2026年OFC展会前瞻：人工智能正推动全规模光通信超级周期

OFC 2026 Preview: AI is catalyzing a scale-across optical super-cycle Industry Overview 2026 reflects sustained demand for Optical TransportAhead of the 2026 OFC conference, we outline below our growth expectations for the 06 March 2026 optical transport market, upcoming spending cycle forscale-across and data centerinterconnect buildouts, and highlight Ciena and Cisco as key beneficiaries. We recentlyturned the dial more cautiously on spending, following a strong 2025 cycle. We nowrealize we were too early to call a slowdown, with three drivers fueling the current supercycle: requirement for additional bandwidth in existing non-AI data centers (seeMicrosoft front-end purchases from Arista), massive new data center buildout activityslated for 2026-2028, and lastly, new scale-across architectures that result in newdemand for optical interconnect. We therefore expect the total optical transport marketto grow over 10% in 2026 and 2027, with ZR/ZR+ pluggables growing 30% per annumon average. We see elevated demand across most optical categories, like convergedsystems, disaggregated line systems, as well as long reach and short reach pluggables. EquityGlobalTelecom Equipment Tal LianiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5107tal.liani@bofa.com Tomer ZilbermanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3203tomer.zilberman@bofa.com Kevin NiederpruemResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855-1540kevin.niederpruem@bofa.com Ciena and Cisco both poised to benefit from optical cycle Entering 2026, we published acautious note on spending growth deceleration and therisk of backlog and deferred revenue slowdown. After doing detailed analysis on theexpected data center buildout, as well as following the recent spending outlook updateby the Cloud Titans, we now believe our call was too early. The optical market is stillcyclical, but Cloud spending remains robust, with key Cloud players, includingHyperscalers, Tier-2 Clouds and Neoclouds, adding significant data center capacity in thenext three years. We expect Cloud providers to collectively add multiple gigawatts (GWs)of DC capacity between 2026-2028, with each 1GW estimated at a total of $55bn ofequipment. We recently upgraded Ciena to a Buy rating (see link to report) and believethat Ciena and Cisco are both positioned to capture a significant share of AI-driveninterconnect spending as networks catch up to compute. Eden VacnichResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1971eden.vacnich@bofa.com Glossary •DCI = Data Center Interconnect•DCOM = Data Center Out-of-bandManagement•DSP = Digital Signal Processor•GW = Gigawatt•IMDD = Intensity Modulation DirectDetection Scale-across expands the network across sites One of the key growth drivers is thescale-across architecture evolution. Scale-acrossextends AI fabrics, linking different data centers through high-capacity interconnect andenabling more flexible workload placement across multiple data center facilities. Inpractice, this drives demand for high-bandwidth optical connectivity, as well asorchestration software. Spending on scale-across AI fabrics is projected to surge, withGartner projecting 11x growth in 2026 (Exhibit 7). We expect 800G ZR/ZR+ pluggablesrevenue to grow ~10x in tandem, from about $65mn in 2025 to ~$700mn in 2026,driving this segment to grow from 5% of the ZR/ZR+ market in 2025 to 35% in 2026(Exhibit 2). Scale across adoption is in its early stages, and market projections will likelybe revised upward as the deployments accelerate, driving significant growth for opticaltransport vendors. Pluggables driving the scale-across cyclePluggables transform optical connectivity The adoption of pluggables represents a structural shift toward disaggregated optical networks. While Telcos buy aggregated optical systems that handle both the trafficengineering and the optical or signal manipulation aspects, Cloud customers chose adifferent path, separately buying line systems, which handle tasks like aggregation,prioritization and other management tasks, versus buying separate optical solutions, ortransceivers, that only handle the mechanics of manipulating the signal in order to sendthe laser beam from one place to another. These ZR/ZR+ modules, or pluggables, plugdirectly into routers and switches, having a variety of distance capabilities. ZR opticstarget short spans (up to ~120 km), while ZR+ extends reach to metro and long-haulroutes, often exceeding 1,000 km with advanced signal integrity over long distances andmodulation techniques. This combination of lower cost, reduced power, and simplifiedarchitecture has made pluggables the preferred solution for data center interconnect(DCI) for hyperscalers scaling AI clusters across multiple sites. 2025 marked an inflection point for optical pluggablesCiena and Cisco specialize in high end modulation for the optical systems, dubbed Coherent optical, while other vendors focus more on simpler solutions dubbed IMDD. Atthe risk of over-simplifying, for distances up to 10 meters, copper solutions