铁矿周报：市场强预期对盘面支撑有望转弱

F03105917 Z0018259 900 2700 800 2400 700 2100 600 1800 500 1500 400 1200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 12 300 1 2 34 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 201720182019202020212022 178 610 78 1400 202020212022 1125 1630 2239 100 1200 1000 1125 21 467 305 772 69 90 200 800 10 559 250 600 123456789101112 202020212022 / 17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% - 2017/012018/012019/012020/012021/012022/01 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% + 122 13278 207 2179+377 3216118 32 19000 18000 17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 247 13000 12000 6500 5500 11000 4500 10000 3500 9000 123456789101112 202020212022 2500 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 122247914850 1249 24000 121 256 22000 20000 2881 878 + 17706 4094 18000 10% 2019 2020 16000 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 255 255 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 255 38.37 5500 5000 2022 30% 5500 4500 4000 3500 5000 3000 2500 2021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/09 1200 900 600 300 0 -300 -600 (): - (): / / 2100 500 25% 90% 1800 400 20% 80% 15001200 300 15% 70% 900 200 10% 600 5% 60% 100 300 0% 50% 0 0 2017/01 2018/01 2019/01 2020/01 2021/01 2022/01 2019/11 2020/04 2020/09 2021/02 2021/07 -PB 2021/12 2022/05 PB- 2022/10 - / 2022 380/ 2021801 / PBPB 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 247 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 0. 25 220 220 11000 10000 9000 8000 1823 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 2019/012019/112020/092021/072022/05 3000 2022 1 3.8% -6.3% 764 2022 2 -8.9% -11.3% 201 2022 3 -12.5% -4.2% -619 2022 4 -10.3% 1.1% -1372 2022 5 2.0% 3.0% -1317 2022 6 1.0% 1.4% -1028 2022 7 3.4% -3.2% 213 2022 8 -1.1% -0.2% 490 2022 9 4.9% 13.4% 300 2022 10 1.9% 12.4% 72 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 05 VALE()() 900 700 500 300 700 500 300 100 123456789101112 100 123456789101112 2018201920202021202220182019202020212022 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 BHP()FMG() 500 400 300 200 100 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 (/)PB(/) 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 123456789101112 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 201720182019202020212022 PB 400 23 45 67 8 9101112 300 200 100 0 1 -100 (/)(/) 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022 -PB (/ ) 5004003002001000 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 123456789101112 -(/ ) 250200150100500 20182019202020212022 500 400 300 200 100 PB-PB(/)PB-(/) 500 400 300 200 100 0 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 0 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 ()() 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 ()() 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 3800 3500 3200 2900 2600 2300 2000 123456789101112 201720182019202020212022 90 / 200 170 140 110 80 50 20 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 2100 1800 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 2019/112020/042020/092021/022021/072021/122022/052022/10 - -PBPB 500 400 300 200 100 0 45(45() 340 3000 320 2800 300 2600 280 2400 260 2200 240 2000 220 1800 1600 123456789101112 202020212022 200 180 123456789101112 20182019202020212022 -01/-05/ 67891011121234 400400 23456789101112 300300 200 100 0 1 200 100 0 5 -100 -100 BD-1805BD-1905BD-2005 BD-1801BD-1901BD-2001BD-2105BD-2205BD-2305BD-2101BD-2201BD-2301 BRBF(62.5%) 300 250 9 PB IOC6 PB IOC6 BRBF(62.5%) 200 150 100 50 0 -509 -100 -09/ 10111212345678 BD-1809BD-1909BD-2009 BD-2109BD-2209BD-2309 150 100 50 0 5 -50 -100 1/55/9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 200 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 150 100 50 0 9 -50 1805-18091905-19092005-2009 1801-18051901-19052001-2005 2101-21052201-22052301-2305 2105-21092205-22092305-2309 9/1 250 1/5 200 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 150 100 50 0 1 -50 1809-19011909-20012009-2101 2109-22012209-23012309-2401 F03105917 Z0018259021-65789252 dingzuchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn 8IFCA31/33 Floor11,ChinaLifeCenter,No.16ChaoyangmenwaiStreet,Beijing,P.R.China(100020)50128 28thFloor,No.501DongDaMingRoad,SinarMasPlaza,HongkouDistrict,Shanghai,China400-886-7799 www.yhqh.com.cn APP