全球金属与矿业：伯恩斯坦“老大哥”大宗晴雨表——我们的铁矿石销售每周实时预览

Global Metals & Mining: The Bernstein “Big Brother” BulkBarometer — Our Weekly Real Time Preview of Iron Ore Sales We monitor real-time iron ore shipments by the world's major producers on a ship-by-ship basis as tonnage is loaded at the world's iron ore export terminals. We present ourconclusions in this weekly report. This unique research is proprietary to Bernstein. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com Our final Q3 2025 volume estimate of 323.4Mt was 1.3% above the 319.2Mtreported. Our Q3 estimates were as follows: Rio Tinto posted Q3 sales of 84.3Mt (vs. 85.2Mt estimate), 5.6% QoQ and -0.2% YoY.BHP posted Q3 sales of 70.6Mt (vs. 71Mt estimate), -8% QoQ and -1.3% YoY.Vale posted Q3 sales of 86Mt (vs. 84.1Mt estimate), 11.2% QoQ and 5.1% YoY.FMG posted Q3 sales of 49.7Mt (vs. 51.9Mt estimate), -10% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.Anglo Brazil posted Q3 sales of 5Mt (vs. 5.1Mt estimate), -24.4% QoQ and -21.1% YoY.Anglo SA posted Q3 sales of 9.4Mt (vs. 11.9Mt estimate), -3.9% QoQ and 6.5% YoY.Roy Hill posted Q3 sales of 14.2Mt (vs. 14.2Mt estimate), -17% QoQ and -1% YoY. Our current seasonally adjusted Q4 2025 shipment volume estimate comes in at339.8Mt, 6.4% QoQ; 6.4% YoY. Our current Q4 estimates are as follows:Rio Tinto - of 89.9MtBHP - of 76.2MtVale - of 80.6MtFMG - of 50.3MtAnglo Brazil - of 6.3MtAnglo SA - of 9MtRoy Hill - of 18Mt BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS This report allows us to estimate (to "nowcast") quarterly iron ore sales from producers in our coverage ahead of the earnings.We also update our company models to reflect latest earnings results and FX. We have Outperform ratings on Barrick, and Glencore. ABX (Outperform) We are increasing our target price from CAD 59.00 to CAD 60.00 to reflect the latest earnings results and exchange rate.We continue to use an unchanged 50/50 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x against our forward 2026 GLEN (Outperform) We maintain our target price at GBP 3.75 to reflect the latest production results and exchange rate. We continue to use a 50/50combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.0x against our forward 2026 EBITDA estimate. We have our Market-Perform ratings on Anglo American, Boliden, and Vale. AAL (Market-Perform) We are trimming our price target from GBP 22.50 GBP 22.00 to reflect the latest production results and exchange rate. Wecontinue to use a 50/50 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x against our forward 2026 EBITDA estimate. BOL (Market-Perform) We are increasing our price target from SEK 338 to SEK 358 to reflect the latest earnings results and exchange rate. Wecontinue to use a 50/50 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.50x against our forward 2026 EBITDA estimate. VALE (Market-Perform) We are increasing our price target from USD 12.20 to USD 12.90 to reflect the latest earnings results and exchange rate. Wecontinue to use a 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.00x against our forward 2026 EBITDA estimate. DETAILS In Exhibit 1, we present the aggregate reported quarterly sales over the past six years, as well as our estimate for sales for thecoming quarter. In Exhibit 3, we show the aggregate weekly shipments, which we compare to last week's shipments and to the quarter-to-dateand year-to-date weekly averages. In Exhibit 4, we show the weekly shipments observed vs. reported. BHP Australia Source: Platts, company reports, Bernstein analysis and estimates FMG Australia Anglo American South America PRODUCT RECAP: AN ILLUSTRATION We monitorreal-time iron ore shipments by the world's major producers on a ship by ship basisas tonnage is loaded atthe world's iron ore export terminals. We know where the ships are heading to and the tonnage they transport. We run the same APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS ANGLO AMERICAN Source: Company reports, WoodMac, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis and estimates BOLIDEN GLENCORE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ betwee