周末医疗科技脉搏：医疗科技会复苏吗？

Courtney Breen+19173448407 courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.comNandan Kulkarni+912268421436 nandan.kulkarni@bernsteinsg.comDelphine LeLouet+33142139293delphine.le-louet@bernsteinsg.comRebecca Liang, Ph.D.+8522123 2656 rebecca.iang@bernsteinsg.comSusannah Ludwig+41582723127susannah.ludwig@bernsteinsg.comWilliam Pickering,MD+19173448340 william.pickering@bernsteinsg.comJustin Smith+442077625899 justin.smith@bernsteinsg.comMiki Sogi, Ph.D.+81367776991 miki.sogi@bernsteinsg.comLanceWilkes+19173448501 lance.wilkes@bernsteinsg.comJeffrey Walch, MD, Ph.D.+19173448613 jeffrey.walch@bernsteinsg.comSpecialistSales Christian Moore+19173448555 christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com andthemedtechsectormultiplehas compressedby3o%sinceNovember(Exhibit2).Whileinvestorsworryaboutseveralmacrofactors(slowingutilization,margin pressure, GLP-1 impact),webelievemedtech weaknessismoreabout single-stock stories thathavegottenmorecomplicated.Intoday'snote,wereflectonsomeofthecomplications thathavecrept intomedtechstock stories.Medtechfundamentalsremain solid, in ourview,andper Exhibit 4,valuations havecome in dramaticallyformost ofour coverage.For investors whoarewillingtolivewith stories that have abit ofhairon them, we seeveryattractiverisk/rewardformany qualitymedtech names across our coverage. last year,U.S.Medtechhas underperformedtheS&P500by justunder50oobps(seeExhibit1),makingittheworstsubsectorwithin healthcare by a wide margin. The P/E multiple for the sectorhasbeenslashed by30%overthelast~6months (seeExhibit2).Within our coverage,most stocks are down significantly yeartodate, with BSX and PODD as the most notable underperformers(Exhibit 3). with the sector. Could procedure growth be slowing down? Willinflation (e.g.,oil, resins,memory/semiconductors)put pressure onmargins? Could GLP-1 growth disrupt medtech markets?These are all red herrings, in our view. We see nothing wrong with medtech fundamentals. The problem for medtech, in our view, ismoreaboutstories.AsinvestorsremaincaptivatedbyAl-relatedstories,thestoriesforhistoricallystrongmedtechstockshavegotten increasingly complicated.And in a world wherea narrow setof Al winners are driving incredibly strong returns, investors havevery little patience for complicated medtech stories. November2025.We haven't seenthese levels sustainablysince before 2017U.S. Medtech (S5HCEP) Price/Earnings Ratio (1BF) Storieshavebecome increasinglycomplicatedformanymedtech stocks.Boston Scientific (BSX)has had a particularly dramatic fallfromgrace,andweattributeafair amountofsectorweaknesstoBSX'scollapse.Butsadly,BSXisnotalone.Below,wesummarizeseveralmedtechstockstories that havegrown increasinglycomplicatedoverthepastyear. from a high of over 36x in early 2025 to12.5x today.Afterestablishing itself as a reliable high-single-digit grower, BSX'sorganicgrowth shotup to16% ()in both 2024 and 2025,drivenprimarily by two keyfranchises:Farapulse (PFA) and Watchman(LAAC).Watchman revenuedoubled from~$1bn in 2022 to~$2bnin 2025,andFarapulse droveBSX's EPbusiness toquadruplefrom$800mn in2023to$3.3bn in2025.AfterCMSreimbursementcodingforconcomitantFarapulse+WatchmanprocedureswentliveOct2024,concomitantproceduresdroveWatchmanorganicgrowth from18% in3Q24to a peakof35% in3Q25.Investorconcerns about PFA competition startedto percolateduring thecourseof 2025 as BSXEPgrowth began to decelerate.Then in4Q25,BSXU.S.EPsalesmissedconsensusby6%,andWatchmanorganic growth inflected from its peak of 35%to 29%.Bothfranchises continued to decelerate in1Q26 and Urologygrowthwas weak on Axonics integration hiccups,leadingto a dramaticguidancecut after Q1,whereFY26organicgrowth was cutfrom10%-11% to 6.5%-8.0% (see our 1Q26 recap).It was a gutsymoveformanagementto cut theFY26guide after one quarterof a new 12-quarterlong-range plan (for 10%+ organic growth)issued inSep2025.Just5weeks afterthe1Q26call,BSXloweredWatchman expectations again at ourBernstein Strategic DecisionsConference(seeourBSXSDC recap).Additional complicationsto the story include a couple of controversial deals: the $14.5bnPenumbra acquisition in January (larger than the typical tuck-indeals to which investors have becomeaccustomed)andthe$1.5bnMiRus investment in May (whichtriggered investor skepticism givenBSX's two previous high-profile failures in TAVR). Abbott (ABT). In 4Q25, sales growth slowed to3.0% organic (a3%miss),drivenlargely by an unexpected 9%decline in ABT'sNutrition business (missed by 12%) (see our 4Q25 recap).Thedecline was driven by price cuts (primarily in the Adult segment)and infantformula marketshare losses stemmingfromtheloss of HOWDIDWEGETHERE? What's driving this weakness for medtech stocks?What haschanged?As medtech multiples plunge to 10-year lows, investors prices since 2022 in an attempt to offset highermanufacturingcosts,but those increases beganto weigh on volume.Managementtook price down in the quarterto address this and guided theNutrition business to a challenged 1H26 with a returnto growthin 2H26. The story did not get