超额利润税：历史透视与当代关联（英）

ExcessProfitTaxes:HistoricalPerspectiveandContemporaryRelevance ShafikHebous,DinarPrihardini,andNateVernon WP/22/187 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2022 SEP ©2022InternationalMonetaryFundWP/22/187 IMFWorkingPaper FiscalAffairsDepartment ExcessProfitTaxes:HistoricalPerspectiveandContemporaryRelevancePreparedbyShafikHebous,DinarPrihardini,andNateVernon* AuthorizedfordistributionbyMarioMansourSeptember2022 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Thispaperdiscussesthedesignofexcessprofitstaxes(EPTs)thatgainedrenewedinterestfollowingtheCOVID-19outbreakandtherecentsurgeinenergyprices.EPTscanbedesignedasanefficienttaxonlyfallingoneconomicrent,likeanallowanceforcorporatecapital,anddrawingsomeparallelswithcurrentproposalsforreformingmultinationals’taxation.EPTscanbepermanentortemporaryasanadd-ontothecorporateincometaxtosupportrevenueduringanadverseshockepisode.ThelatterreflectsexperienceswithEPTsduringandaftertheWorldWars.Differentfromthatera,though,profitshiftingisnowachallenge.Estimationusingfirm-leveldatasuggestthat,atpresent,locationsofexcessprofitacrosscountriesareconsistentwithprofitshiftingpracticesbymultinationals.Destination-basedEPTscanaddressthisconcern.Estimatessuggestthata10percentEPTonthegloballyconsolidatedaccountsofmultinationals(ontopofthecurrentcorporateincometax),withtheEPTbasebeingallocatedusingsales,raisesglobalrevenueby16percentofcorporateincometaxrevenues.Theanalysissuggeststhatinternationalcoordinationwouldbedesirabletomitigatetherisksofprofitshiftingandtaxcompetition.Eventually,EPTscouldmarkanevolutionofcorporatetaxationtowardanon-distortionaryrenttax. JELClassificationNumbers: E62,H25,H32 Keywords: RentTaxes;Destination-basedTaxation;AllowanceforCorporateEquity;ExcessProfitsTax;COVID-19;WindfallTax Author’sE-MailAddress: shebous@imf.org;dprihardini@imf.org;nvernon@imf.org WORKINGPAPERS ExcessProfitTaxes:HistoricalPerspectiveandContemporaryRelevance ShafikHebous,DinarPrihardini,andNateVernon Contents Introduction3 ExcessProfitTaxes:IdeaandOrigin7 DesigninganEPT12 RevenuePotentialofExcessProfitsTaxes18 AnnexI.Gold-PlatingandtheImpactofaTemporaryExcessProfitTaxonInvestment29 AnnexII.ANumericalExampleofanExcessProfitsTax30 References31 FIGURES Figure1:TopandBottom10PerformerCompaniesandIndustries,ChangeinStockValues(%)5 Figure2:BreakdownofTotalProfit7 Figure3:ExcessProfitsasPercentofGDP(MedianofCountryGroup)23 Figure4:PostCOVID-19ExcessProfits(BasedonHistoricalBenchmarks):Industry-SpecificResultsUsingRefinitivData24 Figure5:PostCOVID-19ExcessProfits(ACE-BasedMethod):Industry-SpecificResultsUsingRefinitivData25Figure6:ProxiesofNormalandExcessProfitofMultinationals(GlobalAggregate)26 Figure7:RevenuefromAllocatingEPTsonGloballyConsolidatedAccounts27 TABLES Table1:ExamplesofExcessProfitsTaxes9 Table2:DatabasesandDesignsofEPTsintheAnalysis18 Table3:RevenueImpactsofACE-BasedUnilateralEPT(UsingBEADataonU.S.Multinationals)21 Table4:Gold-PlatingunderaTemporaryEPT29 Introduction Intheearly20thcentury,thenotionof‘tradingontheworld'smisery’sparkedadebateaboutthemeritsanddemeritsof‘excessprofitstaxes’(EPTs)leviedfollowingWorldWarIinseveralEuropeancountries,Canada,andtheUnitedStates.1Aboutonecenturylater,withtheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemic,theideaofEPTsresurfaced,withsomescholarsexplicitlycallingforadoptingEPTsonrevenueandredistributiongrounds.2EPTsgainedfurtherrelevancefollowingRussia’swarinUkraineasthesurgeinenergypricesresultedinwindfallprofitsinthepowerandextractivessectors. WhatisexcessprofitandhowcanEPTsbedesigned?ThispaperdiscussesdesignoptionsofEPTsandtheirrevenueimplications.AdistinctionismadebetweenapermanentandtemporaryEPT,andthefocusinthispaperisonageneralEPT(ratherthantheextractivesector).3Here,theconceptofexcessprofitisgenerallyequivalenttoeconomicrent,definedasreturnsinexcessoftheopportunitycostoftheinvestment.Inthissense,itisequivalenttoreturnsoverandabovetherisk-adjusted‘normal’returns.Thepaperbrieflydiscussesvariousothertermscommonlyusedtodescribe(someportionof)profits.Theexpression‘windfallprofit’,forexample,typicallyreferstofortuitousgainsfromunanticipatedevents.Forpracticalpolicypurposes,excessprofitsneedtobemeasured,andthusthepaperpresentsempiricalproxiesexpressedasmark-upsabovefixedreturnstoequityortotalassets,orasprofitabilityrelativetoprioryears. Thesourceofeconomicrentcanbefirm-specific,mainlyduetomonopolisticpower.Mostfirmsinthiscategoryaremultinationalenterprises,althoughsomedomesticfirmscanhavesizableeconomicrents.Somestudiesreportthattheconcentrationoffirmmarketpowerhasbeenincreasinginrecentyears(DeLockeretal.,2020;IMF,2019a).Economicrentcanalsobelocat