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2022年业绩预增点评：全年出货预计翻倍增长，单位盈利环增超预期

2023-01-30陈睿彬东吴证券别***

AI智能总结

Pylon Technologies' 2022 earnings estimate indicates a significant increase in net profit, with estimated net profit ranging from Rmb1.18 to Rmb1.31 billion, up 273-314% YoY. 22Q4 estimated net profit is expected to be Rmb535-665mn, up by 723-923% YoY and 40-75% QoQ, higher than market expectations. The company's product shipments are expected to increase by 20-30% QoQ in 22Q4, driven by capacity expansion of 4gwh during the quarter. Profit per unit of Pylon's product is expected to maintain at a high level in 2023 due to stable price per unit and cost reduction from scaling. The market demand for residential energy storage is expected to double in both 2022 and 2023, despite the fluctuation of European electricity prices. Overall, Pylon Technologies is expected to continue its strong growth in the coming years.

PylonTechnologies(688063) EquityResearch•CompanyResearch•Cell 2022earningestimatequicktake:Pylon’sproductshipmentsdoubledin2022andprofitperunitin22Q4increasedrapidlyQoQ Buy(Maintain) 30January2023 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hkPriceMovement Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMBmn) 2,063 5,886 13,547 19,566 Growth(YoY%) 84% 185% 130% 44% Netprofit(RMBmn) 316 1,257 2,801 3,868 Growth(YoY%) 15% 298% 123% 38% EPS(RMB) 2.04 8.12 18.09 24.98 P/E(X) 150.50 37.85 16.99 12.30 212% 188% 164% 140% 116% 92% 68% 44% 20% PTCSI300 InvestmentThesis Event:Pylonreleasedits2022earningestimateon12/1/2023.Pylon’s2022estimatednetprofitisRmb1.18-1.31bn,upby273-314%YoY;22Q4estimatednetprofitis -4% -28% 2022/01/12 2022/05/132022/09/112023/01/10 Rmb535-665mn,upby723-923%YoYand40-75%QoQ,higherthanmarketexpectations. Pylon’sproductshipmentsincreasedby20-30%QoQandtheprofitperunitgrowthQoQexceededmarketexpectationin22Q4.WeexpectthatPylon’sproductshipmentswillincreaseby20-30%QoQto1.2-1.3gwhin22Q4duetocapacity MarketData Closingprice(RMB)307.30 52-weekRange(RMB)112.41/511.69P/B(X)13.02 expansionof4gwhduringthequarter.WeexpectthatPylon’sproductshipmentswillincreasebymorethan120%YoYto3.4-3.5gwhin2022andmorethan100%YoYtomorethan8gwhin2023.ProfitperunitofPylon’sproductwasabout0.45-0.5Rmb/whin22Q4duetotheincreaseofpriceperunit(transmittheincreaseinthecostoflithium FloatingMarketCap (RMBmn) BasicData 25,509.74 carbonatetothedownstream)andreductionoffreightandexchangecosts.Weexpecttheprofitperunitwillmaintainatahighlevelin2023duetostablepriceperunitandcostreductionfromscaling. ThefluctuationofEuropeanelectricitypricesdoesnotchangetheeconomyofresidentialenergystorage,ofwhichthemarketdemandisverylikelytodoubleinboth2022and2023.In2022,theriseinenergycostsinEuropehaspromotedthehighgrowthofresidentialPVsystem.AlthoughtheEUhasrecentlyissuedapolicytorestrictthepriceofnon-gaselectricityunder180euros/MWh,resultinginfluctuationsofelectricityprices,theterminalelectricitypricestillremainsatmorethan40eurocents,atwhichresidentialPVenergystoragesystemsarestilleconomical.Weexpectthattheinstalledcapacityofresidentialenergystoragesystemwillincreaseby296%/105%YoYto11/23GWhin2022/2023inEuropeandwillincreaseby250%/127%YoYto19/38GWhin2022/2023globally.Consideringchannelinventory,globalresidentialenergystoragesystemshipmentswillincreaseby339%/101%YoYto33/66GWhin2022/2023. EarningsForecast&Rating:WemaintainBuyratingwithTPat542.7Rmb(correspondingtoP/Eat30xin2023),consideringrapidgrowthandintensifyingmarketcompetitionofenergystoragebusiness.WereviseupPylonTechnologies’earningforecastandexpectthatitsnetprofitwillincreaseby298%/123%/38%YoYtoRmb1.257/2.801/3.868bn(previousvalueatRmb1.131/2.756/3.865bn)in2022/2023/2024respectively,withcorrespondingP/Eat38/17/12xrespectively. Risks:Intensifiedmarketcompetition. BVPS(RMB)23.60 Liabilities/Assets(%)46.65 TotalIssuedShares(mn)154.84 SharesOutstanding(mn)83.01 Relatedreports 234ffi6(688063)7202289 :;<=7>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 2022-10-20 234ffi6(688063)7PQRSTUVHWXF>?ABCDEO 2022-08-26 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployeesDuohongZeng(!¿#)$QiaoyanRuan(YZ[)andSiyaoYue(\]^). !"ffi$%688063& "#$n&'•()*+&'•Ø- 2022!"#$%&ƒ()!*+$,-.%/0 12345%6$7 89:;<= !"#$%&' 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ()*+,-6/01 2,063 5,886 13,547 19,566 23 84% 185% 130% 44% 456789":-6/01 316 1,257 2,801 3,868 23 15% 298% 123% 38% ;<+=->?<@ffiB-0/<1 2.04 8.12 18.09 24.98 P/E-Cffi&>?<@ffiB1 150.50 37.85 16.99 12.30 _`a< bc7deUf2022 88g>?DhdiFde 20228jklH 11.8-13.1mnFoh273-314%pqrlH11.7-13.0mnFoh289-332%F stQ4jklH5.35-6.65mnFoh723-923%Fuh40-75%pqrlH5.24-6.54mnFoh788-1008%Fuh38-72%FABCDEv 2023*01+30I #$-./ 012 (852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk •ffi:Û  de22Q4wxuh20-30%FyzH[uhADEv|]D~de22Q4wx1.2-1.3gwhFuh20-30%wÄFQ4Åh4gwhÇ4_ÇÉÑÅh BC;< VF228Ö~wx3.4-3.5gwhFoh120%+F238D~wx8gwh+F =>ffi(n) 307.30 ÜLáàhâvGHäãFdeQ4yffiD~uçéhFèHêëíì ?8@A/@¬ffi 112.41/511.69 îïñNóFòôöõúùûüD~†°&MÉÑF22Q4yzqrlH0.45-0.5n/whwÄF¢£§0.35mwÄ•¶ß®õ©F™ywhlH´0.5n/wh+Fuh25%+F228J†yzGH´0.39n/whwÄF BlB(à)CDA•BE(F 13.0225,509.74 ¨ÈáàhâvÆ20238F|]D~Øffi—K±rFffi¥µ°ì~éRïñªºF+•¶õ©°.æffi¿FyzGH°¡—K¬zv Gn) ¢ƒøffi¨R«»PQ… ÀF2022-20238BCRSD~áàÃNhâv228¢ƒ4ÕïñnXFéRP©œ–¬hF—“ÈE¢aw‘’÷ÙÿrŸøffi⁄180¢n/MWhë¤øffi¨RF‹›fiøffifl‡—K40¢0+FPQ·‚„… Àv|]D~¢ƒ22/238PQ‰Â´ HI;< J•l`Ç(n)23.60 `ñKLB(%)46.65 M•ñ(FG•)154.84 11/23GWhFoh296%/105%F2022/20238ÊÁPQ‰Â´19/38GWhFoh250%/127%FËÈÍÎÏÌF22/238ÊÁPQwxD~´ 33/66gwhFoh339%/101%vQ4øÓ‚„ÔπÒÍÎÚÛFãıˆ˜F |]D~de¯˘PQ˙˚¸˝0˛ˇv CDA•(FG •) NOPQ 83.01 GHDëÒ_`="7ËÈ#de228>?ADEF|]N$de22-248jklH[%12.57/28.01/38.68mn&'Dë˘11.31/27.56/38.65mn(Foçhâ298%/123%/38%F)~PE˘38/17/12xFËÈ#P©Q4BC*+£,F-Ç23830xPEF)~/0ffi542.7nF—K123”="v 56787*+£,ë¤ÇÔffi9ªºv 234ffi6(688063)7202289 :;<=7>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 2022-10-20 234ffi6(688063)7PQRSTUVHWXF>?ABCDEO 2022-08-26 Rò¤STUVWPQX)ñ ;iY>PQZ0[*\KF] s^S_`aúYZ[Z\]^ *bëv 345678 34ffi69@c"Dëd `ÇKLd&FGn(2021A 2022E 2023E 202

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