看好新能源转型！哈弗新能源核心增量！

PromisingfutureofEVtransformationwithmajorincrementfromHaval Buy(Maintain) 30May2023 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk PricePerformance Keywords:#risingmarketshare InvestmentThesis 10% Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMBmn) 136,405 137,351 202,604 274,168 Growth(YoY%) 32% 1% 48% 35% Netprofit(RMBmn) 6,726 8,279 5,914 10,016 Growth(YoY%) 25% 23% -29% 69% EPS(RMB) 0.77 0.95 0.68 1.15 P/E(X) 42.08 34.18 47.85 28.26 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% 长城汽车沪深300 Promisingfutureforrenewablesindustryin2023withexplosivegrowthofhybrid electricvehicles.1)Scale:undertheassumptionofstabledomesticeconomicgrowthandsupportiveauto-relatedpolicies,weforecastthewholesale/retailsalesofdomesticEVtobe9.68mn(+51%YoY)/8.04mn(+54%YoY),correspondingtoapenetrationrateof40%.Subsectors(underPTImethods):weestimateEVsalestobe4.7mn(+19.9%YoY),PHEVsalestobe2.67mn(+159.2%YoY),andEREVsalestobe0.67mn(+139.3%YoY).2)Structure:“2superpowerandmulti-weakpower”islikelytotransitioninto“2superpowerandmulti-greatpower”.Weexpectmarketshareofthetop9domesticEVenterprisestoreach77%in2023(vs.62%in2022),whilethemarketshareofCR2(TeslaandBYD)shouldremainstablewithaslightdecreaseto38%-39%,andthemarketshareofothercompanies,includingLI,GWM,Geely,andCAHNGAN,continuestorise. GreatWallMotor:frequentlaunchofnewvehicles&revolutionofchannelconstitutemarginalimprovements.1)Historyreview:strongsalesofHavalH6ledthemarketshareincreaseofentireHavalseries,drivingthelatestupwardtrendofGWM'sstockprice.2)Competitiveness:GWMstickstothecorestrategyofintegratinghighertechnicalandproductpowerinthelongrun.Thelatestcyclereflectsthecombinationofself-innovatedfull-stackenginetechnologyandpreciselypositionedSUVproductstowardscustomerdemands.Weexpectthebattery,motorandelectriccontrolsystemwithindependent&controllablehybridtechnologyandnewproductsofHavalserieswithself-operatedchanneltoleadthenextcycle.3)Corecatalysts:weexpectmaturetechnology,channelsrevolutionandnewproductstobringsolidgrowth.Technology:developedrelativelyearly,LemonDHTledtheindustrydevelopmentregardingitsmaturetechnologyandexcellentperformanceoffuelconsumptionparameters.Product:amongGWM'ssixbrands,oneistransforming,twoisstabilizing,andtheotherthreearemakingabreakthrough.HavelistargetinglargevolumestoaccelerateEVtransformation.GWMplanstolaunchPHEV/EVproductsin2Q23,enhancingitsmarketshareinthepricerangeofRmb100,000-200,000.TankandPick-upsenjoyastableleadershipinthemarketsegmentwhileOra/Saloon/WEYareabouttolaunchnewvehiclesfrom2Q23,coveringsedan/MPV&otherdifferentiatedcategoriesandacceleratingEVtransformation.Channel:inadditiontotheexistingofflinechannelofOra/Saloon/WEY,GWMisabouttosetupanewEVsaleschannelsystem.Openofnewstoreswithlaunchofnewproductsfrom2Q23arelikelytoaccelerateEVtransformationforGWM. EarningsForecast&Rating:Weestimatethecompany's2022-2024revenuetobeRmb137.4/202.6/274.2bn,andnetprofittobeRmb8.3/5.9/10bn(YoYgrowthof+23.1%/-28.6%/+69.3%),correspondingtoEPSofRmb0.95/0.68/1.15andP/Eat34x/48x/28x(peersaverageof21x/16x/14x).WemaintaintheBuyrating. Risks:Lower-than-expecteddemandrecovery,stronger-than-expectedpricecompetition. 2022/2/222022/6/232022/10/222023/2/20 MarketData Closingprice(RMB) 34.14 52-weekRange(RMB) 21.35/44.52 P/B(X) 4.41 MarketCap(RMBmn) 296,300.44 BasicDataBVPS(RMB) 7.75 Liabilities/assets(%) 61.39 TotalIssuedShares(mn) 8,678.98 Sharesoutstanding(mn) 6,132.50 Relatedreports 《长城汽车(601633)：1月出口同比+25%，终端渠道持续去库》 2023-02-08 《长城汽车(601633)：2022年业绩快报点评：2022全年利润同比 +23%，期待2023年深蹲起跳》 2023-02-03 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticular itsemployeesXiliHuang(黄细里) andHuibingYang(杨惠冰). 东吴证券（香港） 1/7 看好新能源转型！哈弗新能源核心增量！ 买入（维持） 2023年5月30日 分析师陈睿彬 (852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 股价走势 长城汽车沪深300 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 136,405 137,351 202,604 274,168 同比 32% 1% 48% 35% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 6,726 8,279 5,914 10,016 同比 25% 23% -29% 69% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 0.77 0.95 0.68 1.15 P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄） 42.08 34.18 47.85 28.26 关键词：#市占率上升投资要点 2023新能源行业增量可期，混动爆发为主线。1）规模维度：基于国内经济稳增长+汽车相关政策友好假设前提下，我们预测国内新能源乘用车批发销量/交强险零售分别为：968万（同比+51%）/804万（同比+54%），对应渗透率约40%。新能源分技术路线看（交强险口径，下同）：EV车 型销量预计为470万（同比+19.9%），PHEV车型为267万（同比 +159.2%），增程式车型销量为67万（同比+139.3%）。2）格局维度：国内新能源车企格局趋势研判：两超多弱走向两超多强。2023年国内前9家新能源品牌市占率预计达到77%（2022年预计62%），且CR2（特斯拉+比亚迪）份额稳中微降（38%-39%），理想+长城/吉利/长安等车 企份额持续提升。 长城汽车：产品频出&渠道变革，边际催化向上。1）复盘历史：公司上一轮股价上行周期核心系SUV行业红利下，哈弗H6上市热销，带动哈弗全系车型市场份额提升，依然围绕【爆款新车】为核心。2）优势总结：坚定长期正确的事，即更强技术力与产品力的整合。上一轮长城大周期主要体现发动机技术逆向开发全栈自研+SUV产品精准定位用户需 求两大维度结合，本轮期待长城汽车三电/混动技术自主可控+哈弗新能源批量新车/独立渠道催化下开启又一轮周期。3）核心催化：技术成熟，渠道变革，新车催化有望带来强势周期。技术维度：长城柠檬DHT混动技术开发较早，技术成熟度以及产品油耗参数性能处于行业领先。产品维度：长城六大品牌一转两稳三突破，哈弗定位走量市场，加速转型新能源，Q2预计推出多款PHEV/EV新车，提升10~20万元价格带市场 份额；坦克/皮卡细分市场龙头地位稳定；魏牌/欧拉/沙龙三大品牌Q2起陆续推出全新产品，覆盖轿车/MPV等差异化类型，助力公司新能源转型。渠道维度：长城在欧拉/沙龙以及魏牌门店基础上，哈弗品牌设立 全新新能源汽车销售渠道体系，Q2开始门店陆续落地，配合新品上市 助力公司快速过渡，实现新能源转型。 盈利预测与投资评级：我们预计公司2022-2024年营业总收入1374/2026/2742亿元，归属母公司净利润83/59/100亿元，同比+23.1%/-28.6%