中东能源 - 霍尔木兹波动：从战争溢价到政策顺风

MENA Energy - Hormuz Whiplash: From war premium to policytailwinds MENA Energy trulysits on the Strait of Hormuz fault line-distinguishing operational/logisticsexposurefrom purecommoditybeta-beforesettingouta clean frameworkforwhowinsasthe"warpremium"compressesandwhore-ratesifitre-expands.Importantly,muchoftheconflict-drivenequitydrawdownhasalreadybeenretraced.Policyisnowthedriveragain! +212522867941abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com situationhas shiftedfrom"headline risk"to active interdiction:multiplevessels havereportedbeing fired upon/struck,whileTehran reiteratesthatpassage will remain restricted aslong asthe U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues. The U.S. presence is already biting operationally(CENTCOMhasreported23shipsbeingforcedtoturnbackfromlranianports).Bloomberg'strafficdatareports1OtankerscrossingthestraitonSaturday,slightlyhigherthanthelastsix directly (Adnoc Gas, SABIC and Fertiglobe) or indirectly (Arabian Drilling, ADES & DEWA).Adnoc Gas relies entirely on the Strait for its liquids exports business (1/3 EBITDAcontribution) while Fertiglobe uses the Strait to export its UAE production (35% of its totalproduction capacity).While Adnoc Gas can't leverage otherbypassing routesforits products,Fertiglobe's plants in Egypt (45%) and Algeria (20%) can both replace lost UAE volumes.Indirectly,the overall tensions relatedto war have triggered several offshore rig suspensionswhich have hit both ADES and Arabian Drilling. While there is no explicit disclosure of theexactsuspended rigs'number,weestimate,thatsuspensionsmayconcern 4rigsforArabianDrilling and 6 rigs for ADES, out of their 33 and 11 total operating fleet in Saudi. A credible reopening of Hormuz would rapidly unwind the war-risk premium (Brent fell~9% to about $9o/bbl on the prior"open" headline day), which typically pressures oil-cycleequities and supports downstream/defensive beneficiaries.On the ST,weexpect Adnoc Gasof the war while we'd expect ADES and Arabian Drilling to give back the most over theremainingof2026(cyclicalmultiple/contractawardsentiment;ADESbeta~1.01vsArabianDrilling ~0.64).Fertiglobe should slightly normalize as Urea/Ammonia prices would graduallynormalize, but we'd expect the stock to remain above pre-warlevels on MT markettightness.DEWA would show only a small positive (defensive utility, low beta ~0.44) as it will mainly relyonDubai'srecoveryoverthenext18months. A“new Middle East"for MENA Energyis a more investable one:the crisisis acceleratinginstitutionalbackstops(state supportformaritime security/insurance)and redundancybuild-Gas and Fertiglobe are structural winners on reliability (flows normalizefaster as logisticsframeworks mature),SABIC benefits from steadier feedstock/shipping economics, ADES/DEWAwinsviaa calmermacro/ratesbackdropas energyshockvolatilityfades. Adnoc Gas-Outperform (PT=AED4.08).Fertiglobe -Outperform (PT=AED3.66).·Arabia Drilling -Outperform (PT= SAR109.30)ADES-Outperform(PT=SAR22.24).DEWA-Outperform (PT = AED3.36)..SABIC - Market-Perform (PT= SAR67.80). EXHIBIT 5:Adnoc Gas and ArabianDrilling are lagging the"war recover",1Q26 remains the catalyst forArabianDrillingwhileHormuz'sopeningwilldriveADGAS, still significantlybelow normal levels. EXHIBIT 7: Iran's game in the Strait:Keep markets nervous. Keep leverage high.Extract concessions withoutcommitting. ST rallyhasn't still unfold yet but the full reopening of the Strait will trigger normalization. 22-25%with news about operators recalling rigs over the past few days. EXHIBIT12:Adnoc Gas'exportsbsuiness are highly correlated to the oil price.We expect once exports resumed,liquids will be sold at higher realized prices. thebackofhigherliquidspriceand MTvolume/LNGgrowthcatalyst. References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between BernsteinandSocieteGenerale otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. We value Adnoc Gas on a SOTP basis to better reflect the structurally different risk i.e., growth and cash-flow profiles. Our PTAED4.08reflects a DCF-basedWACC of 9.8%and an EV/EBITDAmultiple of 1Ox fortheLNG business. OurEV/EBITDAvaluation (SAR22.24)targetstands at8x,32%discountto the sector LTaverage and 27%premium to the sectorNTM EV/EBITDA. Arabian Drilling Equally-weighted PTderivedfrom our DCF (SAR119.64)and EV/EBITDAmultiple of 7.0x (SAR99.08) giving us a TP of SAR109.3. Fertiglobe We rate Fertiglobe at Outperform on a DCF-based valuation (WACC: 8.7%; growth: 0%; FCF to perpetuity: $648m) yielding aAED3.66PT. Saudi