2025年金融稳定报告（11月刊）

The Federal Reserve System is the centralbank of the United States. It performs five keyfunctions to promote the effective operationof the U.S. economy and, more generally, thepublic interest. The Federal Reserve ■conducts the nation’s monetary policyto promote maximum employmentand stable prices in the U.S. economy; ■promotes the stability of the financial systemand seeks to minimizeand contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement inthe U.S. and abroad; ■promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutionsand monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole; ■fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiencythroughservices to the banking industry and U.S. government that facilitateU.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and ■promotes consumer protection and community developmentthroughconsumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis ofemerging consumer issues and trends, community economic developmentactivities, and administration of consumer laws and regulations. To learn more about us, visitwww.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm. Contents Purpose and Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iiiOverview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Asset Valuations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Box 1.1. Artificial Intelligence and Algorithmic Trading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152Borrowing by Businesses and Households. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173Leverage in the Financial Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .274Funding Risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37Box 4.1. A More Targeted Assessment of Short-Term Funding Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .405Near-Term Risks to the Financial System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49Box 5.1. Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51Appendix:Figure Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53Revisions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 Purpose and Framework This report presents the Federal Reserve Board’s current assessment of the stability of the U.S.financial system. By publishing this report, the Board intends to promote public understand-ing by increasing transparency around, and creating accountability for, the Federal Reserve’sviews on this topic. Financial stability supports the objectives assigned to the Federal Reserve,including full employment and stable prices, a safe and sound banking system, and an efficientpayments system. A financial system is considered stable whenbanks, other lenders, and financial marketsare able to provide households, communities,and businesses with the financing they needto invest, grow, and participate in a well-functioning economy—and can do so evenwhen hit by adverse events, or “shocks.” More on the FederalReserve’s Monitoring Efforts See the Financial Stability section of theFederal Reserve Board’s website for moreinformation on how the Federal Reservemonitors the stability of the U.S. and worldfinancial systems. Consistent with this view of financial stabil-ity, the Federal Reserve Board’s monitoringframework distinguishes between shocks to,and vulnerabilities of, the financial system.Shocks are inherently difficult to predict,while vulnerabilities, which are the aspectsof the financial system that would exacerbatestress, can be monitored as they build up orrecede over time. As a result, the frameworkfocuses primarily on assessing vulnerabilities,with an emphasis on four broad categoriesand how those categories might interact toamplify stress in the financial system.1 The website includes: •a more detailed look at our monitoringframework for assessing risk in eachcategory;•more data and research on related topics;•information on how we coordinate, cooper-ate, and otherwise take action on financialsystem issues; and•public education resources describing theimportance of our efforts. 1.Valuation pressuresarise when asset prices are high relative to economic fundamentals orhistorical norms. These developments are often driven by an increased willingness of investorsto take on risk. As such, elevated valuation pressures may increase the possibility of outsizeddrops in asset prices (see Section 1, Asset Valuations). 2.Excessiveborrowing by businesses and householdsexposes the borrowers to distress iftheir incomes decline or the assets they own fall in value. In these cases, businesses andhouseholds with high