2021Q4季报点评：广告业务拖累业绩增长，成本费用投入加大

Tencent（00700 HK） Equity Research·Company Research·Software Service 1 / 12 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Tencent Q4 earnings quicktake: Earnings miss due to advertising revenue decline and cost hike Outperform（Maintain） Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 560,118 642,794 738,092 855,240 Growth (YoY %) 16.2% 14.8% 14.8% 15.9% Net profit (RMB mn) 123,788 138,699 160,891 192,776 Growth (YoY %) 0.9% 12.0% 16.0% 19.8% Adjusted EPS (RMB) 12.9 14.4 16.7 20.1 P/E (X) 23.1 20.6 17.8 14.8 Unless otherwise specified, the currency unit of this report is RMB. HKD/RMB=0.8145 (March 24, 2022) Investment Thesis ◼ Earnings miss: Tencent’s revenue growth was slightly lower than expectation. 2021Q4 revenue was RMB144.19 bn (+8% YoY), versus Bloomberg consensus RMB145.31 bn; Non-GAAP net profit was RMB24.88 bn (-25% YoY), lower than Bloomberg consensus RMB29.203 bn. ◼ Declining advertising revenues hindered earnings growth, and increased cost caused gross margin to decline. Advertising revenue in 2021Q4 was RMB21.5 bn (Bloomberg consensus RMB23.46 bn), down by 13% YoY, mainly caused by weak advertising demand in sectors like education, real estate, insurance, and games. The increase in server, bandwidth and content costs has caused a sharp decline in the gross margin of the advertising business. ◼ Deferred revenue from games has been increasing for two consecutive quarters. In 2021Q4, Tencent’s online game revenue was RMB42.8 bn (+9.5% YoY). The company’s game revenue generated in the domestic market was RMB29.6 bn (+1% YoY) and that in the international market was RMB13.2 bn (+34% YoY). Supposing that the change of deferred revenues was entirely attributed to the game business, revenue from games was actually RMB45.7 bn in 2021Q4, up by 5.6% YoY. ◼ Fintech and corporate services revenue growth remained stable. Revenue from fintech and corporate services in 2021Q4 was RMB48 bn (+25% YoY), in line with Bloomberg consensus, 33% of total revenue. We are optimistic about the commercialization of SaaS in a long term as the company's CRM system established based on the WeChat ecosystem has obvious competitive advantages. The core SaaS services such as CRM, financial management and instant messaging (IM) have great potentials. ◼ Administrative expenses ratio hit a record in six years. The company's administrative expenses reached RMB24.4 bn, up by 23% YoY in 2021Q4, and administrative expense ratio was 17%, up by 2pct YoY, due to the increase in staff compensation and R&D expenses. We expect that the fierce competition in the professional talent market in 2020 and 2021 will be eased in 2022. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating：As part of incremental profits will be invested in business, we revise down the company’s 2022-2023 adjusted EPS estimates from RMB15.3/ RMB17.6 to RMB14.4/ RMB16.7 and adjusted EPS estimate in 2024 to be RMB20.1, up by 12.05/10.00/19.82% YoY, corresponding to PE ratios at 20.6/17.8/14.8x respectively. As the company has firm business barriers and strong monetization potentials of “Channels” and mini programs, as well as the obvious flexibility shown in Fintech, we maintain the rating of "Outperform". ◼ Risks: Strict regulation; worse-than-expected operational data; lower-than-expected monetization [Table_PicQuote] Price Movement [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (HKD) 366.00 30.70 52-week Range (HKD) 297.00/636.93 18.32/33.83 P/B (X) 3.57 2.91 Market Cap (HKD mn) 4,582,637.04 298071.37 Basic Data data BVPS(RMB) 83.92 Liabilities/assets (%) 45.63 Total Issued Shares (mn) 9612.25 Shares outstanding (mn) 9612.25 [Table_Report] Related reports 1、《腾讯控股（00700）：2021Q2季报点评：业绩好于市场预期，投资计划拖累利润率，金融科技支撑业务增长》2021-08-20 2、《腾讯控股（00700）：2021Q1季报点评：游戏流水符合预期，投资加大将影响2021业绩增量》2021-05-23 3、《腾讯控股（00700）：2020Q4季报点评：业绩整体符合预期，游戏收入增长放缓不改公司强势地位》2021-03-25 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Liangwei Zhang(张良卫) and Jiaqi Zhang(张家琦), employees of Soochow Research Institute. [Table_Author] 31 March 2022 Research Analyst Research Analyst Hanyue Li Xxx (852) 3983 0823 kellyli@dwzq.com.hk (852) 3000 0000 Xxx@dwzq.com.hk -17%0%17%34%51%69%86%103%2020-052020-092021-01TencentHSI Index 腾讯控股（00700） 证券研究报告·公司研究·软件服务(HS) 2 / 12 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 2021Q4季报点评：广告业务拖累业绩增长，成本费用投入加大 买入（维持） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业收入（百万元） 560,118 642,794 738,092 855,240 同比（%） 16.2% 14.8% 14.8% 15.9% 经调整净利润（百万元） 123,788 138,699 160,891 192,776 同比（%） 0.9% 12.0% 16.0% 19.8% 每股收益（元/股） 12.9 14.4 16.7 20.1 P/E（倍） 23.1 20.6 17.8 14.8 无特殊说明，本文相关数据的货币单位均为人民币。港币汇率（2022年3月24日）：港币/人民币=0.8145 投资要点 ◼ 营收增长略不及预期，公司整体业绩不及市场预期。2021Q4公司实现营业收入为1441.9亿元（+ 8%yoy)，彭博一致预期为1453.06亿元；非公认会计准则下的归母净利润为248.8亿元（-25% yoy），低于彭博一致预期的292.03亿元。 ◼ 广告营收拖累业绩增长，成本投入加大造成毛利下滑。2021Q4广告