1Q26结果优于预期；原油价格上升抑制短期营收增长预期

prices dampen short-termrevenue growth outlook 1Q26 results beat; higher oil pricesdampenshort-term revenue growth outlook Target PriceHK$25.00(Previous TPHK$25.50)Up/Downside59.4%Current PriceHK$15.68 Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported its 1Q26 results on 21 May: total revenuereached RMB5.0bn, up 14.4% YoY,1%/3% above our forecast/Bloombergconsensus estimates, respectively. Adjusted net profit was RMB941mn, up19.4% YoY, 2%/3% ahead of our forecast/consensus. Revenue and operatingprofit (OP) of the core OTA business were 1% and 2% above our estimates,respectively.Management noted that both the transportation and hotelsegments are experiencing short-term growth pressure due to a shift from long-haul toshort-haul travel, driven by higher airfares and reduced flight capacity.Demand for domestic long-haul travel may be more adversely affected than China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk WentaoLU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Core OTA businessdelivered solid revenue and profit growth.In 1Q26,TC’s core OTA business generated revenue of RMB4.5bn (88.9% of totalrevenue), up 17.3% YoY (4Q25: 17.5% YoY), 2% above consensus, drivenby a beat in “Others” revenue. Revenue from transportation ticketing(TT),accommodation reservation (AR), andOthers grew 6.2%/14.7%/59.6%YoY, respectively (4Q25: 6.5%/15.4%/53.0%). The rolling 12-month numberoftravellersserved reached 2.05bn as of end-Mar, up 4.5% YoY, while Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hkStock Data 2Q26Eoutlook.For 2Q26E, we estimate total revenue of RMB5.0bn, up6.8% YoY, driven by 8.6% YoY growth in the core OTA segment, partiallyoffset by a 4.0% YoY decline in tourism revenue. Within the core OTAbusiness, we expect YoY revenue growth of-2.8% forTT, +8.1% forAR,and +38% forOther businesses.We forecastCore OTA OP to grow 6%YoYin 2Q26E, implying an OPM of 26.0%, down 0.7ppts YoY.We arelooking for 8% YoY growth in total non-GAAP net profit to RMB839mnin 2026E outlook.Despite short-term headwinds from higher airfares andreduced flight capacity, we anticipate a recovery in long-haul travel demandduringthe summer peak season.We also expect TC to continueimplementingcost optimization initiatives, thereby supportingsolid margin Source: FactSet Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst whois primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analystnor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potentialloss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates,shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyonemaking use of the information contained in this report does so entirely at their own risk. CMBIGMhas exerted everyeffort in its capacity to ensure, but not to guarante