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能源转型中的地理位置与工作技能匹配（英）

公用事业2022-10-01未来能源研究所学***

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The report "Matching Geographies and Job Skills in the Energy Transition" by Jacob Greenspon and Daniel Raimi explores the challenges and opportunities of the energy transition, particularly in terms of workforce development and job displacement. The authors argue that the transition to a low-carbon economy will require significant changes in the skills and geographies of the workforce, and that policymakers must take proactive steps to ensure that workers are prepared for these changes. The report suggests several strategies for matching geographies and job skills, including investing in education and training programs, promoting regional innovation and diversification, and providing support for displaced workers. Overall, the report highlights the importance of a coordinated and proactive approach to workforce development in the energy transition.

MatchingGeographiesandJobSkillsintheEnergyTransition JacobGreensponandDanielRaimi WP22-25 October2022 AbouttheAuthors JacobGreensponisadoctoralstudentineconomicsattheUniversityofOxfordandaneconomistwithexperienceworkingatseveralthinktank,academic,andgovernmentalorganizations.HeholdsdegreesfromtheHarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment,Queen’sUniversity,andMcGillUniversity. DanielRaimiisafellowatResourcesfortheFutureandalecturerattheGeraldR.FordSchoolofPublicPolicyattheUniversityofMichigan.Heworksonarangeofenergypolicyissues,withafocusontoolstoenableanequitableenergytransition.TheFrackingDebate,hisfirstbook,combinesstoriesfromhistravelstodozensofoilandgasproducingregionswithadetailedexaminationofkeypolicyissues,andispublishedbyColumbiaUniversityPressaspartoftheColumbiaUniversityCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicybookseries(www.thefrackingdebate.com). Acknowledgments ThispaperisbasedonaPolicyAnalysisExercisefortheHarvardKennedySchool’sMasterinPublicPolicyprogram.ManythankstoJeffreyLiebmanforexcellentsupervisionandtoMichaelRoth,MatthewBunn,LawrenceKatz,KetanAhuja,membersoftheHKSGrowthLab,conferenceparticipantsatthe2022CanadianEconomicsAssociationMeeting,andmembersoftheIGA-150Yseminarforcommentsonthepreviousversion.ThankyoutoSophiePesekfromResourcesfortheFutureforassistancemappingourdata.WealsothankBillyPizerfromResourcesfortheFuture;LaneDilg,KateGordon,andBetonyJonesfromtheUSDepartmentofEnergy;J.MijinChafromOccidentalCollege;andRoxanneJohnsonfromtheBlueGreenAllianceforcommentsonanearlierdraftofthispaper. AboutRFF ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFiscommittedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy. Workingpapersareresearchmaterialscirculatedbytheirauthorsforpurposesofinformationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessarilyundergoneformalpeerreview.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors. SharingOurWork OurworkisavailableforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives4.0International(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)license.Youcancopyandredistributeourmaterialinanymediumorformat;youmustgiveappropriatecredit,providealinktothelicense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyoumaynotapplyadditionalrestrictions.Youmaydosoinanyreasonablemanner,butnotinanywaythatsuggeststhelicensorendorsesyouoryouruse.Youmaynotusethematerialforcommercialpurposes.Ifyouremix,transform,orbuilduponthematerial,youmaynotdistributethemodifiedmaterial.Formoreinformation,visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Abstract Drivenbytechnologicalinnovation,publicpolicy,andotherfactors,theUSenergysystemisfacingrapidchanges,raisingconcernsoverpotentialjoblosses,particularlyamongfossilfuelworkers.BecausetherewillbeconsiderablevariationacrosstheUnitedStatesintheemploymentimpactsofachangingenergylandscape,policiesmustbetailoredtolocalcontexts.ThisanalysisdevelopsandimplementsatooltohelppolicymakersunderstandthelocalizedopportunitiesandchallengesthattheUSenergyworkforcemayfaceintheyearsahead.Wefirstidentifytheexposureoflocallabormarketstojobdisplacementinfossilfuelextraction,transportation,processing,andelectricityindustries.Wethendevelopanempiricalframeworkthatassessestheextenttowhichtheskillsetsofexistingfossilenergyworkersareagoodmatchforgrowingjobopportunitieswithsimilarpayintheirlocallabormarkets.Wedocumentsubstantialdifferencesacrosslocallabormarketsintermsofthedemographicsoflocalfossilfuelworkforces,theskillstheyhaveattainedfromtheircurrentwork,andhowwelltheseskillsalignwiththoseindemandlocallyoverthecomingdecade.Wefindthat,withtheexceptionoftechnicalskills,theskillsimportanttofossilfueljobstypicallyarenotthesameasthosenecessaryforfast-growingoccupationswithsimilarlevelsofpay,manyofwhichrequireextensiveservice-orientedandmanagementskills.Ourmethodologyandassociatedanalyticaltoolscanbereadilyusedtoprovidelocallytailoredinformationaboutskillsgapsbetweentheexistingfossilenergyworkforceandin-demandsectors,suggestingareaswhereworkforcedevelopmentmaybearthemostfruit. Contents 1.Introduction1 2.RelatedResearch2 2.1.EnergyandEnvironmentalAnalysis2 2.2.BroaderUSLaborMarketDynamics4 3.DataandMethods5 3.1.WorkforceData5 3.1.1.JobsImpactbyIndustry5 3.1.2.MeasuringLocalEmployment8 3.2.JobSkills9 3.2.1.OccupationalCompositionofIndustries9 3.2.2.SkillsRequirementsofEachJob10 3.2.3.AttainedSkillsofCurrentFossilFuelWorkers12 3.2.4.In-DemandSkillsfromLocalJobForecasts12 3.2.5.MatchingExistingandFutureSkills14 4.ResultsandDiscussion15 4.1.NationwideFossilFuelEmployment15 4.2.SkillsMatching16 4.3.IllustrativeCasesfromEightEnergyCommunities19 4.4.DemographicsoftheFossilFuelWorkforce21 4.5.BroaderApplicabilityandResearchNeeds22 5.Conclusion23 6.References24 7.Appendix28 7.1.ConcordanceBetweenIndustriesfromDifferentDataSources28 7.2.AssumptionsofPotentialDeca

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