劳动力市场升温：气温上升对欧洲企业和就业的影响

Policy Research Working Paper Rising Heat in the Labor Market The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Firms and Jobsin EuropePublic Disclosure Authorized Luca BettarelliThomas FaroleMichael GanslmeirIndhira Vanessa SantosMarc Schiffbauer International Finance CorporationSocial Policy Global Department & Policy Research Working Paper11375 Abstract This paper studies the impact of rising heat on labor mar-kets across Europe by combining geocoded district-level,establishment-level, and wet-bulb temperature data. At thedistrict level, it constructs a panel covering 1,525 districtsacross 32 countries from 1980 to 2023, disaggregated by10 economic sectors to estimate dynamic labor marketresponses to wet-bulb temperature increases. The papercomplements the analysis using representative, geocodedsurveys covering more than 46,000 establishments. Thegranular microdata spanning many countries and decadesare essential to identify the gradual impact of wet-bulb employment in Europe by around 1.1 million jobs, equiv-alent to more than half of a normal year of employmentgrowth. The effect is stronger in heat-exposed, low-wage,and labor-intensive sectors, as well as in small and youngestablishments, and varies systematically with regionalincome. The increased temperature leads to declines intotal hours worked and gross value-added levels. In con-trast to the negative employment impact, real average wagegrowth rises after temperature increases because low-skillworkers and low-wage establishments bear the brunt of theemployment impact within sectors. As a result, the compo- This paper is a product of the International Finance Corporation, the Social Policy Global Department, and the Trade,Competition, and Business Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank Group to provide open accessto its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research WorkingPapers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at tfarole@ifc.org, The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Rising Heat in the Labor Market: The Impact of RisingTemperatures on Firms and Jobs in Europe1 Luca Bettarelli2, Thomas Farole3, Michael Ganslmeir4,Indhira Vanessa Santos5,MarcSchiffbauer6 Keywords:Climate change; Labor markets; Wet-bulb temperature; Adaptation JEL codes:Q54; J21; R11 I.Introduction In 2021, Florida,a small town in Sicily, Italy, recorded Europe’s highest temperature to date—48.8°C. Record-breaking heatwaves with temperatures up to 46 degrees hit Southern Europein 2010, 2022, 2024, and 2025. The events reflect a marked intensification of heat stress inEurope in recent decades, with both mean and extreme temperatures rising sharply across To address these questions, we leverage the rich district-level variation in climate withincountries. We combine satellite weather data with granular standardized district-level paneldataacross 32 European countries from 1980-2023 alongside geocoded representativeestablishment surveys to assess how rising temperatures, adjusted for humidity and wind, affect An extensive literature has examined the economic effects of heat stress on economicactivity.Earlier studies relied on cross-country data which cannot adequately addressdifferencesin macroeconomic and unobservable institutions across countries,raisingendogeneity concerns (e.g., Durlauf et al., 2009; Hauk and Wacziarg, 2009). To overcome this, We contribute to this micro-founded literature by combining granular climate and labordata across many countries over a long time, which is essential for identifying the gradualimpacts of climate change on labor market outcomes. Unlike earlier studies, thisfurther allowsus to assess how firms and local labor markets respond to similar long-term temperature trends Specifically, in this paper, we construct a panel covering 1,525 NUTS-3 districts across32 European countries from 1980–2023, disaggregated by ten economic sectors.7For eachdistrict–sector–year observation, we precisely match wet-bulb temperature (WBT) data usinggeo-coded climate grids, allowing us to capture highly localized weather changes. The rich We complement the district data with geocoded World Bank Enterprise Surveys(WBES) covering 46,000 establishments for the same countries. The data contain detailedinformation on establishments’ employment, wages, workers’ skills, investments in climateadaptation such as cooling systems or energy management, and local business environment Notably, combining the geocoded climate data with granular subnational