能源转型中的地理位置与工作技能匹配（英）

MatchingGeographiesandJobSkillsintheEnergyTransition JacobGreensponandDanielRaimi WP22-25 October2022 AbouttheAuthors JacobGreensponisadoctoralstudentineconomicsattheUniversityofOxfordandaneconomistwithexperienceworkingatseveralthinktank,academic,andgovernmentalorganizations.HeholdsdegreesfromtheHarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment,Queen’sUniversity,andMcGillUniversity. DanielRaimiisafellowatResourcesfortheFutureandalecturerattheGeraldR.FordSchoolofPublicPolicyattheUniversityofMichigan.Heworksonarangeofenergypolicyissues,withafocusontoolstoenableanequitableenergytransition.TheFrackingDebate,hisfirstbook,combinesstoriesfromhistravelstodozensofoilandgasproducingregionswithadetailedexaminationofkeypolicyissues,andispublishedbyColumbiaUniversityPressaspartoftheColumbiaUniversityCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicybookseries(www.thefrackingdebate.com). Acknowledgments ThispaperisbasedonaPolicyAnalysisExercisefortheHarvardKennedySchool’sMasterinPublicPolicyprogram.ManythankstoJeffreyLiebmanforexcellentsupervisionandtoMichaelRoth,MatthewBunn,LawrenceKatz,KetanAhuja,membersoftheHKSGrowthLab,conferenceparticipantsatthe2022CanadianEconomicsAssociationMeeting,andmembersoftheIGA-150Yseminarforcommentsonthepreviousversion.ThankyoutoSophiePesekfromResourcesfortheFutureforassistancemappingourdata.WealsothankBillyPizerfromResourcesfortheFuture;LaneDilg,KateGordon,andBetonyJonesfromtheUSDepartmentofEnergy;J.MijinChafromOccidentalCollege;andRoxanneJohnsonfromtheBlueGreenAllianceforcommentsonanearlierdraftofthispaper. AboutRFF ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFiscommittedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy. Workingpapersareresearchmaterialscirculatedbytheirauthorsforpurposesofinformationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessarilyundergoneformalpeerreview.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors. SharingOurWork OurworkisavailableforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives4.0International(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)license.Youcancopyandredistributeourmaterialinanymediumorformat;youmustgiveappropriatecredit,providealinktothelicense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyoumaynotapplyadditionalrestrictions.Youmaydosoinanyreasonablemanner,butnotinanywaythatsuggeststhelicensorendorsesyouoryouruse.Youmaynotusethematerialforcommercialpurposes.Ifyouremix,transform,orbuilduponthematerial,youmaynotdistributethemodifiedmaterial.Formoreinformation,visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Abstract Drivenbytechnologicalinnovation,publicpolicy,andotherfactors,theUSenergysystemisfacingrapidchanges,raisingconcernsoverpotentialjoblosses,particularlyamongfossilfuelworkers.BecausetherewillbeconsiderablevariationacrosstheUnitedStatesintheemploymentimpactsofachangingenergylandscape,policiesmustbetailoredtolocalcontexts.ThisanalysisdevelopsandimplementsatooltohelppolicymakersunderstandthelocalizedopportunitiesandchallengesthattheUSenergyworkforcemayfaceintheyearsahead.Wefirstidentifytheexposureoflocallabormarketstojobdisplacementinfossilfuelextraction,transportation,processing,andelectricityindustries.Wethendevelopanempiricalframeworkthatassessestheextenttowhichtheskillsetsofexistingfossilenergyworkersareagoodmatchforgrowingjobopportunitieswithsimilarpayintheirlocallabormarkets.Wedocumentsubstantialdifferencesacrosslocallabormarketsintermsofthedemographicsoflocalfossilfuelworkforces,theskillstheyhaveattainedfromtheircurrentwork,andhowwelltheseskillsalignwiththoseindemandlocallyoverthecomingdecade.Wefindthat,withtheexceptionoftechnicalskills,theskillsimportanttofossilfueljobstypicallyarenotthesameasthosenecessaryforfast-growingoccupationswithsimilarlevelsofpay,manyofwhichrequireextensiveservice-orientedandmanagementskills.Ourmethodologyandassociatedanalyticaltoolscanbereadilyusedtoprovidelocallytailoredinformationaboutskillsgapsbetweentheexistingfossilenergyworkforceandin-demandsectors,suggestingareaswhereworkforcedevelopmentmaybearthemostfruit. Contents 1.Introduction1 2.RelatedResearch2 2.1.EnergyandEnvironmentalAnalysis2 2.2.BroaderUSLaborMarketDynamics4 3.DataandMethods5 3.1.WorkforceData5 3.1.1.JobsImpactbyIndustry5 3.1.2.MeasuringLocalEmployment8 3.2.JobSkills9 3.2.1.OccupationalCompositionofIndustries9 3.2.2.SkillsRequirementsofEachJob10 3.2.3.AttainedSkillsofCurrentFossilFuelWorkers12 3.2.4.In-DemandSkillsfromLocalJobForecasts12 3.2.5.MatchingExistingandFutureSkills14 4.ResultsandDiscussion15 4.1.NationwideFossilFuelEmployment15 4.2.SkillsMatching16 4.3.IllustrativeCasesfromEightEnergyCommunities19 4.4.DemographicsoftheFossilFuelWorkforce21 4.5.BroaderApplicabilityandResearchNeeds22 5.Conclusion23 6.References24 7.Appendix28 7.1.ConcordanceBetweenIndustriesfromDifferentDataSources28 7.2.AssumptionsofPotentialDeca