中国IP零售商线下销售更新：2026年6月泡泡玛特疲软，同行表现平稳

ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5415 Note:OurmonthlyChinaIPRetailerOfflineSalesTrackerutilizesalternativedatatoanalyzemajorplayersofflinesales inmainland China.Thisreportprovides investorswithinsightsintoofflinesalestrends,therebyfacilitatinganunderstandingofcurrentbrandmomentum.Pleasebeawarethatthedatapresenteddonotrepresentofficialrevenuefiguresfromthecompanies. Datainexcelavailableuponrequest PopMart:JuneSSSGturned negativeat-16%YoY;Labubu4.0unlikelytofullyoffsetdemandslowdownPopMart'sofflinemomentumdeterioratedfurtherin June,withSSSGdown16% YoYversus-6%YoY inMay,asLabubu4.0was not abletooffset thedemandslowdoan.2Q26SSSGdeclined4%YoY,asharpdecelerationfrom+42%in1Q26and+41%in4Q25.Monthlysalesalsofell5%MoMtoRmb1.20mnperstore,only83%oftheJanuarypeak level, despitetheLabubu4.0and manyothernewIPlaunches.Wethink thedatapoint reinforces our concernthat offlinedemand isnormalizing quickly after the strong 2025 IP cycle,while improved inventoryavailability has also reduced scarcity-driven traffic. Looking into 2H26,the key debate is whether new product launches canreaccelerate traffic.Overall feedback on THE MONSTERS × FIFASeries and"Labubu 4.0"-THEMONSTERS Hair Salon Series has been relativelydisappointing,withsoftersecondary-marketpricingandsufficientinventoriesbothonlineandoffline.Thus,wedonotexpectmuchincrementalsalescontributionorpopularity boost from these two collections.PopMart also introduced"DimooWorld x Pixar,"with several products recently.Overall feedback on Dimoo,basedonoursocialmedia checks,isverypositive,butstill limitedtoaspecificcustomergroup.THEMONSTERS,TwinkleTwinkle,andCrybabyremainPopMart'stopthreeIPs. Miniso:China SsSG stayed resilientat+3%YoYinJune;TopToyrecoveredto+4%YoYbut2Qremainednegative MinisoChina remainedrelatively resilient in June,with SSSG+3%YoY,broadlystableversus +4%YoYin May.2Q26SSSG was +3%YoY,indicatinga positivetrend within the sample despite the soft consumerbackdrop.Monthly salesreachedRmb375kperstore,equivalent to93%of the2025peaklevel.Miniso'slarger-formatstorestrategyand IPexecutionsupported itssales recoveryand led Retail /Wholesale TradeChina IP Retailer supported by 21-22% growth in China and high-teens growth overseas. It alsoexpects 210-230 net new stores and high-single-digit adjusted operating profitgrowth,excluding FX.ForFY26,managementexpects high-teens revenue growth,450-500netnewstoresglobally,andaround10%adjustedoperatingprofitgrowth,excluding FX. versus -13%YoY in May.However, 2Q26 SSSG still declined 2%YoY, and thebrand's monthly sales were only 84%of the May peak,suggesting the recoveryremains uneven. We continue to see pressure from traffic dilution and fiercecompetition in similarIP product categories. China IPRetailers:Junetrackershowscleardivergence;PopMartweakenedwhilepeersstayedstableJunetrackerdata showed a more divergent picture across China IPretailers.Pop Martwastheclearlaggard,withSSSGdown16%YoYand2Q26turningnegative,pointingtoameaningfulslowdownafterthe2025boom.Bycontrast,mostothertracked retailers remained positive:Kule Pop Toys, The Green Party, KKV, Miniso,and Top Toy all recorded positive June SsSG, while Kayou showed a strongrebound. We think this suggests the broader IP retail category is not uniformlyvisible. MajorIPretailers'JuneSSSG: Pop Mart:-16%YoY;Miniso:+3%YoY;Top Toy:+4%YoY; Kule Pop Toys: +4% YoY; KKV: +2% YoY; The Green Party: +4% YoY; Kayou:+46% YoY. Retail /Wholesale TradeChina IP Retailer Source : Jiuqian, Deutsche Bank estimate Retail /Wholesale TradeChina IP Retailer Links to previous reports: Pop Mart: Early "Labubu 4.0" Feedback Highlights Growing Risk of DemandFatigue PopMart:2Q26Preview:FromScarcitytoSlowdownPopMart: Jun-26Performance: SharpYoYdecline despite Labubu 4.0 launchPopMart:May-26Performance:First NegativeYoYGrowth Since2024China IP Retailer:IP Offline Sales (Apr 2026): Continuous Softness in DemandPop Mart:Apr-26 Performance: Stable Sales Driven By Key IP LaunchesPopMart:1Q26review:overseas decline continues,overshadowing China strengthPop Mart: 1Q26 preview: continued weakness in overseas markets Retail/WholesaleTradeChina IP Retailer Pop Mart: Mar-26 Performance: Intense Product Launches & Home ApplianceFocusPop Mart: Decelerating Overseas and cautious China Outlook Challenge 2026GuidanceChina IP Retailer:IP Offline Sales (Feb 2026):a strong holiday boost for offline salesPop Mart: Feb-26 Performance: cooling trend; Sanrio collaboration in focusChina IPRetailer:IPOffline Sales (Jan2026):before ChineseNew YearPop Mart:2025 solid,2026 outlook unassuredPopMart:MarketingfeedbackonPopMartPop Mart: Afterthe hypePop Mart: Labubu's availability:a double-edged sword for its fashion trend Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest subjectofthis research,pleaseseethemostrecentiypublishedcoms.Asidefromwithinthireportimportantriskandonflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps:/reearch.db.com/ResearchDisclosures/Disclaimernvestorsnyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosureloonourwebsiteathttpch.db.com/Resare