大宗商品策略周报：原油有色逢高偏空，白银短缺行情未走完

2012669 20221204 F3048194 Z0015547 qutao@citicsf.com & 1-501 + 1-5 2.43% 21.7-22/4900 2 80/ 2.43% 21.7-22/4900 % % % 0.6 4.9 10.0 5.5 12.9 9.7 1.7 3.9 -5.0 1.8 5.0 -5.0 4.0 6.7 2.3 1.9 5.8 32.4 0.8 1.4 -1.2 2.6 7.4 -12.9 2.6 7.6 -13.1 5.2 19.8 13.9 0.7 8.5 -8.4 -1.3 1.9 -12.9 11.5 11.5 38.8 0.2 0.8 1.5 -0.7 2.5 -16.0 NYMEX 5.0 -13.2 5.7 1.9 -13.5 8.2 0.7 -1.5 6.6 0.5 1.1 -0.1 PTA 1.6 -3.4 3.2 PVC 1.2 3.2 -28.7 Wind4 20241 2%20242FOMC 3.75%-4.00%5.00%-5.25%3 1210 1250bp12CPI50bp 11ISMPMI2020411ISMPMI4949.750.247.2 48.549.251.552.33 52.550.9. 6% 10PCE10PCE 0.3%PCE 0.2% 5% 0.3%0.4% 10CPI2% 1010+0.7%+0.7%+0.8% 1126.320+8.8+4.5+4.2 -3-1.5 3.7% 11 62.2%62.1% 112021611CPI+10%-0.1%CPI+5%+0% 13.6%13.1%1134.9%41.5% 6.1%6.1%4.2%4.3%1112 50bp2021611 121175bp 19 793123 1 2109 10PPI PMI202211PMIPMI48.0%49.2% 11 55.4%2.846.9%2 9 PVCPVC 1210 11 3 4 12 11 10 11 11 11 WTI WTI / 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 95 93 91 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 M1M2M3M4M5M6 WTI /M1-M2M1-M3M1-M6 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 /M1-M2M1-M3M1-M6 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2022/092022/092022/102022/102022/102022/112022/112022/092022/092022/102022/102022/102022/112022/11 SCSC DubaiSC / 93 91 89 87 85 83 81 79 77 75 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 760 740 720 700 680 660 640 620 600 580 560 M1M2M3M4M5M6 DubaiSC /M1-M2M1-M3M1-M6 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 /M1-M2M1-M3M1-M6120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 2022/092022/092022/092022/102022/102022/112022/112022/082022/092022/092022/102022/102022/112022/112022/1 Contango ContangoBack / 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 / 830 780 730 680 630 580 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 625 620 615 610 605 600 595 590 585 Contango / 3100 / 3000 / 1500 / 1950 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1480 1460 1440 1420 1400 1380 1360 1340 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 M1M2M3M4M5M6 M1M2M3M4M5M6 WindBloomberg11 /800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 -200.00 -400.00 1-5 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 /150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 1-5 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2015-04-132017-04-132019-04-132021-04-13 2016/022017/022018/022019/022020/022021/022022/02 /800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 1-5 250 200 150 100 50 0 /800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 1-5 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2018/022018/092019/042019/112020/062021/012021/082022/032022/10 2013/062015/062017/062019/062021/06 Bloomberg 12 Back Back / 68000 66000 64000 62000 60000 58000 56000 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 70000 69800 69600 69400 69200 69000 68800 / 19600 19400 19200 19000 18800 18600 18400 18200 18000 17800 17600 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 19150 19100 19050 19000 18950 18900 18850 Back Back / 25500 25000 24500 24000 23500 23000 22500 22000 21500 21000 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 23350 23300 23250 23200 23150 / 210000 205000 200000 195000 190000 185000 180000 175000 170000 165000 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 149200 149000 148800 148600 148400 148200 148000 147800 147600 147400 147200 Bloomberg 13 / LME / (0-3) :LME LME (0-3) :LME 150200000 180000 100 160000 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1200000 1000000 800000 50 140000 600000 0 120000 400000 100000 -50 80000 200000 -100 60000 0 / LME (0-3) :LME / LME (0-3) :LME 200 150 100 50 0 -50 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 Bloomberg 0 14 / / / 4.62/2.2/ / 0.64 0.38 WTI0.66 NYMEX0.58 >>>> / NYMEXRBOB ICE NYMEX ICE 150 100 50 2021/12/16 2022/3/16 2022/6/16 2022/9/16 1.94/NYMEX3.7/RBOB 2 / ICE 1.63 / ICE 0.55 TTF / 100 WTI IPE NYMEX Brent 80 60 40 20 0 2021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-10 iFindWind15 ICEIPE RBOB / 4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 M1M2M3M4M5M6 / 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 M1M2M3M4M5M6 ICE IPE RBOB 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 /M1-M2M1-M3M1-M6 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 /M1-M2M1-M3M1-M6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 /M1-M2M1-M3M1-M6 0 2022/092022/092022/102022/112022/1 -50 2022/092022/092022/102022/112022/1 -0.3 2022/092022/092022/102022/112022/11 1125 1258.1 600000 201820192020 20212022 EIA 580 WTI vsWTI / -50 3282 578.6 126.4 1125 SPR 500000 400000 300000 W1 W5W9W13W17W21W25W29W33W37W41W45W49 480 380 280 2010201220142016201820202022 0 50 100 150 / 2000 0 -2000 10000 0 -10000 -20000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 -40000 -60000 -80000 -100000 20182019202020212022 10-2811-04 11-11 11-18 11-25 W1W5W9W13W17W21W25W29W33W37W41W45W49 Bloomberg17 SPR 25 505.9 11 201820192020 57020212022 800000 700000 140.2 20 520 470 600000 500000 400000 300000 PADD2PADD311 2541.5 PADD2204.2PADD3 1102.2 420 370 W1W5W9W13W17W21W25W29W33W37W41W45W49 200000 100000 0 1983/051990/051997/052004/052011/052018/05 PADD2-PADD3 201820192020 8800020212022 201820192020 -5020212022 68000 48000 28000 -100 -150 800