全球金属与矿业：为什么西芒杜没有影响铁矿石价格？在几内亚的“火车追踪”告诉了我们什么

Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.comAndrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.+212 5 22 86 79 41abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com Price Target RIO.LN 6,200.00 GBp Global Metals & Mining: Why hasn't Simandou hurt iron oreprices? What trainspotting in Guinea taught us We and the investors we talked to last year were worried about the arrival of iron orefrom Simandou (Guinea) starting in November of 2025.At ~120 MT of new supply intoa seaborne market of ~1,700 MT (call it 7%) amidst flat demand, someday the cost curve(marginal mines) have to make room for Simandou, pushing prices into the $90s/t (GlobalMetals & Mining: Six months to Simandou? No...but a shift down in iron ore...reducing targets/ Close Date7 May 2026RIO.LN Close Price (GBp)7,684.00Price Target (GBp)6,200.00Upside/(Downside)(19)%52-Week Range7,834.00/4,110.00EDME1,526.13FYEDecDiv Yield3.9%Market Cap (GBP) (M)132,096EV (GBp) (M)198,376 Iron ore has spent most of the time since north of $100/t. What gives? Did Simandoufail?Was demand stronger than we thought? In this note we investigate the rate of progress at Simandou using a combination of satelliteimages, tanker tracking, and social engineering in Guinea. Our conclusion: First, spot commodity prices reflect current balances. While equitiesdiscount future cash flows, spot commodity prices do not. Given reasonable demand out ofChina combined with China/BHP friction around Jimblebar and a to-date minor volume ofSimandou tons, ~$100/t is reasonable. Further, bulk freight rates have increased by more We expect a more aggressive ramp than consensus (15% above 2028). We observesufficient infrastructure progress (Exhibit 8 and Exhibit 9). We observe sufficient vessels (Exhibit 10-Exhibit 13). Our local trainspotters reported no iron ore deliveries to the port on 5 May (emptywagons), due to an ongoing strike at the WCS’ Block 1 and 2 mine (Exhibit 6). Mining activity was halted, with blasting, loading, hauling and waste dumping suspended.Workers at BWCS downed tools on April 28, as workers seeking pay alignment withemployees on Simandou’s southern blocks 3 and 4, operated by Simfer - a JV betweenChinalco, Rio Tinto and the Guinean state. One BWCS truck driver, employed since 2020, Since the strike doesn’t seem to impact Simfer’s operations, we continue to expectRIO to meet its FY26 sales target of 5 to 10 Mt. Lastly, CTG reportedly operates a fleet of 20 trains, with an operating frequency of 6 to8 trains per day, each capable of transporting c.8Mt of iron ore per train. This implies a~20.4Mtpa capacity, which seems to be in-line with Rio Tinto’s FY26 5-10Mt salestarget from Simandou, assuming Winning consortium is also aiming to achieve similar We would like to thank Abdessamad Raghibi for his assistance in conducting primary research Investment Implications We maintain our Outperform rating on Rio Tinto. We maintain our price target at GBP 62.00 after taking into account Q1 production resultsand exchange rate estimates. We continue to use a 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/ DETAILS WHAT SIMANDOU PROMISED AND WHERE IT IS DELIVERING Simandou is the largest iron ore project currently ramping up globally.The project is structured around two principal JV:(1) Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), which operates blocks 1 and 2, and (2) the Simfer JV, which holds blocks 3 and 4 The Simfer JV is centred on Simfer S.A., owned 15% by the Government of Guinea and 85% by Simfer Jersey Limited.Simfer Jersey Limited is itself a JV between the Rio Tinto Group (53%)and Chalco Iron Ore Holdings (CIOH) (47%).CIOH is a Chinalco-led consortium of Chinese state-owned enterprises, comprising Chinalco (75%), Baowu (20%), China Rail Exhibit 1 shows the project milestones guidance outlined at the 2023 Investor Day. In Q4 2025, Simandou (100% Simfer) produced 2.3 Mt of crushed iron ore using temporary crushing facilities. Productiondeclined to 0.6 Mt in Q1 2026 following fatalities in February 2026, which triggered an independent investigation and the RIO management guides FY26 Simandou sales of 5 to 10Mt,implying that production normalizes in Q2 and resumes ramp-upfrom Q3 onward. Note that Simandou production is recognized at the Simfer mine gate following primary crushing and prior to trainloading.Also, there is a two-to-three-month lag between production and sales, reflecting the time required to rail ore to theMorebaya port, load, ship to China, unload, and complete tertiary crushing prior to final product collection by customers. Assuming FY26 sales largely reflect production from Q4 2025 through Q3 2026 (net of some inventory build),consensus is effectively pricing in ~8Mtof sales, broadly in line with the midpoint of guidance.As such, we see limited EXHIBIT 2:Given the 2-3 month lag between production and sales, FY26 sales are expected to reflect outputproduced in Q4 2025 and Q1–Q3 2026 (minus inventory build). Q4 20