AI驱动的生产力情景

AI-DrivenFinal Draft Report ProductivityScenarios Prepared for the G7Finance Ministers andCentral Bank Governors’Meeting under theCanadian G7 Presidency,May 2025, Banff, Alberta Paul SamsonS. Yash KalashNikolina Zivkovic Credits President, CIGIPaul Samson Research Director, Digital EconomyS. Yash Kalash Director, Program ManagementDianna English Senior Publications EditorJennifer Goyder Publications EditorSusan Bubak Graphic DesignerSami Chouhdary About CIGI The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)is an independent, non-partisan think tank whose peer-reviewed research and trusted analysis influence policymakers to innovate. Our global network of multidisciplinaryresearchers and strategic partnerships provide policysolutions for the digital era with one goal: to improve people’slives everywhere. Headquartered in Waterloo, Canada, CIGIhas received support from the Government of Canada, theGovernment of Ontario and founder Jim Balsillie. À propos du CIGI Le Centre pour l’innovation dans la gouvernanceinternationale (CIGI) est un groupe de réflexion indépendantet non partisan dont les recherches évaluées par des pairset les analyses fiables incitent les décideurs à innover. Grâceà son réseau mondial de chercheurs pluridisciplinaires etde partenariats stratégiques, le CIGI offre des solutionspolitiques adaptées à l’ère numérique dans le seul butd’améliorer la vie des gens du monde entier. Le CIGI, dont lesiège se trouve à Waterloo, au Canada, bénéficie du soutiendu gouvernement du Canada, du gouvernement de l’Ontarioet de son fondateur, Jim Balsillie. Copyright © 2025 by the Centre for International Governance Innovation The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the Centre for International Governance Innovationor its Board of Directors. For publications enquiries, please contact publications@cigionline.org. The text of this work is licensed under CC BY 4.0. To view a copy of this licence,visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. For reuse or distribution, please include this copyright notice. This work maycontain content (including but not limited to graphics, charts and photographs)used or reproduced under licence or with permission from third parties.Permission to reproduce this content must be obtained from third parties directly. Centre for International Governance Innovation and CIGI are registeredtrademarks. 67 Erb Street WestWaterloo, ON, Canada N2L 6C2www.cigionline.org Table ofContents ivAbout the Authors ivAcronyms and Abbreviations Executive Summary Introduction 3Definitions of AI and Productivity Economic Growth and Productivity Projections Weak for G7and Other Countries AI Is Transformative, but the Productivity Data Lags How Transformative and Scalable Are AI Capabilities? Description of Methodology, Drawing on AI-Related Indices AI-Driven Productivity Scenarios for the G7 Key Takeaways Appendix 1: Analysis of AI-Related Indices Appendix 2: Country Profiles Appendix 3: Key Takeaways for G7 Policy Makers About the Authors Acronyms andAbbreviations Paul Samsonis president of CIGI, working oninternational governance with a focus on policy solutionsfor the digital era. He was previously a senior officialwith the Government of Canada, including at the deputyminister level. Among other positions, Paul servedas Canada’s deputy for finance at the Asia-PacificEconomic Cooperation forum and as long-time co-chairof the G20 Framework Working Group on the globaleconomy. Earlier in his career, he worked at severalthink tanks and universities in Geneva; Washington,DC;Oslo; and Boston. Paul completed a doctorate andan M.A. in international relations at the GraduateInstitute, Geneva, and a B.A. at the University of BritishColumbia. He completed post-doctoral studies in globalenvironmental assessment at Harvard University. 5Gfifth-generationAGIartificial general intelligenceAIartificial intelligenceAPIsapplication programming interfacesASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian NationsAutoMLautomated machine learningFDIforeign direct investmentFIIforeign institutional investorGDPRGeneral Data Protection RegulationGPUsgraphic processing unitsIMFInternational Monetary FundIPintellectual propertyLLMslarge language modelsMFPmultifactor productivityMLOPsmachine-learning operationsOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operationand DevelopmentPPPspublic-private partnershipsR&Dresearch and developmentSMEssmall and medium-sized enterprisesSTEMscience, technology, engineering andmathematicsTPUstensor processing unitsUAEUnited Arab EmiratesWIPOWorld Intellectual Property Organization S. Yash Kalashis research director of digital economyat CIGI. He is an expert in strategy, public policy, digitaltechnology and financial services. He has experience inemerging markets across India, MENA (Middle East andNorth Africa) and the Asia-Pacific and a distinguishedtrack record advising governments and the private se