人力资本指数加2026：方法论说明（英）

METHODOLOGY NOTE © 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; HCI Plus Methodology Benoît Decerf, Ritika D’Souza, Norbert Schady, Joana Silva,and Brian Stacy 1Introduction Human capital—the health, knowledge, skills, and resilience accumulated over alifetime—is wealth embodied in people. Investments in human capital can increaseindividual productivity, drive sustainable growth and poverty reduction, and supportgreater social cohesion. The benefits of these investments, however, may take time The World Bank launched the Human Capital Index (HCI) to highlight theimportance of investments in human capital and to benchmark key components ofhuman capital across countries. This HCI is an international metric that measuresthe amount of human capital a child born today can be expected to attain by age 18,given the risks of poor health and education that prevail in the country where they The HCI was released in October 2018, covering 157 countries. An update in 2020provided a pre-COVID-19 baseline of human capital outcomes for 174 countries,with historical data for 2010. Since its launch, the HCI has spurred additionalpolitical attention to investments in human capital, encouraging action where it was previously lacking. Countries track their progress on the index, and some have usedit as a starting point for national human capital development plans and to set Building on this momentum, this note describes the main features and methodologyof a revised indicator of human capital accumulation capturingearnings potential(HCI+), which is based on the same foundations as the HCI, but the HCI+ adjustsand extends the HCI in several ways. First, while the HCI focuses on the humancapital accumulation of children under 18, the HCI+ also considers human capitalaccumulation through higher education and skills acquisition during working life.This revision recognizes that human capital accumulation does not end withschooling but continues at work, reflecting recent evidence that on-the-job The HCI+ tracks human capital accumulation across three domains, namely health,education, and on-the-job learning. Each domain accounts for the impact of severalvariables on productivity. The “health and nutrition” domain considers stunting andadult mortality. The “education” domain considers years of schooling, learningoutcomes (harmonized test scores), and participation in tertiary education. The The HCI+ defines a unit of human capital through its impact on potential earnings.In a nutshell, one additional unit of human capital increases potential earnings by1 percent. At least, this interpretation of human capital units is approximativelycorrectfor small changes,like those occurring within a country over a few years’period or like those considered when comparing two countries with similar human The HCI+ is defined as the human capital of an individual picked at random in theworking-age population. To be policy relevant, the HCI+ does not consider the currentworking-age population, whose human capital reflects the policies andoutcomes of past decades. Rather, the HCI+ considers acounterfactualpopulationwhose human capital reflects current policies and outcomes. This is the philosophyof the HCI, which is borrowed from life expectancy at birth. The idea is to consider a In summary, the HCI+ reflects advances in measurement, while continuing to useeasily recognizable and consistently measured human capital outcomes and anaggregation methodology that is transparent and intuitive, with links to productivity This note describes the proposed methodology for the next HCI update. The note isorganized as follows. Section 2 presents a conceptual framework for the HCI+,including criteria guiding its design. Section 3 lays out the HCI+’