英特尔、AMD：2025年第四季度PC CPU渠道动态——愿你生活在有趣的时代...

Intel, AMD: Q425 PC CPU channel dynamics - may you live ininteresting times... The Q4 PC market was flattish QoQ, with shipments somewhat above pre-COVIDlevels (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 2).Overall PC shipments grew ~10% YoY in Q4, better than the~9% increase seen in Q3 (Exhibit 3). Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917 CPU shipments seemed to remain in parity with overall PCs in the quarter, withCPUs ~2% above and in-line with the ~2% observed in Q3(Exhibit 4,Exhibit 5). Q4notebook CPUs were ~2% above PCs, vs ~2% above in Q3. Desktop CPUs were ~4%above PCs in Q4 vs ~2% in Q3 (Exhibit 6-Exhibit 9). Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454 Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461 The forthcoming PC / CPU dynamics are going to be interesting...while CPU havebeen shipping mostly coincident with PCs for the last couple of quarters the math stillsuggests they have overshipped by >50M units over the last couple of years. And giventhe building dynamics in the industry around memory price increases, we see potential fora double-whammy with both risk to PC unit shipments as well as a possible workdown ofprior CPU overship (though perhaps the way this gets worked down is by the companiespivoting available capacity to servers). Nevertheless, Intel and AMD commentary around PCoutlook appears only modestly circumspect at this point (Exhibit 10); we wonder if thingscould grow worse as we move through the year. AMD gained substantial desktop and notebook CPU unit and revenue share in thequarter, likely due to both their product portfolio and Intel’s constraints.AMD gained~3 points of desktop unit share in the quarter at 34.2%, with revenue share up ~2 points(Exhibit 11,Exhibit 12). AMD’s notebook CPU unit share grew over 3 points in the quarterto ~21.8%, with ARM share roughly flattish and Intel share down over 3 points (Exhibit 13).Notebook revenue share was up ~3 points for AMD to ~24.9% (Exhibit 14). Overall clientCPU ASPs were flattish QoQ (Exhibit 15). AMD’s notebook ASPs fell ~3% QoQ, and sit ata discount to Intel parts as Intel’s notebook ASPs were up ~1% QoQ. Intel’s desktop ASPsfell ~1% QoQ, while AMD’s desktops ASP’s fell ~6% QoQ, with AMD remaining at a sizablepremium to Intel (Exhibit 16, Exhibit 17). Intel’s server share losses also accelerated in the quarter given their misexecutionaround their capacity footprint.ARM and AMD both gained a little under 1 point of serverCPU unit share in the quarter, with Intel losing almost ~2 points of share. In the x86 space,AMD gained ~2 points of revenue share from Intel (Exhibit 18, Exhibit 19) now sitting at41%. Both Intel and AMD noted strong AI-driven server CPU demand, though Intel has haddifficulty capitalizing on it given they missed the opportunity to have capacity in place toserve it sufficiently; we shall see how the 2H plays out here as they bring more online. We remain a bit concerned about channel dynamics, now exacerbated by potentialPC headwinds and see the trajectory as a risk to both Intel and AMD.We shall see ifserver CPU upside and/or AI accelerators can help to offset it. We rate Intel MP, $36 PT, and AMD MP, $235 PT. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS INTC (Market-Perform, $36):Intel's problems have broken through to the forefront. AMD (Market-Perform, $235):AI expectations remain high, but a new deal with OpenAI has the prospect to drive further(possibly substantial) growth. DETAILS EXHIBIT 6:Notebook CPU shipments were in-line withnotebooks in Q4... PCs include notebooks and detachable x86 tabletsSource: Mercury Research, IDC, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 17:Desktop ASPs were down QoQ for AMD andslightly for Intel, with AMD parts remaining a sizablepremium to Intel's in the quarter EXHIBIT 18:Intel server CPU unit share was down almost ~2 points in the quarter, with AMD’s server CPU unit shareup ~1 point as ARM gained ~1 point of unit share...