早晨洞察：2026年6月1日

Morning Insight:June 1, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Naphtha:Near-term naphtha prices have retreated sharply, with thegeopolitical premium associated with the Middle East conflict now fullyunwound. Ethylene cracking margins have returned to positive territory onpaper, while the naphtha-to-propane price ratio has declined. On the However, from a margin-allocation perspective, naphtha does not currentlypossess the fundamental support required for a substantial rally thatwould further compress ethylene cracking margins. Given the simultaneous the price levels that the ethylene market can support. Any larger upwardmove would depend on downstream ethylene derivatives being able to expand Looking further ahead, the conclusion of the Middle East conflict isexpected to accelerate the closure of a meaningful amount of ethylene Caustic Soda:Peak-season contract valuations appear neutral to slightly The caustic soda market is expected to receive support from bothmaintenance-related supply reductions and cost-side factors in June. On the supply side, operating rates have fallen to 79.4%, contributing toongoing inventory drawdowns. Inventories at sample liquid caustic sodaproducers with capacities above 200,000 tonnesdeclined to 523,300 wet Downstream chlorine-consuming sectors are increasingly facingprofitability pressures. Losses among propylene oxide producers have Continued declines in chlorine prices would rapidly compress chlor-alkali Overall, declining operating rates, falling inventories, and shrinkingindustry profits point to a strengthening market structure. Against this Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sectorstood at 50 in May 2026, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 reflects This sector saw sustained expansion in manufacturing output and asoftening in market demand in May. The production sub-index came in at The development momentum of new growth drivers continued to improve inMay, said Huo Lihui, a chief statistician at the NBS, explaining that the The PMI for high-tech manufacturing, notably, has remained in theexpansion zone for 16 consecutive months, with relatedsectors Huo noted that the PMI for large enterprises was at 51.1 percent in May, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from April, and has remained in the 2. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's non-manufacturingsector came in at 50.1 in May, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from In May, the sub-index for business activity in the service sector stoodat 50.3 percent, rising into the expansion zone, up 0.7 percentage points While air transport and real estate sectors saw subdued market activitythis month, railway transport, and telecom, broadcasting and satellite The business expectation index for the service sector stood at 55.4 inMay, indicatinga strengthened outlook for positive market developments. Sunday's data also revealed that the PMI for China's manufacturing sectorstood at 50 in May, while the composite PMI output index rose from 50.1 3. Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state-controlledenterprises reported combined profits of more than 1.37 trillion yuan During this period, Chinese SOEs' total operating revenue came in atroughly 26.27 trillion yuan, down 0.5 percent, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance. The SOEs' debt-to-asset ratio stood at 65.5 percent at the end of April, This year's government work report released in March states that thecountry will formulate and implement plans for further deepening SOE and During an inspection tour last month to Qingdao, east China's ShandongProvince, Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing underscored the need to He urged SOEs to enhance their role as major innovators and focus ontackling scientific and technological challenges in line with national Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to en