2026年2月金融市场趋势

▣Treasury bond yields declined substantially after mid-February,reflectingperceptions that the previous rise in yields had beenexcessiveand stronger expectations of interest rate cuts by theUSFederal Reserve.In March,however,yields rose sharplyamidconcerns about a prolonged situation in the Middle Eastandrisingoil prices. ▣The KOSPI sustained strong gains on expectations of improvedearningsin key industries and optimism about governmentpolicies.However,the index fell sharply in March as risk-offsentimentstrengthened amid instabilityintheMiddle East. ▣Bank lending to households declined for the third consecutivemonthinFebruary(-1.1trillionwoninJanuary2026→-0.3 trillionwoninFebruary).Meanwhile,banklendingtothecorporatesectorgrewbyasignificantlylargerextentinFebruarythaninthemonthbefore(+5.7trillionwon→+9.6trillionwon). ▣Deposit-taking by banks shifted to a sharp increase in February(-50.8trillion won in Janaury 2026→+47.3 trillion won in February2026),andfundsundermanagementatassetmanagementcompaniescontinued to increase significantly(+91.9 trillion won→+48.6trillionwon). 1InterestRatesandStockPrices □Treasury bond yields declined substantially after mid-February,reflectingperceptions that the previous rise in yields had beenexcessiveand stronger expectations of interest rate cuts by theUSFederal Reserve.In March,however,yields rose sharplyamidconcerns about a prolonged situation in the Middle Eastandrisingoilprices. □Major short-term market interest rates(3-month)increased,drivenby changes in monetary policy expectations and supplypressuresstemming fromthe issuanceof Treasurybills. □The KOSPI sustained strong gains*onexpectations of improvedearningsin key industries and optimism about governmentpolicies.However,the index fell sharply in March as risk-offsentimentstrengthenedamid instabilityintheMiddle East. *The KOSPI exceeded 6,000 on February 25 and reached a new peak fortheyear(6,307)onFebruary26. 2HouseholdLoans □Bank lending to households declined for the third consecutivemonthinFebruary,although the pace of decline slowed(-1.1trillionwonin January 2026→-0.3 trillion won in February;+3.2 trillion won inFebruary2025). oHomemortgageloansturnedtoanincrease(-0.6trillion won→+0.4trillionwon),reflecting a year-end rise in housing transactions andmovingdemandassociatedwiththestartofthenewschoolyear. ※Changes in leasehold deposit loans(trillion won):-0.8 in Dec.2025→-0.3inJan.2026→-0.2inFeb.(+1.2inFeb.2025) oOther loans continued to decline(-0.4trillion won→-0.7 trillionwon),partly reflecting inflows of bonuses for the New Year’sholidaysas well as performance-based bonuses.However,thedeclinewaslimitedduetodemandforloansrelatedtodomesticandoverseasstockinvestment. 3CorporateFunding □BanklendingtothecorporatesectorgrewbyasignificantlylargerextentinFebruarythaninthemonthbefore(+5.7 trillionwonin January 2026→+9.6trillionwoninFebruary2026;+3.5trillionwoninFebruary2025). oBanklendingtolargecorporationsrosesubstantially(+3.4trillionwon→+5.2 trillion won),reflecting banks’strategies to expand lendingcombinedwith demand for working capital,including funds to beusedforholidays. oBank lending to small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)exhibitedhigher growth(+2.3 trillion won→+4.3 trillion won),led bybanks’expandedlendingoperations,strenghenedeffortsininclusivefinance,anddemandforfundsfortheLunarNewYearholidays. □Corporate bonds sawasignificantnet redemption(-2.0 trillionwon→-4.1trillion won),affected by issuance burdens stemming fromheightenedinterest rate volatility,and weakened investor demandamidalargevolumeofmaturingbonds. oCPandshort-termbondsshiftedtonetredemption(+10.1trillionwon→-0.1 trillionwon),partlyreflectingtherepaymentofshort-termdebtbysomepublicenterprises. 4FlowofFunds □Deposit-taking by banks shifted to a sharp increase in February(-50.8trillion won in Janaury 2026→+47.3 trillion won in February 2026;+24.8trillion woninFebruary2025),ledbytransferabledeposits. oTransferable deposits increased sharply(-49.7 trillion won→+39.6trillionwon),driven by inflows of corporate funds for settlementandof fiscalfundsfromlocal governments.oTime deposits turned to an increase(-1.0trillion won→+10.7 trillionwon),as inflows of excess corporate funds and temporary inflowsofoperational funds from local governments offset a slight outflowofhouseholdfunds. □Fundsundermanagementatassetmanagementcompaniescontinuedto increase significantly(+91.9trillion won in January 2026→+48.6 trillion won in February 2026;+39.3 trillion won in February2025),drivenby stock-type funds. oStock-type funds(+37.0trillion won→+34.1 trillion won)andotherfunds(+16.2trillion won→+7.6 trillion won)continuedto post largeincreases,while bond-type funds turned to a slight decrease(+4.2trillionwon→-0.2trillionwon). oMMFs saw a slowdown in inflows(+33.0trillion won→+5.5 trillionwon),mainly reflecting reduced inflows of corporate bonds amidadeclineintheir yieldattractiveness. HouseholdLoans and Corporate Funding (changesduring perio