中国金属与矿业：追踪大宗商品动态（6月8日至14日）

China (PRC) | Metals & Mining Connecting the Dots in Commodities (Jun8-14) Wetrack high-frequency data,including price,spread and inventory week at 4.2%, highest in 3 years, but in line with expectations; core CPI was 2.9%, alsoin line, and high energy cost has yet to affect other prices, which relieved concerns of animmediate rate hike. However, US PPI was 6.5% in May, and ECB hiked interest rate forthe first time since 2023 amid inflationary pressure. The Middle East war, inflation, and unwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports were 632kt in May, +5% MoM/+14.5% YoY; May YTD exports were 2.7mt, +10% YoY. While China exports relieveoverseas tightness and lead to lower arbitrage, we expect the export momentum tocontinue at least in the near term, with LME premium still over 10%. While the Middle East Shuhang Jiang * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1137 | shuhang.jiang@jefferies.com rebounding by RMB7.5/t or 4.6% WoW, thanks to developments on the supply side.Firstly on Jun 8, Jiangxi Bureau of Natural Resources announced the cancellation of"Pre-approval and Site Selection Opinion on Land Use for Project Construction" related toJianxiawo lepidolite mine, as requested by the company. This indicates that Jianxiawo isunlikely to restart in 2026, reinforcing our earlier expectation. The pre-approval is requiredfor official land use approval. Technically, the company could reapply immediately and that ensure energy supply during the summer peak season, coal mining companieswere asked to "release advanced capacities under the conditions of compliant and safeproduction, to reach full capacity when possible and maintain/ increase output." Shaanxiis mainly a thermal coal producer vs the affected region in Shanxi, which mainly producesmet coal. This announcement suggests there may not be significant supply contraction,at least in Shaanxi (16% of China's total raw coal output). Meanwhile, at central gov level, weekly apparent consumption slightly recovered by 0.4% WoW but remains at a seasonallow.• Daily output as % capacity stayed at past-year low of 43%, -2ppt WoW. Spread wassqueezed as coal price remained elevated. Weekly chartbook Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: SMM, JefferiesFigure 5 - CFTC non-commercial net long position Source: Wind, LME, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, JefferiesFigure 16 - China bauxite arrival, seasonality Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: GFEX, Jefferies Thermal coal Source: Wind, JefferiesFigure 25 - Daily inventory at major IPPs Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Sxcoal, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, JefferiesFigure 34 - # of anchoring ships at port (7-day MA) Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Mysteel, JefferiesFigure 39 - Weekly molten iron production Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, JefferiesFigure 46 - HRC weekly social inventory Source: Wind, JefferiesFigure 45 - Rebar weekly social inventory Source: Wind, JefferiesFigure 47 - Rebar weekly apparent consumption Source: Wind, JefferiesFigure 48 - HRC weekly apparent consumption Cement Source: Digital Cement, Wind, Jefferies Source: Digital Cement, Jefferies Company Valuation/Risks Tianqi Lithium Our PT for A share is based on 2028E EPS of RMB 4.6 and target PE of 17x, discounted to 2026 using WACC of 11.6%. Our lithium carbonateand spodumene price forecast is RMB 16k/t/ and USD 1,900/t in 2028, and GPM is 70% under base case. Risks include higher or lower lithium Analyst Certification:I, Shuhang Jiang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or Registration of non-US analysts:Shuhang Jiang is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation PublishedRecommendation Distributed June 15, 2026 0:14 A.M.June 15, 2026 0:14 A.M. Explanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period. Hold - Describes sec