中国经济评论：七月数据修复力度不及预期，经济复苏仍需政策支持托底

CCBISECURITIES|RESEARCH ChinaEconomicsUpdate:Julydatafallsshort;policytoremainaccommodative 中国经济评论:七月数据修复力度不及预期，经济复苏仍需政策支持托底 7月数据显示经济持续复苏，但动能放缓。汽车及装备制造行业主导7月工业生产的修复，同时贸易活动再次超预期增长，显示供应链紧张缓解。然而内需仍受疫情拖累，住房部门持续疲软，带慢复苏步伐。近期部分地区疫情再起仍可能为未来几个月经济复苏带来下行 风险。 预计政策将维持宽松，尽管价格压力上升。央行周一超预期将1年期MLF及7天逆回购利率下调10个百分点，尽管7月份CPI通胀受食品价格上涨带动已经展现出上涨趋势。我们预计近期货币政策将维持宽松以对冲增长风险。财政政策预计继续发力以托底经济，如加 大税收及补贴措施、加强基建投资等。房地产的定向宽松政策也料将持续。 Julydatashowscontinuing,albeitslowinggrowth.TherecoveryinIPwasledbyautoandequipmentmanufacturing,astradedataonceagainoutperformed,reflectinganalleviationinsupplychaindisruptions.However,softdomesticdemandamidCovidconcernsandtheweakpropertysectorareholdingbackwhatwouldotherwisebeafastrecovery.RisingCovidcaseswillposeanadditionalheadwindtogrowthincomingmonths. Policylikelytoremainaccommodativedespiterisingpricepressure.AfterCPIstartedtoclimbinJuly,reflectingrisingfoodprices,thePBoCunexpectedlycutboththe1-yearMLFand7-dayreversereporateby10bpeach.Weexpectmonetarypolicytostayaccommodativeinthenear-termtocountergrowthrisks.Morefiscalsupport,includingfurthertaxandsubsidymeasuresandmoreinfrastructureinvestment,aswellascontinuedsupporttothehousingsectortoeaseliquiditypressure,willlikelycontinue. LiCui (852)39118274 cuili@ccbintl.com YingZhang (852)39118241 zhangying@ccbintl.com Industrialactivityandretailsalesunderperformed Industrialproduction(IP)climbed3.8%YoYinJulyaftera3.9%YoYgainthepriormonth.Thatwasbelowthemarketexpectationofa4.5%YoYrise.Onasequentialbasis,IPpickedupby0.4%MoM,followinga0.8%MoMgaininthepriormonth.Changesbysectorincludethefollowing: Mininggrew8.1%YoYinJuly,downslightlyfroman8.7%YoYgaininJune.Electricityandutilityproductionadvanced10.4%YoY,updramaticallyfrom3.3%YoYthepreviousmonth. Manufacturingproductionclimbed2.7%YoY,afterastrongreboundof3.4%YoYinJune.High-techsectorssuchaselectricmachineryandcomputerandelectronicequipmentmanufacturingonceagaindeliveredstronggrowth,thoughthemomentumslowedabit.Upstreamindustriessuchasferrousandnon-ferrousmetalsmeltingandpressingslowed,likelyreflectingstillsoftconstructiondemand.Mostoftheothersectorscontinuedtoimprovethoughatalowerpace(Fig1). Inparticular,autoproductionrebounded22.5%YoYaftera16.2%gaininJuneasthenumberofCovid-inducedlogisticsdisruptionsandpartsshortagescontinuedtodecline. Retailsalesextendeditsrecovery,albeitataslowerpace.Headlineretailsalesadvanced2.7%YoYinJulyafterastrongrecoveryof3.1%YoYthepreviousmonth.Theresultwasstillbelowmarketconsensusexpecting5.0%YoYgrowth.Onlinesalesadvanced10.1%YoYcomparedwithan8.2%risethepreviousmonth(Fig2).Thecontractionincateringnarrowedto-1.5%YoYcomparedwitha4%YoYdeclineinJune,indicatingtheresumptioninoff-lineactivitiescontinuesasCovidcontrolmeasuresaregraduallylifted.However,expansioningoodsconsumptioneasedto3.2%againsta3.9%gaininJune.Amongallretailsaleitems,spendingroseonhigh-endgoodssuchasgold,silver,andjewelry,householdelectrics,andvideoandcommunicationapplications.Spendingondailyusedgoods,cosmetics,andmedicineallfell. FAIgrowthsustained.JulyFAIdatacameinat5.7%YoYYTD,representingamoderationfromthe6.1%riseinthefirsthalfofthisyear.Theresultwasalsolowerthanthemarketexpectationof6.3%YoYYTD(Fig3).InJulyalone,FAIgrowthwas3.6%YoY,downfrom5.8%YoYinJune.Bycategory: Infrastructureinvestmentaccelerated.Investmentintraditionalinfrastructuresuchastransportation,postalservices,waterandenvironmentalinfrastructure,pickedup9.1%YoYinJulyversus8.2%YoYinJune.Withutilitiesincluded,broadinfrastructureinvestmentwasstillstrong,havingrisen10.1%YoYcomparedwith11%YoYthepriormonth.Investmentingreenenergyroseasinvestmentinelectricity,gasandwaterproductionrose15.1%YoYinJulyagainst24.1%YoYinJune. ManufacturingFAIgrowthslowedinJuly,havingrisen7.5%YoYinthemonthcomparedwith9.9%inJune.AccordingtoNBS,expansioninhigh-techmanufacturinginvestmentisup22.9%YoYYTDinthefirstsevenmonthsoftheyear,whichisstrong.ThisisconsistentwithourviewofanewcapexcycleinChina,despitethemacrochallenges. Realestateinvestmentcontracted12.1%YoYinJuly,downfurtherfromthe9.7%lossthepriormonth.Forthefirstsevenmonthsofthisyear,realestateinvestmentplunged6.4%YoY. Propertyindicatorsremainsoft.Contractioninpropertystartswas0.3pptto-45.4%YoYinJuly,aspropertysalesdeterioratedagain,falling28.9%YoYcomparedwithan18.3%lossthepriormonth.OurhighfrequencyindicatorssuggestpropertysalesdeterioratedinJulyamidmortgageboycottrisks(Fig4). Earlydatapointstodomesticdemandasthemainsourceofsoftgrowth Julyexportsagainbeatmarketexpectationsamidslowingexternaldemand.Totalexportsadvancedatastronger-than-expectedpaceof18%YoYinJuly(consensus:14.1%YoY),followinga17.9%YoYgainthemonthbefore,reflectingsolidcompetitivenessduringatradetransformationphase(Fig5).Importspickedup2.3%YoYbutimportvolumegrowthstayedsoft,likelyreflectingstill-softdomesticdemand.Theresultwasshortofthe4%YoYthemarkethadexpectedbutrepresentedanimprovementonthe1%gainthepreviousmonth. Creditdatareleasedlastweekalsopointstosoftdomesticdemand.JulyTSFandnewloansdataeasedmorethanthemarketexpectedasgovernmentbondissuancedeclinedandcredit