中国电动汽车和电池：油价上涨电动化胜出

China EV and battery Higher oil price,electrificationwins China ◆Higher oil price strengthens EV/ESS economics, supportingfaster electrification and value in battery and storage Yuqian Ding*Head of China Autos ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk ◆China best positioned to capture shifting global demand,backed by technology, cost and system advantages Elaine Chen* (Reg. No. S1700524030001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedelaine.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 010 5795 2364 BYD,GeelyandCATLare core beneficiaries Li Yang*Analyst, China AutosThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedli01.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 6216 Oil price spikeisa clear tailwind for EV adoption and storage, even if demandresponseisnotinstantaneous.Risingoil pricescouldfurther improve EV total costof ownership vs ICE, while also raisingthe value ofelectrificationand energy storagesolutions more broadly. While consumers and fleets might respondwitha lag, and Brian Yu*Associate, China Auto ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 28227281 China EV and battery champions best placed to capture shifting global demand * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Chinapassengerauto exportsremainvery strong, up29% in 2025,with EV nowrepresenting46% ofthemix and the majority of the growth (EV up68% yoy).In thefirst two months of 2026,EV exportsremainedrobustat+208% yoy. In our view, thismatters more in a worldof high oil pricesbecause China is not only the globaltechnology, scale and cost leader but also increasingly the most complete systemsolutionproviderglobally acrossvehicle, batteries, charging and storage. BYD’s latestflash-charging andstorage-buffered flash chargercould be rolled outin Europe thissummer. That makes BYD especiallyrelevantin overseas markets where charging BYD, Geely and CATLcore beneficiaries:BYD Jan/Feb overseasmixwasc50%,with thecompany targeting 1.5m unitsfor overseas marketsin 2026e(+43% yoy).BYD hasthe biggest EVglobalexposure,with a leading combination of overseasEVscale, localizationpresenceand commitment,andbattery/charging/energyinfrastructure optionality. Geely israpidlyramping up its overseasexposure andtargeting640k-750kunitsin 2026e(53-79% yoy) from overseasmarkets. Its strong HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. China EV and battery dominance in a nutshell Source: CPCA, HSBC Exhibit8.China EV battery makerscontributedmore than 70% of global EVbattery supply in 2025; CATL took 39% Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarilyresponsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyother Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take sixto 12months for the market price to reflect this.When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stockwillbe classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy oraHold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it isbetween Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, changein target price or estimates). Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price. Prior to this date, HSBC’s rating structure was applied on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity f