华润电力 (00836 HK)：可能减值金额被高估,维持“买入”

GTJA Research国泰君安研究 China Resources Power 华润电力 (00836 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 Company Report: China Resources Power (00836 HK) 中文版 Leo Wu 吴逸超公司报告：华润电力 (00836 HK) Chinese version +86 755 23976871wuyichao@gtjas.com 23 April 2014 Possible Write-Off Amount was Over Estimated, Maintain “Buy”可能减值金额被高估，维持“买入” z The possible write-off value of problematic coal assets should be much less than the reported RMB10 billion level and we believe the market has over estimated the financial impact for China Power Resources, due to following points: 1) Taiyuan CR is a 49% owned associate for CRP; 2) the cash outflow of capital contribution for investments in associates by CRP totaled HK$3.628billion, which can be considered the maximum possible investment amount related to the Taiyuan CR case; 3) in 2013, CRP recorded cash inflow of loans repaid by associates of HK$2.68 billion, which has offset the cash outflow of loans to associates in the previous years; 4) Taiyuan CR had obtained exploration or mining rights of the three coal mines and started construction work in 2013 and began producing small amount of coal every month, and as a result we think the possibility of a 100% write-off of the investment in Taiyuan CR should be low. Nevertheless, the possibility of a partial write-off for the book value Taiyuan CR does exist, and now we cautiously assume a 100% write-off of the maximum possible investment amount mentioned above (i.e. HK$3.628 billion). For other coal mine assets, we don’t see write off risks for these asset as of yet. z Maintain “Buy” but cut TP to HK$24.00. The assumption of associate investment write-off will reduce the FY14 EPS by 19.8% or HK$0.5, while the EPS for FY15/16 is also impacted by -2.1%/2.0% due to a lower return expectation of share of profits from associate companies. However, the main business of CRP (power generating business) is practically unaffected by this case, and the cash flow from operating activities of CRP will remain strong in the following years given the weak domestic thermal coal price outlook. z 有问题煤矿的可能减值金额应远小于所报道的100亿人民币的水平，我们认为市场高估了对华润电力的财务影响，由于以下几点：1）太原华润是华润电力持49%的联营公司；2）于10/11/12/13财年，华润电力对联营公司出资的现金流出总计港币36.28亿，可视作与太原华润相关的最高可能已投金额；3）于2013年，华润电力确认了26.8亿港元的联营公司偿还贷款的现金流入，基本抵消了此前年份的向联营公司贷款的流出；4）太原华润于2013年已获得其三个煤矿的采矿或探矿权并已开始建设且开始每个月有少量的煤炭产出，因此我们认为将对太原华润的投资100%核销的可能性很低。无论如何，太原华润进行账面减值的可能性是存在的，当前我们依然谨慎地假设将100%核销上述最大可能已投金额（即36.28亿港元）。对于其他煤矿资产，我们不认为这些资产目前有减值风险。 z 维持“买入”但下调目标价到24.00港元。对联营公司投资的减值假设将使14财年EPS减少19.8%或0.5港元，而15/16财年的EPS也下调了2.1%/2.0%，由于预期联营公司盈利贡献将减少。然而华润电力的主业（发电业务）未受此事件影响，并且得益于疲弱的国内动力煤价格预期，华润电力的经营活动现金流将在未来数年维持强劲。 Rating: Buy Maintained 评级： 买入 (维持)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$24.00Revised from 原目标价: HK$26.00 Share price 股价： HK$18.980 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (4.5) (2.2) (22.4) Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % (10.5) (1.0) (31.8) Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 20.5 19.3 19.2 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%)(x)(HKD)(x)(HKD) (%) (%)2012A 62,436 7,479 1.586 67.3 12.0 11.347 1.7 0.510 2.7 14.7 2013A 69,582 11,016 2.323 46.5 8.2 13.563 1.4 0.750 4.0 18.5 2014F 75,835 9,762 2.032 (12.5)9.3 14.807 1.3 0.670 3.5 14.3 2015F 85,763 12,355 2.564 26.2 7.4 16.700 1.1 0.846 4.5 16.3 2016F 97,275 13,392 2.779 8.4 6.8 18.633 1.0 0.917 4.8 15.7 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 4,791.9 Major shareholder 大股东 China Resources 63.1 %Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 90,950.0 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 36.7 3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 6,514.7 FY14 Net gearing净负债/股东资金 (%) 113.0 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 26.050/16.440 FY14 Est. NAV (HK$) 每股估值（港元） 28.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. (35.0)(30.0)(25.0)(20.0)(15.0)(10.0)(5.0)0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Ap r-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan -14Ap r-14% of returnHSI IndexChina Resources Power 23 April 2014 China Resources Power 华润电力 (00836 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer