全球金属与矿业：伯恩斯坦矿业估值手册：当前乱象中哪些定价错误？三大思路

Bernstein Mining Valuation Book: What's mispriced in the currentchaos? Three ideas Commodity selection is arguably the most important factor driving returns in metals & miningland. We believe that valuation is a close second. In this note, we refresh our Mining ValuationBook and update our valuation tools to assess ten stocks within our coverage universe,alongwith their peers. Finally, we offer ideas on VALE, ABX and GLEN. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com The Mining sector has outperformed the broad market year-to-date, driven by bothEBITDA revision and multiple expansion (Exhibit 10). Central to EBITDA revision and multiple expansion is the belief that commodityprices would stay high for longer.We argue that this is justified for certain preciousmetals, like gold and silver, but not for other commodities. Industrial commodities aretypically governed by cycles because high prices might translate to demand destructionand also incentivize more projects and enable uneconomic (C&M) operations to startproducing again. Further, exchange inventories have surged - copper has tripled andaluminium has nearly doubled over the past nine months (Exhibit 2). On a 3-month basis, mining equities have run ahead of their underlying commodities(Exhibit 11).On a 1 week basis, however, the recent sharp sentiment reversal makes themappear undervalued. For iron ore equities, stock valuations are above the 5-year and 10-year averages(Exhibit 58 - Exhibit 59), but iron ore margins are still at their LT mid-cycle (Exhibit49).However, VALE (Market-Perform) has risen by 20% in the past 3 months despiteiron ore declining by 6%. We argue thatVALE has benefited from inflows to emergingmarkets, which are harder to forecast, and appears overvalued at current price (1stidea). For gold equities, ABX (Outperform) is cheaper than NEM (Outperform) - 2ndidea.ABX is expected to achieve a higher EBITDA margin and has higher production growth overthe next four years, yet it is trading at a 1.4x lower multiple than NEM (Exhibit 75). Third idea, the ongoing war in Iran has lifted thermal coal by c.14% ($16/t) as LNGprice rises.GLEN is expected to produce c.100Mtof thermal coal in FY27, which impliesc.$1.6bln in incremental FCF (c.2% market cap). A prolonged war would lift LNG pricesfurther which will pull coal prices with it as coal once again becomes marginal electron. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedFCX, NEM estimate is Reported EPS; FCX, NEM valuation is Reported P/E (x); BOL.SS, FCX, GLEN.LN, VALE, VALE3.BZ base year is 2024;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain our Outperform ratings on Barrick, Newmont and Rio Tinto, and our Market-Perform ratings on Anglo American,Antofagasta, BHP, Boliden, Freeport, Glencore, and Vale. We also update our company models to incorporate the latest FY25 financial results, and FX changes. AAL (Market-Perform) We maintain our price target at GBP 24.00 after incorporating the latest financial results, our latest commodity and exchangerates estimates. We use an unchanged 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x against our forward2027 EBITDA estimate. ANTO (Market-Perform) We are raising our price target from GBP 25.00 to GBP 25.50 to reflect the latest financial results, our latest commodity andexchange rates estimates. We also raise our EV/EBITDA multiple from 7.5x to 8.0x to align our valuation closer to market. We use an unchanged 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. BHP (Market-Perform) We are trimming our price target from GBP 18.50 to GBP 18.00 after taking into account the latest 1H26 financial results, ourlatest commodity and exchange rates estimates. We continue to use a 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multipleof 6.0x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. RIO (Outperform) We are trimming our price target from GBP 61.00 to GBP 58.00 to reflect the latest FY25 financial results, our latest commodityand exchange rates estimates. We use an unchanged 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x againstour forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. DETAILS MINING STOCKS AREN'T CHEAP, BUT... Commodity prices have risen sharply since Q4 2025, though sentiment has recently softened due to the war in Iran.This price rally has been accompanied by multiple expansion across most mining names, driving a rapid increase in miningequities. What is already priced in, and is the rally in mining stocks sustainable? We recently investigated the relationship between stock exchanges inventory and copper prices (Global Metals & Mining: Ashort primer on copper exchanges and their link to copper price) and find that the levels of stock relative