全球金属与矿业：2026年二季度大宗商品与股票更新 - 战争结束（？）后的形势，但影响持续

Global Metals & Mining: 2Q26 Commodity & Equity Update - Theset up as the war ends (?) but reverberations persist Themarket clearlythinks thepeak pain"is already behindus,with expectations thatconditions normalise shortly and hencelimited negative impacttoearnings.TheMsC/WorldMetals&Mining Index,for example, is now only c.5%below itspre-warlevel.Further,there'sbarely any negative impact to basemetals and bulks, although precious metals suffer.So,what to do now? +19173448422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com +442076766825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com as oil, LNG, aluminium, sulphur and urea (Exhibit 4). While Gulf and European officialssee the US needing 6-months for Iran deal,the market seems to expect a faster resolution,which explains why US stock indices are at ATH. Aluminium supply might be disrupted long after the strait of Hormuz is reopened. to 100% while EGA's AI Taweelah (1.6 Mtpa capacity)might remain closed longer as ithas been severely damaged. We expect Aluminium to stay higher than mid-cycle price in2026.Further update will be provided ina future deepdive analysis.We estimate that a1%changeinaluminiumpricesimpactsRIO'sEBITDAbyaroundO.5%.WemaintainourOutperformratingonRioTinto. While thermalcoal supply is not disrupted, demand is increasing as LNG shortagespushthermal coal toact asthemarginal electron,just like it did in2022 (Exhibit5).Glencorehasbenefitedas it has exposuretothermal coaland shouldbenefitfromhigher EBIT from energy marketing business. We expect 1% change in thermal coal price toimpact GLEN's EBITDA by 0.6%. US10Yreal ratehasrisenfrom1.68%to1.89%(atonepointabove2.10%),whichnegatively impact gold prices. The main reason behind higher rates is the fear ofinflation,whichexplainwhygoldhaspartiallyrecoveredaftertheceasefireannouncementIn the short-term, any conflict escalation would harm gold prices, which could be anexcellent opportunitytobuy gold.We continueto seedemandfrom central bank forreservecomments on NATO would only strengthen the desire to diversify reserves away from USDto gold. Mining stocks'valuation remainlofty (Exhibit2)withmultiples currently above5-yearaveragesdespite strong commodityprices.As such,we continueto seevaluationrisks in most of our names, except in NEM (Outperform)and ABX (Outperform) which tradebelow their 5-year averages. We do note that the sector has outperformed its underlyingcommoditybasketoverall except Barrickand Glencorewhichhavenotbeenfullyrewardedforgoldandthermalcoalpricerespectively. PRICE TARGET CHANGE/ESTIMATE CHANGEIN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedFCX, NEM estimate is Reported EPS; FCX, NEM valuation is Reported P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS AsweareinQ22026,weareupdatingourcompanymodelswithourlatestcommoditypricesandFXestimates. WehaveOutperformratingsonBarrick,Newmont,and RioTinto. ABX (Outperform) WeraiseourtargetpricefromCAD86.00toCAD91.00toreflectourlatestcommoditypricedeckandexchangerateestimates.We also adjust the EV/EBITDAmultiple from 6.50xto 5.75xto reflect latest development in Reko Diq.We use 50/50 NEM (Outperform) continuetouseEV/EBITDAmultipleof6.75xagainstourforward2027EBITDAestimate. estimates.We also adjusttheEV/EBITDAmultiplefrom7.0Oxto 6.0Oxtoalign ourvaluation closertomarket.Wecontinuetousea25/75combinationofDCFandanEV/EBITDAmultipleof6.00xagainstourforward2027EBITDAestimate. and Vale, We trim our pricetarget from GBP 24.00 GBP 23.50 to reflect our latest commodity prices and exchange rates estimates.Wecontinueto use a25/75combination of DCFand an EV/EBITDAmultipleof7.00xagainst our forward 2027EBITDAestimate. ANTO (Market-Perform) Weraise ourprice target fromGBP25.50toGBP26.00to reflect ourlatest commodityprice deck and exchange rateestimates.We use an unchanged 25/75 combination of DCFand an EV/EBITDAmultiple of 8.0xagainst our forward 2027EBITDAestimate. BHP (Market-Perform) Weraiseourtarget pricefrom GBP18.00toGBP21.00to reflectourlatest commoditypricedeck andexchange rateestimates.We also adjustthe EV/EBITDA multiple from 6.0Oxto 7.0Oxto reflect relative valuation against Rio Tinto.Wecontinuetousea25/75 combination of DCFand an EV/EBITDAmultipleof 6.Oxagainst ourforward2027EBITDAestimate. BOL (Market-Perform) Wemaintainour pricetarget at SEK580to reflectourlatestcommodityprice deck and exchangerateestimates.We continuetousea50/50combinationofDCFand anEV/EBITDAmultipleof 5.50xagainstourforward2027EBITDAestimate. FCX (Market-Perform) Wemaintain our pricetarget at USD 54.00 toreflect ourlatest commodityprice deck,andexchangerate estimates.WecontinuetouseEV/EBITDAmultipleof6.5Oxagainstourforward2027EBlTDAestimate. GLEN (Market-Perform) WeraiseourtargetpricefromGBP4.25toGBP4.55reflectourlatestcommoditypricedeckandexchangerateestimates.Wecontinuetousea5O/5OcombinationofDCFandanEV/EBlTDAmultipleof5.Oxagainstourforward2O27EBlTDAestimate VALE(Market-Perform) Weraise ourpric