2025年新闻、媒体及技术趋势与预测报告

Nic Newman and Federica Cherubini Contents About the Authors2 Acknowledgements2 Executive Summary3 About the Authors Nic Newmanis Senior Research Associate at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism,where he has been lead author of the annualDigital News Reportsince 2012. He is also aconsultant on digital media, working actively with news companies on product, audience, andbusiness strategies for digital transition. He has produced a media and journalism predictions Federica Cherubiniis Director of Leadership Development at the Reuters Institute for theStudy of Journalism and an expert on newsroom operations and organisational change, with tenyears’experiencespanningmajorpublishers,researchinstitutesandeditorialnetworksaroundthe world. Federica has authored the annualChanging Newsrooms Report(2020–3) and is Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the 326 news executives from 51 countries and territories who Respondents included 65 editors-in-chief, 63 CEOs or managing directors, and 53 heads ofdigitalorinnovation,andcamefromsomeoftheworld’sleadingtraditionalmediacompanies Survey input and answers helped guide some of the themes in this report and survey data havebeen used throughout. Some direct quotes do not carry names or organisations at the request of The authors are particularly grateful to Richard Fletcher, Director of Research, and the widerteam at the Reuters Institute for their ideas and suggestions, and to a range of other expertsand news executives who generously contributed their time in background interviews (see fulllist at the end of this report). Thanks also go to Alex Reid for her input on the manuscript over Published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism with the support of the Google Executive Summary News organisations are braced for multiple challenges in 2025 that will likely include furtherattacks from hostile politicians, continued economic headwinds, and battles to protectintellectual property in the face of rapacious AI-driven platforms. Changes to search, inparticular, will become a major grievance for a news industry that has already lost social Despitethesedifficultiesmanytraditionalnewsorganisationsremainoptimisticabouttheyearahead – if not about journalism itself. Uncertain times tend to be good for business and the prospectof‘Trumpunleashed’1couldleadtoasurgeinwebtrafficandeveninsubscriptions.But this is by no means guaranteed. One key challenge will be to re-engage audiences that havefallenoutofthehabitofconsumingnewsoverrecentyearsandtofindwaysofattractingthenext generation. Many publishers will be looking to dramatically upscale the quality of their How media leaders view the year ahead Thesearethemainfindingsfromourindustrysurvey,drawnfromastrategicsampleof326 •Just four in ten (41%) of our sample of editors, CEOs, and digital executives say theyareconfidentabouttheprospectsforjournalismintheyearahead,withoneinsix(17%)expressinglowconfidence.Statedconcernsrelatetopoliticalpolarisation,arise •Morepositively,justoverhalf(56%)saytheyareconfidentabouttheirownbusinessprospects,asignificantjumponlastyear’sfigure.Manypublishersexpecttrafficboostsamid the expected chaos of a second Trump presidency, others report continuing growth •Meanwhile, around three-quarters (74%) of our survey respondents say they are worriedaboutapotentialdeclineinreferraltrafficfromsearchenginesthisyear.DatasourcedforthisreportfromanalyticsproviderChartbeatshowsthataggregatetraffictohundredsof AI-generated summaries to important news stories. This comes after big falls in referraltraffictonewssitesfromFacebook(67%)andTwitter(50%)overthelasttwoyears.2 •In response to these trends, publishers will be putting more effort this year into buildingrelationships with AI platforms (+56 net score3) such as ChatGPT and Perplexity, both ofwhich have been courting high-quality content in return for citations and/or money. Withconsumer attention switching to video, more publisher effort is also being planned for •By contrast, publisher sentiment towards X/Twitter (-68 net score) has worsened thisyear following the politicisation of the network under Elon Musk. TheGuardian,DagensNyheter, andLa Vanguardiaare amongst those to have stopped posting on the platform,withBluesky(+38)akeybeneficiary.GoogleDiscover(+27)isbecomingamoreimportant–ifvolatile–trafficsourcethathasbecomecriticaltomanynewsbusinessesoverthelast •On the business side, almost four in ten (36%) of our commercial publishers expectlicensingincomefromtechandAIcompaniestobeasignificantrevenuestream–twice as many as last year. But the amount and structure of any deals remain a point ofcontention. The majority of our survey respondents (72%) said they would prefer to see •More widely, subscription and membership remain the biggest revenue focus (77%) forpublishers, ahead of both display (69%) and native advertising (59%). The majority arenowrelyingonthreeorfourdifferentrevenuestreams,includingevents(4