 100.00 6.85 99.00 6.75 2023-03-312023-04-302023-05-312023-06-30 98.00 : iFinD 1.2 YCC YCC YCC 1.2.1 7 99-103 7.30 724 4 1 2 3 4 4 731 84 7.10 7.22 1.2.2 7.20 1.2.3 2. - 2.1 728 7.1338118 2.1.1 1 2 -118 1250 -775 -593 138 RefinitivBloomberg 1684 -210 -1336 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 (0.050) (0.100) (0.150) 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 5 USDCNY16:30 RefinitivBloombergRefinitivBloomberg 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 (0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.05) 2.2.1 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2.2.3 7.30 iFinD 2.2.2 2.2.4 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 -200.00 -400.00 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 : 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 Delta 2023-01 I 2023 2023-02 2023-03 7 2023-04 31 6 2023-05 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 6.20 2.2.5 2.2.3 Bloomberg 银行结售汇差额:当月值 银行代客远期净结汇:当月值 iFinD 即期汇率:美元兑人民币:月（右轴） 115 728 USDCNY 1 NDF6.9520 25Delta 1 2.2.6NDF 2.2.4 2.3 Bloomberg 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% 0.8600 0.7600 0.6600 0.5600 0.4600 0.3600 0.2600 0.1600 0.0600 1M3M 6M9M 1Y1D iFinD 1W 0.6000 0.5000 0.4000 0.3000 0.2000 0.1000 0.0000 -0.1000 2.3.1 728 2309 7.1267 201 429 71 2.3.1 2.3.2 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 7.40 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 USDCNH BloombergBloomberg 2.3.2 7282309 7.1259210