高通：老方法还是新突破？2026财年第三季度预览

+12135595917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target +1917344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com +12128457839eva.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Qualcomm (QCO0M): 0ld tricks or new? FQ326 preview Qualcomm reports FQ326 earnings on Wednesday, July 29th, after the market close (callat4:45pmET; dial-in (877)407-0832 or(201) 689-8433, passcode 13761080). Wemodel Jun-Q (FQ326)at $9.6B/$2.20,inline(ish)withconsensus ($9.6B/$2.21)andguidance.Wemodel Sept-Q (FQ426) at $9.8B/$2.29, below consensus (Street at $10.0B/$2.35).Forthefull-year FY26 we model $42.3B/$10.64, below consensus(Streetat$42.5B/$10.78)given likely weakening smartphone dynamics into the 2H,and the startofthemajor AAPL roll-off into year-end (we are below consensus for Dec-Q FQ127too).Forthefull-yearFY27we model $44.0B/$10.16,inline on revenuebut below onEPS(Streetat$44.0B/$10.91)given Streetestimates are likelytoohighonhandsetsbut inconsistent inmodeling newdatacenteroutlook offeredup amonthago at the company's analyst day. Threemonths agoQualcomm'sannouncementofa“hyperscaleASiC win"sentthe stockrocketing, but the shareshave given much of it back since the analyst day (where theirdatacenteraspirationsweredetailed).Wesuspectthedeterioratingoutlookforsmartphonesin thewake of challengingmemory dynamics (the mainreason we downgradedthe sharesafewmonthsback)hasnowre-emerged,andevenwith$5Bindatacenterupsideintonextyear wefeelnumbersremainon the highsideat leastfroman earnings standpoint givenweakerhandsets,higheropex on thecome,and datacenter grossmargins that look likelytocome in belowcorporateaverage. We do think the company is doing what they can, and the diversification story looks real(especiallyas datacenter starts to contribute moremeaningfully)butupward revisions toand the handset narrative may dominate for the next few quarters as AAPL rolls and Androidweakens. WerateQCOMMP,$235PT. InvestmentImplications QcoM (MP,$235):Memoryheadwinds appearlikelytopressure smartphonebuilds andnumbers still appear high though the datacenter narrative sounds promising. or(201)689-8433,passcode13761080) Q(FQ426)at$9.8B/$2.29,belowconsensus(Streetat$10.0B/$2.35).Forthefull-yearFY26wemodel$42.3B/$10.64,belowconsensus (Streetat$42.5B/$10.78)given likelyweakeningsmartphone dynamics into the2H,andthe startofthe major AAPLroll-off intoyear-end (wearebelow consensusforDec-QFQ127too).Forthefull-estimates are likelytoohighon handsets but inconsistent inmodeling newdatacenteroutlook offeredupa monthago at the company's analyst day. Wemodel Sept-Q(FQ426)at$9.8B/$2.29,belowconsensus(Streetat$10.0B/$2.35(Exhibit3).WemodelQCTrevenuesat~$8.4BbelowBloomberg consensus at~$8.6B,andQTL revenues at$1.26B belowtheStreetat $1.28B(Exhibit3). Forthe full-yearFY26we model $42.3B/$10.64 below consensus (Street at$42.5B/$10.78)(Exhibit 4)given likelyweakening smartphone dynamics into the 2H as well as the beginning of the major AAPL roll-off into year-end (note that weare below into Dec-Q as well given that trend). consensus is probably still too high on handset into next year, a function of the impending AAPL roll-off Exhibit 5)andweakening Android dynamics (we note the company has suggested handset revenues would probably decline by $5-$6Bnext year while the Street models onlya ~$3B decline; AAPL alone is probably going to be down ~$5B; Exhibit 6). However,overallour numbers are therefore inline with Street on revenuefor 2027but below on EPS (withdatacenter also bringingwith it higher opex and lower gross margin). ThreemonthsagoQualcomm'sannouncementofa"hyperscaleASiCwin"ontheirlastearningscall sentthestockday,wheretheir datacenteraspirations were more fullydetailed,interesting as thedatacenter numbers andrationalethemselves actually seemed solid.However, we suspectthe deteriorating outlookfor smartphones inthewake ofchallengingmemorydynamics (themainreasonwedowngradedthesharesafewmonthsback)hasnowre-emerged,and even withS5B indatacenterupside intonext year we feel numbers remain on the high side at leastfromanto come in below corporateaverage.Wedothink the companyis doing what they can, andthediversification storylooksreal (especiallyasdatacenterstartstocontributemoremeaningfully)butupward revisionstocompanytargetsthenext few quarters as AAPLrolls and Android weakens. Threemonths agoontheirlastearnings call Qualcomm'sannouncementofa"hyperscaleASiCwin"senttheshares onagenerational run, up 60% over the following month as investors got excited. However, the shares have given much of it backespecially since the June analyst day, where their datacenter aspirations and targets were more fully detailed, and now sincetheirlastearnings and YTD stock performance has been muted (Exhibit 7),interesting as wefound the actual datacenternumbersand rationalefairlysolid. However,wesuspectthedeteriorating outlookforsmartphones inthewakeofchallengingmemorydynamics (themainreason we downgraded the stock back in March) has now re-