全球汽车：2026年2月电动汽车追踪报告：石油驱动复苏前的纯电动汽车最终疲软？

EV trackerFeb-26: final BEV weaknessahead of oildriven recovery? Industry Overview 09 April 2026 BEV sales fell -15% y/y in Feb26, penetration at 11.8%Global BEV sales declined‑15% y/y (-13% m/m; -8% YTD) in Feb‑26 to 713k units, as growth slowed in China and the US, while European sales growth remained resilient. InEurope, BEV sales grew +20% y/y (+19% YTD), supported by continued emissionregulation targets, subsidies, and tax breaks. However, sales in China and the USdeclined by‑40% y/y (-29% YTD) and‑33% y/y (-32% YTD), respectively, following areduction in subsidies in both regions. In China, seasonal effects from the Lunar NewYear, alongside reduced purchase tax incentives, contributed to the decline and a slightdrop in BEV penetration to 21.6%. In the US, the weakness is less apparent on asequential basis as we reach a new post subsidy run rate (-2%)PHEVsfollowed a similarpattern, with Europe up +36% y/y, contrasted by steep declines in the US (‑53%) andChina (‑41%). Looking ahead, we maintain our BEV sales forecasts (Exhibit 6) despiteweaker YTD BEV sales in China & the US. We think the Middle East conflict andassociated high fuel prices will drive BEV sales higher already as of Q2 26e. Accordingly,we still expect global BEV sales to grow by 11% y/y in FY26e, with penetration at 17.5%(YTD penetration at c.12% globally), which is still below S&P’s 19% penetration forecast.By OEM:Tesla recovers, Chinese OEMs look abroad EquityGlobalAutos/Car Manufacturers Horst Schneider>>Research AnalystBofA Europe (Frankfurt)+49 69 5899 5080horst.schneider@bofa.com Camille Obeid>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 9038camille.obeid@bofa.com Stephen Benhamou>>Research AnalystBofASE (France)33 1 8770 0293stephen.benhamou@bofa.com Ming Hsun Lee,CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)minghsun.lee@bofa.com Details by OEM (Exhibit 2& 3):(1)Tesla: models are back on top of leaderboardsacross regions. The company gained m/s in Feb as sales rebounded from a very low baseand entry‑level models ramp up globally. Also, Tesla already reported 1Q26 sales growthof +6.5% y/y, pointing to a continued recovery as new lower‑priced variants scale.(2)EU OEMs:On a YTD basis, STLA & VW delivered strong performance, with STLAgaining +170bps to 4.3% and VW +70bps to 7.5% m/s vs FY25. Globally, VW moved backahead of Geely to rank third in global m/s.(3) Chinese OEMs:BEV sales declined‑40%in Feb (YTD:‑29%) in China, leading to global m/s losses, notably at Xiaomi (‑200bps) &BYD (‑140bps). As a result, Chinese OEMs increased their focus on exports, whichaccounted for c.46% of BEV sales in February (c.41% YTD), driven by South America andthe EU. In Europe, Chinese OEM sales grew +7.9% m/m despite fewer selling days, ledby Leapmotor (+100%) & Xpeng (+24%).(4) Korean OEMs:Kia & Hyundai benefitedfrom Chinese OEM weakness, gaining +170bps and +160bps in m/s m/m, respectively.Other: more incentives, more demand, more competition Alexander PerryResearch AnalystBofASaperry3@bofa.com Shiro Sakamaki>>ResearchAnalystBofAS Japanshiro.sakamaki@bofa.com KJ Hwang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)kj.hwang@bofa.com Gunjan Prithyani>>Research AnalystBofAS Indiagunjan.prithyani@bofa.com 1)EUEV price rebates:incentives rose in Apr-26 vs 1Q26 (Exhibit 28). VW models sawthe biggest rise. With rising BEV demand due to high oil prices, we think that these pricerebates might drop again. But this shows that the competition in Europe is fierce asChinese OEMs enter the market.2) Raw material pricesfor BEV production are largelyunaffected from the Iran conflict for the moment. This further supports a BEV shift amidrising oil prices.3) Model launches:as the Beijing Auto Show approaches OEMs rampup model launches: BYD unveiled its 2ndgen battery with charging speeds matchingpetrol refuelling while VW plans to unveil 4 new“in China for China”models acrossdifferent segments. Competition is not slated to ease…which is a negative for pricing Jargon buster (B)EV = (Battery) electric vehiclePHEV = plug-in hybrid EVICE = Internal combustion enginexEV = NEV = PHEVs and BEVsOEM = original equipment manufacturerLV(S) = light vehicle (sales)M/S = market shareBYD = Build Your DreamMBG = Mercedes Benz GroupNEV =New Energy VehicleYTD= Year To DateSTLA = StellantisVW = Volkswagen Most important BEV newsflow last month Exhibit1:Headlines that caught our eyes recentlySummary of the most relevant news flow on BEVs • The US Department of Transportation revised National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) guidance in late 2025, seeking to ease permitting and accelerate fund deployment. This brieflyboosted industry sentiment. However, the FY2026 appropriations law redirected more than $875 million from federal EV charging programs. Most of NEVI’s roughly $3.5 billion remainsavailable, but only about 13% had been obligated. This leaves a large share of funding exposed to future potential rescissions.Source: BloombergBYD Unveils 2nd Generation Blade Battery and