中国汽车出口追踪：2026年第一季度出口同比增长63%，电动汽车激增，纯电动汽车增长113%，插电式混合动力汽车增长146%；中国品牌扩大全球足迹

China Autos Export Tracker: Q1 2026 exports +63% yoy, EV surgeswith BEV +113% and PHEV +146%; Chinese brands extend globalfootprint export volumefrom China reached 1.92mn units,+63% yoy, compared to+43% inQ42025and+23% inQ32025.Exports accountedfor32.4% of China's auto wholesalevolume,upfrom18.3%inQ12025and21.1% inQ42025. +85221232606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com +85221232634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com ICEvehiclesaccountedfor51%ofexportsandEVgrewto49%ofmix,comprising30%BEV, and 18% PHEV. EV has significantly outpaced ICE in growth. In Q1 2026, ICE exportsincreased by30%yoy,whileBEVsincreasedby113% yoyandPHEVs surged 146%yoy.Withoil pricesmaintaining on the highlevel,we remain constructive onthe EVexports potential.EVto rise further in the coming months, as vehicles ordered at the onset of the Iran conflict arenowbeginningto arrive.(SeelinksfromACEA,AutotraderandCleanTechnica) Europebecametheleadingexportdestination,followedbyLATAM.InQ12026,vehicleexportstoWestEuropeacceleratedto+82%,Eastern&CentralEurope+54%,LATAMgrew+52%yoy,andOceania+37% yoy.ASEAN+26%andMiddleEast&Africa slowedto+26%Russia rebounded likelybecause of easiercomparison base and the lran war boosting thelocaleconomy.Middle East&Africa slowedlikely asa result ofthe Straitof Hormuz disruption. Market shareoutsideChina has steadily grown.Chinese brands'share reached 23%inOceania (+830 bps yoy),20% share (+60 bps yoy) in Eastern and Central Europe,19% inthe Middle East & Africa (-70 bps yoy), 16% in ASEAN (+790 bps yoy), 16% in LATAM (+600bps yoy),and 6% inWestern Europe (+290bpsyoy)in Q12026.ChineseOEMs continuetotakesharefromJapanesebrandsinASEANandOceania,whileinLATAM,sharegainsare primarily atthe expense of European players,followed by Japanese. In Western Europe,local incumbents maintain strong positions,with Chinese OEMs largely competing with andgaining share from other Asian brands. Chery led overall passenger vehicle exports in Q12026, followed by BYD whichdominatedEVshipments,andGeelysawthestrongestgrowth,jumpingtothirdplace.units, +56% yoy, 16% share), Geely (203k units,+129% yoy,11% share), SAlC (175k units,+68% yoy, 9% share), and Great Wall (112k units, +47% yoy, 6% share).For EVs, BYDexported the most, and Geely surpassed Tesla to be the second. BYD exported 312k units,+56% yoy,making up 33% of EV exports.Geely exported 125k units, +620% yoy,making up13% of EV exports.Tesla shipped 101k units,+164% yoyand 11%of volume. WemaintainanOutperform rating onBYD,reflecting its robustoverseasgrowthtrajectory. The company continues to expand across Europe, ASEAN, and LATAMsupported by a diversified EV portfolio and stronger brand positioning versus other ChineseOEMs. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Wemaintain a cautious outlook forthe Chinese Autos sectorentering2026.The reduction in subsidies and a5% purchasefrom material cost inflation headwinds. We expect industry wholesale volumes to reach 28-29 mn units, falling 4-8% yoy.Weforecast domestic retail demand of 21-22mn units, declining 5-9% yoy. Exports should remain a growth driver, arriving at 6.5-7mn units, growing 10-20% yoy. The long term secular growth outlook for EVs remains intact and even though EVtransition has come to the mass adoptionphase in China,weforecastdomestic EVsales growthwill be c.5-10%for2026anddriveEVpenetrationto61%.Webelievecompetition within the domestic market will remain intense and overseas markets are increasingly important as a strategicgrowth opportunity.For our EVnames, werate BYD and Xiaomi Outperform,andXPeng, Li Auto,NIO Market-Perform. 8 Apr2026-Global Autos:Are Europeans ready for a Chinese car?Key webinartakeaways Headwinds for U.S. gas-guzzlers4Mar 2026-Global Autos: SizingtheImpact of theIran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Disruptions (in7charts) I.CHINA'SPASSENGERVEHICLEEXP0RTS+63%YOYINQ12026,WITHBEV+113%ANDPHEV+146%Chinanewpassengervehicleexportvolumecame in at1.92mn units,+63% yoy,forQ12026,accordingtoCAAM.Exportis 32.4%ofChinaautowholesale,comparedto18.3% inQ12025and21.1% inQ42025.Bypowertrain,forQ12026,ICE,BEVandPHEVpowertrain represented51%,30%,18%ofthe exportmix,respectively.ICE increasedby30%yoyanddecreasedby-1% qoq, BEV grew 113% yoy and 15% qoq, and PHEV grew 146% yoy but -2% qoq. (Exhibit 2) 20264M China auto export volume grew69% yoyto 2.72mn units.Exportis 33.7% of China auto wholesale,comparedto18.6% in 2025 4M.By powertrain,for 2025,ICE,BEV,and PHEV powertrain represented50%,31%,19% of the export mix,respectively.ICE increased35% yoy,BEVgrew 105%yoy,and PHEVgrew166% yoy.(Exhibit3) Bydestination,accordingtodatafromChina Customswhich includes newand usedcar exports,passengervehicle exports totheWestern Europe, East& Central Europe,LATAM,ASEAN,and Oceania markets experienced strong yoy growth.In Q12026, WestEurope grew +82%, followed by East & Central Europe +54%, LATAM +52%, Oceania +37%, while Middle East & Africa andthe deceleration in ASEAN is likely due to the termination of a few government subsidies in Thailand and Indonesia. in