全球存储技术周报：中东危机影响小、2月销售超预期及龙仁与P5工厂对比

Weekly theme: low impact of Middle Eastcrisis, Feb sales surprise, Yongin fab vs P5 Industry Overview Memory chipmakers said low impact of Middle East crisis We discussed the impact of Middle East (ME) conflict with 10+ memory chipmakers andsupply chain companies this week. All of them alluded to low impact or almost zerodisruptionso far. In fact, they said DRAM and NAND demand remains very strong, farexceeding current production volume. We also learned about more active negotiations onLTA, fixing multiple years’ASP. Memory chips are mostly fabricated in Asia (95%+ ofglobal total) using very localized materials (e.g., Japan; helium inventories still high).Equipment comes from Asia/US/Europe without using the Strait of Hormuz (e.g., air cargocommonly used). Memory chip distribution is also Asia-centric, particularly for NVIDIA’s AIserver (e.g., Korea’s HBM goes to Taiwan’s packaging/ODM companies). Of course,chipmakers are worried about macro risk (i.e., potentially weaker IT/server demand if theME crisis lasts long term). That said, memory chipmakers seem to be more bullish on their1Q or even 2Q earnings with a higher ASP (e.g., higher price increase vs 4Q25’s level). TheDRAM spot price remained broadly stable this week, posting 50%+ QoQ, but NAND was upstrongly (10%+ WoW) due to ongoing shortage concern. Very strong Feb sales/exports; up more than 150% YoYWe were surprised by very strong Feb sales (Nanya Tech: +587% YoY) and exports (Korea: +161% YoY). Given that such strong top-line growth is mostly based onconventional memory price strengths (DDR4, DDR5, NAND) and mix improvement (withHBM3e and eSSD), industry average of OP margin should easily exceed 60%+ (DRAM) or30%+ (NAND). March sales/exports/margins should rise further vs Feb given that ASP isexpected to rise continuously (including new contract price for DDR5). In our view, it isclearly a super-cycle. Separately, we witnessed exceptionally weak China domesticsmartphone shipments (Jan: only 21mn units–down 16% YoY, far below the normallevel of 30mn). This is mostly related to the memory chip shortage or exceptionally highprice (production cut following significantly high BOM). Hynix’s Yongin fab ahead of Samsung’s P5Samsung Electronics and SK Hynixare constructing new greenfield fabs in Pyeongtaek and Yongin, respectively (~1.5-hour drive from Seoul). What we learned from our recentchannel check: (1) Hynix’s Yongin fab is ~30% bigger than Samsung’s P5 (5th fab inPyeongtaek) in terms of clean room space (~400k wpm possible vs ~300k wpm); (2)early shell fab completion is expected for Hynix’s Yongin (May 2027) vs P5 (likely late2027); and (3) mass production should start in 3Q27 (Yongin) vs 1H28 (P5). Overall,Korean chipmakers’newly constructing fabs look much bigger than ever using threefloors (e.g., 200k wpm as a max per fab using only two floors over the past 10-20 years,but three floors are currently planned for Yongin and P5 fabs). That said, we still expectlow impact on global memory chip supply by 1H28 due to pilot-run and capacity ramp-upprocess ahead of large-scale mass production (e.g., 100k+ wafer input per monthpossible only in 2H28–output mostly in late 2028 or 2029). Robust February datapoints: Korea exports & Nanya sales Korea semis exports - US$bn/month Korea semis exports - YoY change in monthly US$bn Exhibit4:Softening MoM growth seen in Feb but still all-time highlevel (NT$15.6bn; +2% MoM)Nanya Tech–Monthly sales trend China smartphone shipments Exhibit6:Jan smartphone shipments wereonly20.7mn units(-9%MoM) due to memory shortage or BOM increaseChina smartphone–monthly shipment Exhibit7:Jan smartphone shipments dropped 16% YoY; memoryshortage continuously concernedChina smartphone–monthly shipment YoY Exhibit9:Foreign brands shipment declined 14%/37% YoY inDec/Jan after 128% YoY growth in Nov 2025China smartphone–foreign brands’ shipment YoY China smartphone–foreign brands’ shipment Memory spot/contract price trend Exhibit10: Price broadly stable in early Mar but stillatrecord high-level of $39; robust rally was observed in Oct (+70%) and Nov(+60%) and Jan (+25%) months as well16Gb DDR5 spot price–daily, Jul ’23-Mar ‘26 Exhibit11:MoM growth decelerated to +10% inFeb following Janrally (25%) vs +60-120% range during Oct-Nov; stable in Mar16Gb DDR5 spot month-average price–MoM change,Jul ’23-Mar ‘26 Exhibit 13: DDR5 and DDR4 contract prices no longer risesignificantly vs past three months (more than doubled throughNov/Dec/Jan), but high level retained16Gb DDR5 vs 16Gb DDR4 contract price change - MoM, Oct ‘22-Feb ‘26 Exhibit 12: DDR4 and DDR5 contract prices are similar at US$30(16Gb) – DDR5 price premium no longer exists due to DDR4shortage16Gb DDR5 vs 16Gb DDR4 contract price trend, Oct ‘22-Feb ‘26 Exhibit15:Still up 15-20% in Feb/early-Mar2026 vs40-70%MoMin Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan512Gb NAND wafer spot month-average–MoM change,Mar’21-Mar‘26 512Gb NAND wafer spot price–weekly,Dec’20-Mar‘26 Exhibit17:Jan/Feb-26 prices