地缘政治与全球贸易格局：2026年更新——关税冲击、人工智能浪潮及重塑全球贸易的涟漪效应

Tariff splashes, AI waves, and the ripples reshaping global trade AuthorsTiago DevesaJeongmin SeongOlivia WhiteNick LeungCamillo LamannaJoaquín Rebled March 2026 Confidential and proprietary. Any use ofthis material without specific permission ofMcKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990. Our mission is to provide a fact base toaid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the world’s companiesand policy leaders. We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’s regional, sectoral, and functionalknowledge, skills, and expertise, but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibility ofMGI directors and partners. Our research is currently grouped into five major themes: —Productivity and prosperity: Creating and harnessing the world’s assets most productively—Resources of the world: Building, powering, and feeding the world sustainably—Human potential: Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent—Global connections: Exploring how flows of goods, services, people, capital, and ideasshape economies—Technologies and markets of the future: Discussing the next big arenas of value and competition We aim for independent and fact-based research. None of our work is commissioned or funded byany business, government, or other institution; we share our results publicly free of charge; and weare entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey. While we engage multiple distinguished externaladvisers to contribute to our work, the analyses presented in our publications are MGI’s alone, andany errors are our own. You can find out more about MGI and our research atwww.mckinsey.com/mgi. MGI partners MGI directors Shubham Singhal (chair)Chris BradleyTanguy CatlinKweilin EllingrudSylvain JohanssonNick LeungOlivia White Arvind GovindarajanMekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan MischkeJeongmin Seong Contents At a glance3 CHAPTER 1The new world of global trade5 CHAPTER 2United States: AI and tariffs reshape trade21 CHAPTER 3China: Finding new export markets28 CHAPTER 4The EU: Searching for growth amid a US–China squeeze34 CHAPTER 5Emerging economies: Finding opportunity across the geopolitical spectrum41 Acknowledgments53Endnotes54 At a glance —Trade in 2025 did not retrench, despite dire predictions.Both US imports and Chinese exportsreached new highs. Southeast Asia deepened its role in global manufacturing, India gained groundin selected sectors, and Brazil expanded commodity exports to China. All told, trade grew faster thanthe global economy, while advanced economies and China reoriented away from geopolitically distanttrading partners. —AI-related trade emerged as the most substantial engine of growth.Exports of semiconductorsand data center equipment accounted for one-third of global trade growth as Asian hubs—Taiwan,South Korea, and parts of Southeast Asia—supplied markets around the world, particularly theUnited States. —China expanded its role as a “factory to the factories.”Increasing shipments to fast-growingemerging economies, it ramped up exports of industrial components and capital goods, supplying theessential machinery and parts needed to power advanced manufacturing hubs worldwide. —Tariffs triggered trade readjustment, with US–China trade falling by around 30 percent.TheUnited States replaced about two-thirds of the gap with imports from other sellers, while Chineseexporters of consumer goods from electric cars to toys cut prices by an average of 8 percent to findbuyers in new markets. ASEAN thrived, increasing trade with both economies, but the European Unionfaced a double squeeze: more Chinese imports and higher US tariffs. —Shifts in trade point to some durable trends—and a need for resilience to shocks.AI, emergingmarket growth, and China’s evolving manufacturing focus are not flashes in the pan, nor is the growingrole of geopolitics in reshaping trade—a shift that’s been apparent in the data for nearly a decade.Short-term developments require responses, too. Tariff shifts in 2025 were abrupt—and 2026 hasalready delivered its own jolts. Companies need long-term thinking coupled with agility. Trade in advanced manufactured goods—especially AI—grew fastest. Change in global trade by sector,2024–25 (annualized), % McKinsey & Company Introduction The past year was the most tumultuousin memory for global trade, even beyond the splash from tariffannouncements. Longstanding alignments came under strain, and trade relationships were reassessed—not just among geopolitically distant partners, but among historic allies. Yet trade increasingly movedtoward more closely aligned economies, while continuing to grow in step with global output. Building on three years of McKinsey Global Institute research documenting the emerging realignmentof trade along geopolitical lines, this report examines how these dynamics evolved in 2025. It traces theway tariffs rippled through the netwo