TheRoleofBiofuelsandBiomassFeedstocksforDecarbonizingtheU.S.Economyby2050 DECARB:DecarbonizingEnergyThroughCollaborativeAnalysisofRoutesandBenefits TheRoleofBiofuelsandBiomassFeedstocksforDecarbonizingtheU.S.Economyby2050 DECARB:DecarbonizingEnergyThrough CollaborativeAnalysisofRoutesandBenefits TroyR.Hawkins,1LingTao,2MatthewBinsted,3PralhadBurli,4JohnField,5UdayanSingh,1RussellHorowitz,3DorisOke,1ArpitBhatt,2DamonHartley,4SaurajyotiKar,1YingqianLin,4RajivPaudel,4OokieMa6 1ArgonneNationalLaboratory 2NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory 3PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory 4IdahoNationalLaboratory 5OakRidgeNationalLaboratory 6U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(currentlywithEnergetics) SuggestedCitation Hawkins,TroyR.,LingTao,MatthewBinstedetal.2024.TheRoleofBiofuelsandBiomassFeedstocksforDecarbonizingtheU.S.Economyby2050.Golden,CO:NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory.NREL/TP-5100-87279,ANL-23/56,PNNL-34336,INL/RPT-23-74427, 1, ORNL/SPR-2023/3134.https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/87279.pdf. 1 NOTICE ThisworkwasauthoredinpartbyArgonneNationalLaboratory,theNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory,IdahoNationalLaboratory,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,andtheStrategicAnalysisOffice,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy,U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE).FundingprovidedbytheDOEOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy’sStrategicAnalysisTeam.TheviewsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheDOEortheU.S.Government. ArgonneNationalLaboratory,managedbyUChicagoArgonne,LLCfortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC02-06CH11357 NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,operatedbyAllianceforSustainableEnergy,LLC,fortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC36-08GO28308 PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory,operatedbyBattelleforthe U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC05-76RL01830 IdahoNationalLaboratory,operatedbyBattellefortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)undercontractNo.DE-AC07-05ID14517 OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,managedbyUT-BattelleLLCforthe U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC05-00OR22725 ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)atwww.nrel.gov/publications. U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)reportsproducedafter1991andagrowingnumberofpre-1991documentsareavailable freeviawww.OSTI.gov. CoverPhotosbyGettyImages:(toptobottom)1335490775,1390829035,1367609573,959984198. NRELprintsonpaperthatcontainsrecycledcontent. Preface DECARB(DecarbonizingEnergythroughCollaborativeAnalysisofRoutesandBenefits)isacross-cutting,multi-yearprogramoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy(EERE)todevelopandinformstrategiesforachievingU.S.economywidedecarbonization.DECARB’svitalworkoccursatatimewhenrecognitionofanever-escalatingclimatecrisishasneverbeengreater,andwhentheglobalimperativetodecarbonizeenergysystemshasledtounprecedentedlevelsofactionandinvestment. Informingthetransitiontoanequitablenet-zerogreenhousegasemissionseconomyrequiresintegratedanalysisacrossallenergysupplyanddemandsectors;considerationofawiderangeofenergyinfrastructure,enduses,andconsumers;andimpactsonairquality,affordability,equity,andotherrelevantmetrics.Tothisend,DECARBisapplyingasuiteofbest-in-class,DOE-fundedanalyticaltoolsandleveragingexpertisefromEEREandnationallaboratoriestoanswercriticalquestionsaboutpotentialdecarbonizationpathways.Concurrently,theprogramiscontinuallydevelopingnewanalyticalcapabilitiesandengagingstakeholderstoenablebetterandmorerefinedinsightsovertime.DECARB’sresultswillinformEEREstrategiesandR&Dinvestments;guideinfrastructuredeploymentandpolicydesignandimplementation;andfurtherenhanceDOE’sanalyticalcapabilitiesandproductstohelpbringaboutanequitablenet-zero U.S.economyby2050. UnderDECARB,EEREiscollaboratingwithaconsortiumofNationalLaboratoriesincludingArgonneNationalLaboratory(ANL),LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory(LBNL),NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),OakRidgeNationalLaboratory(ORNL),andPacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory(PNNL)toaddressseveralkeygoals: -StandardizinganalyticalapproachesandadvancingsharedunderstandingofpotentialenergysystemfuturesandtransitionpathwaystoguideEEREactivities,strategies,andoutreach. -Executingmulti-yearworkflowsacrossseveralNationalLabstoenableEEREtoidentifyandquantifythecross-sectoralrelationshipsimpactingnet-zeroenergyfutures. -Developingnewanalyticalcapabilitiesandproductstohelpfederal,state,local,andprivatesectorstakeholdersmakeinformeddecisionsrelatedtotheenergytransition. -Engagingexternalstakeholderstoincorporatediverseviewpointsanddisseminatefindingsandbestpractices. Respondingappropriatelytotheclimatecrisiswillrequiretherapidtransformationofmanycomplexenergysystemsthatarecloselyintertwinedwithoureconomyandwayoflife.Bysharingimportantinsightsabouthowthistransitioncanbeaccomplishedwiththegreatestoverallbenefit,DECARBaimstohelpsocietycapitalizeonthevastopportunitiesthiscrisispresents:astrongereconomywithmillionsofstable,good-payingjobs;affordableandreliableenergyaccessforall;cleanerwater