银行贷款标准的变化与宏观经济：来自蒙古的证据

Changes in Bank LendingStandards and the Poghosyan Tigran, Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal,Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush,Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene, Gerelmaa WP/25/262 IMFWorking Papers describe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published to The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethoseof the author(s)and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, 2025DEC IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Changes in Credit Standards and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from MongoliaPrepared by Poghosyan Tigran, Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal,Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush, Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene, Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun Authorized for distribution byThomas HelblingDecember 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks in Mongolia. Usingbank credit surveys and a newly constructed indicator of changes in lending standards, adjusted formacroeconomic and bank-specific factors influencing credit demand, we identify the impact of credit supplydisruptions on key macroeconomic variables. Our findings reveal that one standard deviation shock to creditsupply leads to an initial reduction in total lending growth, output growth, and inflation. Decomposing theshocks into credit supply components we find that shocks to enterprise and household lending also havesimilar effects on respective lending growth rates. However, household credit supply shocks have a RECOMMENDED CITATION:Poghosyan Tigran, Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal, TserendavaaTsend-Ayush, Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene, Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun. 2025. “Changes in Bank Lending Standards and WORKING PAPERS Changes in Credit Standards andthe Macroeconomy: Evidence from Preparedby Poghosyan Tigran,Davaasukh Damdinjav,DulamzayaBatjargal,Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush,Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene,Gerelmaa Contents I.Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................3 III.Data and Stylized Facts.............................................................................................................................................6A.Quarterly lending survey by the Bank of Mongolia......................................................................................6B.Stylized facts.....................................................................................................................................................7 VI.Conclusions...............................................................................................................................................................20 References.........................................................................................................................................................................22 Figures Figure 1. Credit demand and standard diffusion indices................................................................................................8Figure 2. GDP growth and exchange rate depreciation..................................................................................................8Figure 3. Credit growth........................................................................................................................................................9Figure 4. Residuals............................................................................................................................................................13Figure 5. IRFs for Credit Supply Shock: Total Loans....................................................................................................15Figure 6. IRFs for Credit Supply Shock: Enterprize Loans...........................................................................................16Figure 7. IRFs for Credit Supply Shock: Household Loans..........................................................................................17 Tables Table 1. Variable Definitions.............................................................................................................................................10Table 2. OLS estimates.....................................................................................................................................................11Table 3. Bank past credit standards: Enterprise loans.................................................................................................12Table 4. Bank past credit standards: Household loans.................................................................................................12 I.Introduction How do changes in credit supply impact the macroeconomy? Understanding this relationship is especially crucialfor policymakers in emerging economies like Mongol