股指期货二季度行情展望：宽松流动性环境叠加稳增长经济复苏，二季度市场偏乐观上行

09 2017-09 2018-09 2019-09 2020-09 2021-09 2022-09 !"#$%&'()*+, !()! "Š$%&'()*+M-3/0123456789:; 9050.00 40.00 85 30.00 80 20.00 7510.00 700.00 99999999999999 65-10.00-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0- 20020304050607080910111213141516 1!2!3!4!5!6!7!8!9!10!11!12!-20.002020202020202020202020202020 2016"2017"2018"2019"-30.00 2020"2021"2022"#$:%&:'!()!#$:*+$:' 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 2011-09 09 09 -20.00 作者：叶倩宁联系人：陈尚宇 2014 2018 联系方式：020-88818018 叶倩宁 从业资格：F03088416 投资咨询资格：Z0016628 99 -0-0- 20192020 99 -0-0- 20152016 2012-09 2013-09 2017-09 2021-09 2022-09 -40.00 广发期货A,P-P$./:'!()!微信公众号 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 !" <=!"#$%&'()* <>+0+3./0"#'(1234 5 -0-/0&'1234567 ><>3@AB3C>DE1F)GHIJK;LMNO1PQ56RSTUVW1XYZ[\]^_:U1`aJbcdZ[efghijk[lm@AnW>.>pqrsRt<<[lHuivw[lxy :U==.z[qr3.[3q|]b~Ä[lUÅmÇ1vD.ptq1ÉÑÖÜ=<<áHàâäã[UÅmå1ç<.[[qH<.<>q1ãéffiê[l:U<.3pq|JbIëíìä-3îïñ%mó1òôöõúùnû -3ü†°¢A£§•| !0!3$%&'()*+, !0!3$%&'(-.+, !0!3$%&'(/012.3+, 13,000 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 2023-01-01 2023-01-16 2023-01-31 2023-02-15 2023-03-02 2023-03-17 10,000 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 23,000 5500 16,000 8,200 22,500 15,500 8,000 22,000 5000 21,500 15,000 7,800 21,000 4500 20,500 14,500 7,600 20,000 19,500 19,000 18,500 2023-01-01 2023-01-16 2023-01-31 2023-02-15 2023-03-02 2023-03-17 18,000 4000 3500 3000 14,000 13,500 2023-01-01 2023-01-16 2023-01-31 2023-02-15 2023-03-02 2023-03-17 13,000 7,400 7,200 7,000 FG:HIJKLMN0FG:OPQR500N0STU VWN0VWffiYSTU Z[K\DAXN0]^_`100N0STU 3C>>E1J¶ß®¢)G>t©\™B[.ptq´tq¨≠1ÆØ∞±≤≥V䥵∂∑≤:∏1π@∫≤ªG1ºΩæK;LM1ø¿¡¬√ƒ≈∆«»)G1…°J¶ßπ@)GÀÃÕDœ–|™—“” 1><>3r><>[@‘’÷°¢a◊xyDt.=q1[.3qŸ⁄¤°¢xyDt.=q1[.=q‹1›jfl1π@ ‡·)G>t©\™1‚><>[@‘‡ªGpt©\™|±J¶ß„‰ÂÊ∑)GÁV1JË[lÈJÍÎÏ÷Ì–:U1º±„2Â)G¤V1ÓÔK;ÒHÚ⁄:Ûä)GÙı°¢ˆ_2˜∫U¯ )456789: );<$=>?$=;@ABC );DEFGH3 W| 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 FG:Gabcd:10"FG:Gabcd:2" 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 2019-03-01 2019-09-01 2020-03-01 2020-09-01 2021-03-01 2022-03-01 2022-09-01 2023-03-01 2019-03 1 -25,000 2021-09-0 FG:efghijk0:lmFG:efghijk0:n) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2019-09 2020-03 2020-09 2021-03 2021-09 2022-03 2022-09 -10 !"S$%&'()*+,+1I%/012345%67899:6719995;<=>%?@ABC.1EFGH.+CFIJK+99:4789L?@45M.+1F%1.19FN O9O+'PQRST%UVWXYZ[:\]^_`abcdef%0g2hijkl%mnopqrs]%tunvwTxy%0gz[|]1~ÄÅN]ÇÉÑÖÜáàâäã0åçhéèêëíìî%ïñó%òô%öôõúùûPRü5g$Ib†°¢£]%mnÇk§•¶ìîß®©ÄN]™U´¨≠ÆØ∞±%≤≥¥µ∂∑∏π%∫ªº≥Ωæfø%¿1¡¬ √ƒ¶¨¥%≈t∆nv«»…†xÀI[N O9OO'Õ†»'+,Œœ–—“%D‘’÷◊GòôGÿŸnv⁄¤‹≠OO'›fifl‡>·%‚„‰ÂfQRÊÁËæN IJ300KLMN0 OMN00KOMP000 6,000 8,500 5,500 8,000 5,000 7,500 4,500 7,000 4,000 6,500 3,500 6,0005,500 3,000 5,000 2,500 4,500 2,000 4,000 2019-03-01 2019-06-01 2019-09-01 2019-12-01 2020-03-01 2020-06-01 2020-09-01 2020-12-01 2021-03-01 2021-06-01 2021-09-01 2021-12-01 2022-03-01 2022-06-01 2022-09-01 2022-12-01 2023-03-01 2019-001 2019-06-01 2019-09-01 2019-12-01 2020-03-01 2020-06-01 2020-09-01 2020-12-01 2021-03-01 2021-06-01 2021-09-01 2021-12-01 2022-03-01 2022-06-01 2022-09-01 2022-12-01 2023-03-01 3- op300N0qr50N0Dr500N0Dr1000 X˘˙˚\¸íì˝π@‰34á˛1ˇørˇHX˘˙˚d"xÜ≠#\¸D$1Û0t´=t™¨≠#&ˇ¬rˇ¡X˘˙˚\¸I$md1>CB3C¢≠\¸d()01*4m+,vt<™á:1-R3C3=E//0‚$◊˝™| ⁄Q1(1:5Ê234@5…x6°7”><>3@‡89x6:;1<=>$V\¸| IJ300KLMN01QRSTU+, 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 OMN00KOMP0001QRSTU+, 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 -90 -120 12/27/2018 3/27/2019 6/27/2019 9/27/2019 12/27/2019 3/27/2020 6/27/2020 9/27/2020 12/27/2020 3/27/2021 6/27/2021 9/27/2021 12/27/2021 3/27/2022 6/27/2022 9/27/2022 12/27/2022 3/27/2023 6/27/2019 6/27/2020 6/27/2021 6/27/2022 -150 12/27/2018 12/27/2019 12/27/2020 12/27/2021 12/27/2022 IFstMuvwIHstMuvw ICstMuvwIMstMuvw Z[¢?@ABíì˝π@‰34á˛1Úæ3C><ECDπEFGHIªDJxÁ>.31KZ[ ¢?EL@ABMNL:Û1”OP4mÇ&ˇørˇ¬@AB±K˜aQ¤1‰34EL@A±p J´DJFÁ≠| Z[¢?REBíì˝KdZ[¢?REB‰34LfSnª| *.=VRSWXYZ[\]^ *.=V_`[\]^ 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 1/2/2019 4/2/2019 7/2/2019 10/2/2019 1/2/2020 4/2/2020 7/2/2020 10/2/2020 1/2/2021 4/2/2021 7/2/2021 10/2/2021 1/2/2022 4/2/2022 7/2/2022 10/2/2022 1/2/2023 0 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 1/2/2019 4/2/2019 7/2/2019 10/2/2019 1/2/2020 4/2/2020 7/2/2020 10/2/2020 1/2/2021 4/2/2021 7/2/2021 10/2/2021 1/2/2022 4/2/2022 7/2/2022 10/2/2022 1/2/2023 0 ICxyz[$IMxyz[$IHxyz[$IFxyz[$IF|]$IH|]$IC|]$IM|]$ 2 -0-/89%&'45()*+ O9O+''(%È\]%1,«O,%∫ªd^_`aôÍËÎ%ÏÌÓtÔŠÚ%∫ª2h6Û4ÙNıÚO,%UVWö ˆh˜Î¯f%˘˙XY%ÏÌÓtıª\˚¸˝%˛ˇI!"#Š¬N$Â+,OCI%6!%&´¨'‚(ø)]%ÏÌÓt˘˙X*ŠÚN+,‚„%-QR".∫ªÓt$Âø)/01‡(Ót23ŠÚ]‰<X45%678º≥9: ;I<*%=>‚(f%8Ó?÷@AcdÇ.BCDEFZ[ËG%6…†Ë"IJKf16!1L∫ªM"º≥?N1OPQ1N abcd ;@ABCe)4567f8 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 ÅÅ4.5-4.75% 2022"3!4~25 vÄÅ0.5% 2023"2!:~25vÄ 2023-01-04 2023-01-11 2023-01-18 2023-01-25 2023-02-01 2023-02-08 2023-02-15 2023-02-22 2023-03-01 2023-03-08 2023-03-15 2023-03-22 2023-03-29 01 3- 2.0 2019-0 2019-09-01 2020-03-01 2020-09-01 2021-03-01 2021-09-01 2022-03-01 2022-09-01 2023-03-01 ÇÉÑÖSÜáU R˙%‹≠STU$%?"qV≠çW.X≠b‘S?TY%+,Z"qV≠‹≠[‰Â='ß<x1\]X^_`Pa!"fibJKcæ%uÓdef%-ag„hh˜>i1–O,kXÓl:m≠nPPopqfr%qV≠‹≠›fi÷sßtuNW.XvÓS$%wPQRO,O9I%7x†∞yk[Xz[vÓ|t]~mM[%+,%∞tÄ:7x†Å?@∞yO+ÇÉÑ:ÖÜáà∞¨öâä%ã˙‰å≠.