2026年上半年全球基金银行业展望报告

Global Fund Banking Outlook ReportH1 2026 Introduction Near-Peak Activity, Uneven Confidence Near-record investment levels in private markets have generated bullishheadlines. But based on our Global Fund Banking survey data from more than200 private fund CFOs and COOs, plus insights from hundreds ofconversations with market participants our team has had over the past fewmonths, it’s clear that not everybody in the industry shares the sameenthusiasm. And yet, fundraising sentiment tells a more cautious story.Despite strongerdeployment and improving exit numbers, we’ve seen softening in thefundraising outlook—particularly in venture capital (VC). The lagged effects ofseveralyears ofconstrained exit markets continue to weigh on limited partner(LP) allocation pacing, extending fundraising timelines even as headlineinvestment activity has ramped up. On the positive side, an uptick in buyout deals and mega AI deals has pushedup investment numbers. At SVB, as investment activity and deploymentaccelerate, we’ve seen an increase in capital call line usage.Borrowing levelsamong early-stage venture and buyout funds have returned to pre-correction norms.Our survey sheds light on the drivers behind these trends. Taken together, I see these trends as a reflection of mixed sentiment in themarket.While the way things play out in 2026 is uncertain, we remainconfident in the private markets’ resilience. We produce this report to support your success and that of the broader privatemarket ecosystem, and owe a debt of gratitude to the many clients andindustry experts who lent their insights to this edition. Echoing their generousspirit, I welcome you to share these insights with your colleagues andnetworks. We’re also seeing improved conditions in exit markets, as IPO and M&Avolumes have rebounded somewhat following a prolonged and difficult period.During the exit doldrums, managers have actively pursued alternativepathways to liquidity.This is especially true among private equity (PE) funds.Increased use of liquidity vehicles has helped bridge the gap created by theslower reopening of traditional exit channels. Jesse HurleyHead of Global Fund Banking Perspectives on Private Markets Are LP PortfoliosToo Big? DPI: Today’s BiggestConstraint Timing Mattersfor Distributions Importance ofPrivate Markets “If a GP doesn’t sell or distributetheir shares after an exit, it isnot a liquidity event for the LP.When the market is down, GPsmay be reluctant to crystallizepotential losses (especiallyholdings with high entryvaluations). This creates anoverhang of undistributed publicpositions and can delaydistributions to LPs.” “LPs are managing increasinglylarge GP rosters while their timeand attention remain finite. Asmultiple managers return tomarket at the same time, LPs arebecoming selective about therelationships they prioritize,which could lead to some rosterconsolidation.” “LPs realize that the world ischanging dramatically with AI.Companies are staying privatelonger, and you can’t captureas much value in publicmarkets. LPs are taking someof what they would allocateto publics and moving it tothe private side, even withallocation and DPI issues.” “The biggest constraint for alot of funds today is a lack ofdistributions. While LPs mayreally like what a fund is doing,they may not have liquidity tocommit to the next fund.” Sam BendixPartner Brittany HargestPartner Angela SibleyPartner Ann Lee SteinbergPartner and COO Contents 05Macro07Fundraising12LP Trends15Fund Finance20Exits23Spotlight: Operating Best Practices26Appendix “LPs are prioritizing specialist platforms.Funds should have a true sourcingadvantage and, most importantly, a valuecreation path.” Sam BendixPartner, Chicago Pacific Founders Page 13 Macro Private markets dashboard Private Markets Dashboard US-based firms, by date closed ($B)1 Fundraising Sentiment falls despite fundraising stabilizing Non-Flagship FundsGaining Share Trailing 12-month US funds closed and fundraising by fund type and date closed Across fund types, the trend was largely the same as lastyear: slightly more dollars raised yet fewer funds closed.Bifurcation among funds continued, with the top fivefunds accounting for anywhere from one-quarter to one-third of all fundraising dollars in 2025, depending on thefund type. On the other end of the spectrum, at least forVC, smaller funds (defined here as sub-$150M) held theirshare of capital steady at approximately 20%. What has changed are the types of fund vehicles firms areraising. When surveyed on last year’s sources offundraising capital, only 19% of respondents raisedcapital solely for a flagship fund.Said differently, about80% of all respondents raised capital from a non-flagship fund at some point in 2025.Among the optionsprovided, co-investment funds and special purposevehicles (SPVs) were the top choices. Non-Flagship Fundraising Trends UpShare of non-flagship global fundraising for VC and PE by year Flagship and Co-In