2022Q3业绩预告点评：硅料价格持续坚挺，电池产销两旺，盈利持续超预期

Tongwei Co., Ltd（600438） Equity Research·Company Research·Photovoltaic Equipment 1 / 5 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 3Q22 performance estimate quicktake: solid beat of earnings again, thanks to resilient Polysilicon price and boom market of solar cell Buy (Maintain) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 63,491 128,645 158,486 183,377 Growth (YoY %) 44% 103% 23% 16% Net profit (RMB mn) 8,208 27,923 21,501 21,222 Growth (YoY %) 128% 240% -23% -1% EPS (RMB) 1.82 6.20 4.78 4.71 P/E (X) 25.76 7.57 9.83 9.96 Investment Thesis ◼ Event: According to the performance estimate, Tongwei’s net profit attributable to shareholders of the company before non-recurring gains and losses rose by 264-271% YoY to Rmb21.6-22.0bn in 2022Q1-Q3, beating our expectation. In addition, the power cut in Sichuan reduced Tongwei’s 3Q22 net profit by about Rmb735mn. ◼ Rising price and new production capacity of polysilicon materials contribute great profit to Tongwei. We expect that the sales volume of Tongwei’s polysilicon materials in 2022Q1-Q3 rose by 100-105% YoY to 145,000-150,000 tons with average price including tax and net profit per ton at Rmb290,000 per ton and Rmb160,000-170,000 per ton in 2022Q3. We expect the sales volume of polysilicon materials and net profit of Tongwei in 2022 to be 200,000 tons and Rmb27bn if polysilicon material’s average price and net profit per ton maintain Rmb250,000 and Rmb130,000 per ton in 2022Q4. Tongwei’s polysilicon materials production capacity will continuously expand to 350,000 tons by the end of 2022 and to 800,000-1,000,000 tons in 2024-2026. Although the polysilicon production capacity of whole industry begins to be gradually released in 2022Q4, we expect that the average price of polysilicon will maintain at Rmb180,000 per ton under the active demand in photovoltaic industry. ◼ Industry capacity shortage of large size cell push up its price. We expect Tongwei’s sales volume of cell rose by 40%-44% YoY, which slowed down because of the power cut in Sichuan, to 33-34GW in 2022Q1-Q3. We expect the net profit per watt of large size cell in 2022Q3 to be Rmb3-4 cents, which is slightly higher than that of 2022Q2 due to the industry capacity shortage of large size cell. In 2022, we expect that the proportion of large size cell produced by Tongwei to the total will increase to more than 90%. The net profit per watt of large size cell will go up in 2022Q4 due to the quote increase of Rmb3 cents in September 2022. Tongwei is very likely to sell 45GW cells in 2022 to gain Rmb1.5-2bn profit for its cell business. Tongwei has multiple in-depth layout of technical routes of cells. We expect Tongwei to put an 8.5GW production capacity of N-type TOPCon cell into operation by the end of 2022, with a total cell capcity reaching to 80-100GW in 2023. ◼ Tongwei invested and built module production capacity to complete the industrial integration layout. On 2022 September 23, Tongwei announced a Rmb4bn investment of 25GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project in Yancheng. In the early stage, Tongwei mainly focused on ground power station and won a 3GW photovoltaic module bidding of China Resources Power. At the same time, Tongwei was striving for overseas certification for its module to open up global distribution channel lately. We expect Tongwei to sell photovoltaic modules of 5-10GW in 2022 and 30GW in 2023 with a clearer integration pattern. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We maintain Buy rating and upgrade the earning forecast, considering polysilicon material price which is beyond our expectation in 2022. We expect Tongwei’s net profit +240%/-23%/-1% YoY to Rmb27.9/21.5/21.2bn (original numbers are 22.7/19.5/16.6) in 2022/2023/2024 respectively and TP to be Rmb71.6 giving a P/E ratio at 15x in 2023. ◼ Risks: Less-than-expected policy support, intensive market competition. [Table_PicQuote] Price Movement -32%-25%-18%-11%-4%3%10%17%24%31%2021/10/112022/02/062022/06/042022/09/30TongweiCSI300 [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (RMB) 46.96 52-week Range (RMB) 35.15/67.86 P/B (X) 4.67 Floating Market Cap (RMB mn) 211,400.46 Basic Data data BVPS (RMB) 10.05 Liabilities/Assets (%) 50.33 Total Issued Shares (mn) 4,501.71 Shares Outstanding (mn) 4,501.71 [Table_Report] Related reports 《通威股份(600438)：通威股份2022年中报点评：硅料量利双增，新技术量产即将落地！》 2022-08-17 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Duohong Zeng(曾朵红)，Yao Chen(陈瑶)and Yanan Guo(郭亚男). [Table_Author] 1 November 2022 Research Analyst Ruibin Chen (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 通威股份（600438） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 2 / 5 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分